My first poll: BB special makes 2 pair

[topspin]

Table is unremarkable. Players are of the usual fishy type, but no one seems insane as yet.

First page of comments in white as usual, please.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (8.5 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero ...

[droolie]

<font color="white">I think you have to raise this flop. Your probably winning but your hand is vulnerable and you really want to get the UTG's to fold right here. Waiting for the turn is more likely to cost you the pot than win it for you. </font>

[TwoShedsJackson]

<font color="white"> You need to wait until the turn, I think. Most of the players you're playing against wont even considered not having odds to call on a gutshot draw, they'll call anyway.

There are plenty of cards you don't want to see on the turn - its better to wait and raise the double-sized bet on the turn.

Isn't there a very similar hand to this somewhere in SSH?</font>

[JordanIB]

This is a no-brainer, no?

Unless I'm doing something drastically wrong in my play, I'm raising this every time.

Board is way too coordinated to let either MP1, or especially the others, chase cheaply.

[JordanIB]

[ QUOTE ]
Most of the players you're playing against wont even considered not having odds to call on a gutshot draw, they'll

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't that precisely a reason to raise? Because others will call with incorrect odds?

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
<font color="white"> This is a no-brainer, no? </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it too late to ask for an edit to white text, at least for the first page of comments? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
<font color="white"> You need to wait until the turn, I think. Most of the players you're playing against wont even considered not having odds to call on a gutshot draw, they'll call anyway./color]

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="white">It doesn't matter if they consider the odds or not. You're offering them poor odds, and they are making a mistake by calling, increasing your portion of the pot (equity) more than their own. (See: ToP)

The board is way too coordinated to let them draw cheaply and there is no guarantee that the flop bettor will bet on the turn (they could be on a draw as well). I raise this every time.</font>

-d

[meep_42]

Oh, and fold pf. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

One gapped suiteds in a small field aren't worth it, to me. Make either card a 9, and I'd call.

-d

[TwoShedsJackson]

I found the hand in SSH on page 160-161 - Ed Miller's advice there is to wait for the turn although the pot is larger on the flop (12.5 bets versus 8.5) - judging by the poll I'm the only one who thinks you should wait for the turn, I must be weak /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[Entity]

<font color="white">This is an insanely coordinated board. Wait until the turn to raise for protection and for value; a good portion of the deck, at this point, are cards that you'd rather not see (spades, J's, 9's, K's, A's). BTW, it's clear you missed something in typing up this hand history -- BB checks... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

BTW, this example seemed almost straight out of SSH, and I don't think the pot size being slightly smaller changes things much. It's because of how vulnerable your hand is (and how much your equity will go up on the turn) that you wait.</font>

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I found the hand in SSH on page 160-161 - Ed Miller's advice there is to wait for the turn although the pot is larger on the flop (12.5 bets versus 8.5) - judging by the poll I'm the only one who thinks you should wait for the turn, I must be weak /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
You aren't the only one who would rather wait for the turn. This isn't necessarily about taking away odds for gutshots and such; it's moreso that you would like the advantage of seeing the action on the turn and the turn card before you decide how to approach this pot.

"With a very vulnerable hand that will often be ruined on the turn, and that you cannot easily protect, you should frequently wait to raise..."

Rob

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I found the hand in SSH on page 160-161 - Ed Miller's advice there is to wait for the turn although the pot is larger on the flop (12.5 bets versus 8.5) - judging by the poll I'm the only one who thinks you should wait for the turn, I must be weak /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
You aren't the only one who would rather wait for the turn. This isn't necessarily about taking away odds for gutshots and such; it's moreso that you would like the advantage of seeing the action on the turn and the turn card before you decide how to approach this pot.

"With a very vulnerable hand that will often be ruined on the turn, and that you cannot easily protect, you should frequently wait to raise..."

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you wait for the turn as well if Hero held AQ instead of T8?

[phixxx]

Isn't this hand in SSHE

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
I found the hand in SSH on page 160-161

[/ QUOTE ]

There are a few significant differences in this hand:

1) The pot is smaller in size. It's only 8.5 SB on the flop in the post, whereas it's 10.5 SB in the example. On the flop, the Ed Miller hand has 2 more bets going in before hero acts, but the one here has only one more bet.
2) There are fewer players in the pot, so there is a smaller chance of those hands being there to stick around.
3) There is a caller in between the bettor and Hero in the example. Here, hero the very next action.
4) The gutshots are now mathematically falling short on their draw (assuming that they don't have the flush draw to go with it). The book hand offers the field 7.25:1 after the raise, but the other one offers only 5.75:1, which makes the 3.5 outs for the gutshot come in just a little bit short (FTOP money).

When you combine these things, I think raising is better.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I found the hand in SSH on page 160-161

[/ QUOTE ]

There are a few significant differences in this hand:

1) The pot is smaller in size. It's only 8.5 SB on the flop in the post, whereas it's 10.5 SB in the example. On the flop, the Ed Miller hand has 2 more bets going in before hero acts, but the one here has only one more bet.
2) There are fewer players in the pot, so there is a smaller chance of those hands being there to stick around.
3) There is a caller in between the bettor and Hero in the example. Here, hero the very next action.
4) The gutshots are now mathematically falling short on their draw (assuming that they don't have the flush draw to go with it). The book hand offers the field 7.25:1 after the raise, but the other one offers only 5.75:1, which makes the 3.5 outs for the gutshot come in just a little bit short (FTOP money).

When you combine these things, I think raising is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

How much protection does raising offer here? I'm wondering because most hands that have gutshots also have additional outs, and I'm not sure if they'll be folding here. AJ is double gutted and is not folding. K9 has a gutshot, an ugly overcard, and a BD straight -- so that's somewhere between 5 and 6 outs. If it's something like K/images/graemlins/spade.gif9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, then he's got a one-card BD flush as well -- 6.5 outs.

If you raise, a calculating opponent would need slightly less than 7 outs to be able to continue with the hand, though implied odds probably bring this number down to 6. So what hands can you force out by raising the flop here? I'm thinking folding hands like A9/K9 is possible, but unlikely. You aren't folding spades, though you might fold a hand like A/images/graemlins/spade.gif7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, but that hand isn't really much of a threat.

I agree that this question is different, but I'm not sure that the collective differences add up to a raise.

Rob

[JoshuaD]

There's no point to post in white. Either people will read the thread before they post or they won't. It being in white won't stop them from highlighting it and then replying.

Also, your post is long enough that they won't accidently read the posts below it.

Is there something I'm not seeing? Or can we stop this "White the first page" stuff?

Oh, and I voted raise, you're very vulnerable here, and you can put the entire field to 2 bets. Alot of players will fold their gutshots for two even if they've got the odds to call. So you're still protecting.

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
There's no point to post in white. Either people will read the thread before they post or they won't. It being in white won't stop them from highlighting it and then replying.

[/ QUOTE ]

I asked for posting in white for the same reason that people should cut off the action at the decision point -- it's too easy to accidentally read someone else's opinion and have that skew your results before you reply. At my screen resolution, I can see at least the first 3 or 4 posts after the poll at the same time as the poll, and it's often hard to resist seeing a key point or two. With white text you have to do it on purpose.

[Bodhi]

I think I am correct to wait for the turn to raise. Bottom two pair holds up less often than most expect, and with this coordinated flop the turn card can destroy your chances.

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
I found the hand in SSH on page 160-161 - Ed Miller's advice there is to wait for the turn although the pot is larger on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

This was the point of the post. I unfortunately missed that button cold-called in the SSH version, so I actually thought it was identical to that hand (the pot in the poll is 2SB smaller) but frankly I don't think that 2SB is big enough to affect your decision either way.

I normally raise in this situation about 100% of the time. I've noticed the discrepancy with the SSH advice and frankly I'm not terribly convinced by the argument there yet, so I thought posting it as a poll might generate some more interesting discussion than if I stirred up the torches and pitchforks by suggesting a different line of action than SSH /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[Bodhi]

I don't think you can make it too expensive though. With implied odds even someone with a gutshot is correct to call your raise - did you think about that?

What's more, raising the flop and the turn might actually give draws odds to call your turn-raise too. If you call on the flop, the pot will be the right size for your turn raise to be effective.

Therefore, because raising this flop does not protect your hand, you should call and aim to protect it on fourth street.

[Bodhi]

No. The flop bet is half-sized, so raising does not put the "field to 2 bets." Remember that a lot of people with gutshots also have overcards here, giving them more outs. Raising this flop is not going to get anyone with ~6 outs to fold.

Because you cannot protect your hand on the flop, you must wait for a safe turn card to raise.

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
AJ is double gutted and is not folding. K9 has a gutshot, an ugly overcard, and a BD straight -- so that's somewhere between 5 and 6 outs. If it's something like K/images/graemlins/spade.gif9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, then he's got a one-card BD flush as well -- 6.5 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think we all agree that we have equity to raise the turn, so the consideration is whether raising the turn instead can force out some hands that might otherwise stay in and suck out on us on the river, hence making this a more +EV.

AJ isn't folding the turn either, nor are two spades, so I think we can eliminate those hands from our consideration of when to raise.

We should be able to force out weak hands like 76 (not spades), a lone 9, etc that might call a single bet with implied odds. Frankly if I had A9 or K9 (again not spades) I'd fold for two cold, but I suppose others might be more loose.

In summation, I think there are very few hands that call 2 on the flop that wouldn't call 2 on the turn, and vice versa. IMHO all this argues for just being straightforward and raising the flop. Deconstruction welcome though /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AJ is double gutted and is not folding. K9 has a gutshot, an ugly overcard, and a BD straight -- so that's somewhere between 5 and 6 outs. If it's something like K/images/graemlins/spade.gif9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, then he's got a one-card BD flush as well -- 6.5 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think we all agree that we have equity to raise the turn, so the consideration is whether raising the turn instead can force out some hands that might otherwise stay in and suck out on us on the river, hence making this a more +EV.

AJ isn't folding the turn either, nor are two spades, so I think we can eliminate those hands from our consideration of when to raise.

We should be able to force out weak hands like 76 (not spades), a lone 9, etc that might call a single bet with implied odds. Frankly if I had A9 or K9 (again not spades) I'd fold for two cold, but I suppose others might be more loose.

In summation, I think there are very few hands that call 2 on the flop that wouldn't call 2 on the turn, and vice versa. IMHO all this argues for just being straightforward and raising the flop. Deconstruction welcome though /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

We also have to consider what approach is best for the times when there are hands like AJ, K9 (with one /images/graemlins/spade.gif), or K/images/graemlins/spade.gifQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, and a 3/images/graemlins/club.gif falls on the turn. In those instances, those hands will often still call two cold on the turn, so you earn much more by checkraising the turn and forcing them to call two cold when they either have to call, or should call.

You also lose less in those situations when an unsafe card comes, and action dictates that you should fold. (K/images/graemlins/spade.gif falls and action comes to you bet and raised).

As is, this hand is really close, but I lean toward calling this flop and re-evaluating on turn (checkraising a blank, checkcalling if the card is somewhat scary but action is bad, checkfolding if the action is bad).

Rob

[Bodhi]

Ok, here's the part I think you're missing. I wait till the turn to raise here not so much to force out other hands, but to see if the turn card destroys my bottom-two-pair. My hand is much more likely to hold up against one more river card than it is against two more on 4th and 5th streets.

Bottom two pair is marginal on the flop, but significantly stronger with a safe turn card.

[meep_42]

Wouldn't the turn checking through on a blank be a disaster, though?

-d

[Bodhi]

Yeah it would. You would need to be very confident that MP1 will bet again when a blank falls. I don't think there's anything wrong with betting-out when a blank falls on 4th st.

[Smasharoo]

In summation, I think there are very few hands that call 2 on the flop that wouldn't call 2 on the turn, and vice versa. IMHO all this argues for just being straightforward and raising the flop. Deconstruction welcome though


Think about that for a minute and then why you'd want to raise the turn. Your two pair is extremely vulnerable and extremely difficult to protect on this flop. Raising the turn makes much more sense here. If people will as you've asserted call two BB cold to chase flushes and straights with one card to come why in the world wouldn't you charge them on the turn?

[Bodhi]

This poll proves that the majority of Hold'em players, even here at 2+2, don't think out their flop action in conjunction with what might happen on later streets. These results also make me very happy in expectation of the extra profit I look forward to this evening. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Bottom two pair actually has a similarity to how you play a draw, except that you're hoping the board doesn't improve. You get aggressive on the turn or river, but just hang around on the flop to see what develops. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Wouldn't the turn checking through on a blank be a disaster, though?

-d

[/ QUOTE ]
It would be bad, but I think MP1 will continue to bet this flop the vast majority of the time.

Rob

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
Your two pair is extremely vulnerable and extremely difficult to protect on this flop. Raising the turn makes much more sense here. If people will as you've asserted call two BB cold to chase flushes and straights with one card to come why in the world wouldn't you charge them on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Both you and Rob bring up this point, which is what I think I overlooked in this hand.

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
This poll proves that the majority of Hold'em players, even here at 2+2, don't think out their flop action in conjunction with what might happen on later streets.

Bottom two pair actually has a similarity to how you play a draw, except that you're hoping the board doesn't improve. You get aggressive on the turn or river, but just hang around on the flop to see what develops. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you forgot to add "on this scary board" to your last couple of posts. Always waiting until the turn with two pair would be horrible.

[jay1313]

<font color="white"> </font>I raise here, I have the best hand but I am very vulnerable. I still have 4 solid outs and the lead and I want it heads up. You can't make the flush draws fold but you can make them pay dearly for it. <font color="white"> </font>

My question is what happens if I am three bet? If I was MP2 with the AQ I may three bet and would definitely do so if it was the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif. I don't think I have enough to cap this on flop and would probably move to check/call mode, if another spade fell, I get lost.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
How much protection does raising offer here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's really close. I don't offer anything that will break the argument in favor of raising, but it's close enough that I would lean towards raising here instead of calling. Most of this is because there are no callers between Hero and the bettor - you actually have a reasonable chance of getting heads up here, whereas it's basically impossible with someone trapped in the middle.

[ QUOTE ]
If you raise, a calculating opponent would need slightly less than 7 outs to be able to continue with the hand, though implied odds probably bring this number down to 6.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps, but thinking player would also be wrong in his assessment, because his overcard is worthless. This is a big FTOP error compounded by the fact that he's leaning on implied odds that aren't there.

Of course, the raise only makes things easier if you manage to shut everyone else out. Otherwise, you're stuck with a tough hand.

I think this hand is one of the hands that falls under the proviso given in SSH of making things simpler instead of most profitable.

[Smasharoo]

I raise here, I have the best hand but I am very vulnerable. I still have 4 solid outs and the lead and I want it heads up. You can't make the flush draws fold but you can make them pay dearly for it.


Yes, nothing says "pay dearly" like getting 5 to 1, likely more, to call a flush draw 4 handed on the flop. Oh the horror. Much worse than having to call two cald getting 3/1 on the turn.

Because of all the redraws you're vulnerable to on this board this isn't even vaguely close. Raising the flop is an error.

[meep_42]

I repeat, there is no guarantee that you can face the field with 2 cold on the turn. The flop bettor could be betting his JT and not bet the turn for you. With your position, I think you MUST bet out a blank turn, even a 40% chance this gets checked through would be a bigger error than raising here when you have the best hand.

If you were in late position with a bettor to your right, I would agree that waiting is more prudent, but with poor position on the field on a drawy board, I like to make things simple.

-d

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
Because you cannot protect your hand on the flop, you must wait for a safe turn card to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I want any lone J, any lone 9, any K to fold. them sticking around all decrease my chances of winning this pot. getting a single spade to fold is a nice plus as well. we have the opportunity to face two random hands with two bets cold in a manner which protects our hand from a lot of random cards we'd like to see gone. hell, we're making the odds mighty slim for hands like K8.

think of the gutshot plus overcards examples as we normally think of flush draws; that is, hands you can't protect against in this situation, and you gotta let them come along for the ride.


However, that doesn't mean we can't protect our hand against a lot of stuff we'd like to see gone.

raise.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I repeat, there is no guarantee that you can face the field with 2 cold on the turn. The flop bettor could be betting his JT and not bet the turn for you. With your position, I think you MUST bet out a blank turn, even a 40% chance this gets checked through would be a bigger error than raising here when you have the best hand.

If you were in late position with a bettor to your right, I would agree that waiting is more prudent, but with poor position on the field on a drawy board, I like to make things simple.

-d

[/ QUOTE ]
There is no way you can guarantee a turn bet in the SSH example; this has no difference along that line.

Rob

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't make the flush draws fold but you can make them pay dearly for it.


Yes, nothing says "pay dearly" like getting 5 to 1, likely more, to call a flush draw 4 handed on the flop. Oh the horror. Much worse than having to call two cald getting 3/1 on the turn.

Because of all the redraws you're vulnerable to on this board this isn't even vaguely close. Raising the flop is an error.

[/ QUOTE ]

The flush draws are not a reason to raise. They will fold neither the flop nor the turn. Raising the flop is because you're hoping to drive out gutshots, not a flush draw or an open-ended/double-gutted straight.

I'm still thinking over all the comment people have made, but saying that the decision is "not even vaguely close" is stretching it.

[meep_42]

I didn't say there wasa difference in that regard, I was saying I disagreed. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

And you have better position in the SSH example, iirc. (I'm at work so I don't have it in front of me.)

-d

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
And you have better position in the SSH example, iirc. (I'm at work so I don't have it in front of me.)

[/ QUOTE ]

You have 10/images/graemlins/club.gif8/images/graemlins/club.gif in the big blind. Two people limp, and someone in middle position raises. The button coldcalls, the SB folds, and you call. The limpers call (10.5SB). The flop is Q/images/graemlins/heart.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gif8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, giving you bottom two pair. You check, and it is checked to the raiser, who bets. The button calls (12.5SB). You should just call.

I don't think there's a significant enough difference in the hands (slightly smaller pot; one caller in between) to change the appropriate action postflop, which is to call and checkraise a favorable turn.

Rob

[droolie]

The reason why I voted for raise was due to the difference. I liked the idea of making both checkers have to cold call two bets and getting HU with the raiser. Lacking the possibility of getting this HU is a big difference to me. I will concede that waiting for the turn is probably better even with the differences but it is very close.

[Bodhi]

Sure this board is scarrier than most, but bottom two-pair also gets screwed by a lot of not-so-scary boards! I learned this the hard way, and then began to notice similar advice from some experts.

[btspider]

I said raise the flop. Sure a bad turn card could come, but we probably will be seeing the river with this hand unless another Q comes or a party breaks out and we aren't invited on a scary turn card.

One problem I see is that a passive line sucks with our relative position here. If a scare card does come and MP1 bets the turn, are we folding for one bet out of fear of a check-raise? Calling and letting baby solo spades or gutshots see the river cheaply? Calling and then calling a check-raise with odds to boat up (i'm assuming its close.. didn't count explicitly). So a turn card doesn't automatically *destroy* our hand and give us a cheap way to get out. If we raise the flop, we could always take a free card on a really scary card if we fear a check-raise.

I'd prefer to wait for equity when others have already voluntarily decided to continue in the hand. I think we're too worried about limpers who have done nothing yet postflop except check. Its also better to wait when we can *really* push our equity on the turn... by raising the field or something. Anyone with a big draw is staying in for 2 bets on the turn anyway, but anyone with a weak draw will often just call one on the flop (but not two) just to peel off a card.

Then again, I truly suck at the wait until the turn concept. I'll have to read most of this thread later.