Reluctantly, I put short stack all-in. Did I need to do this?

[jcm4ccc]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP2 (t1445)
CO (t1332)
Button (t1187)
Hero (t1155)
BB (t226)
UTG (t5196)
MP1 (t2959)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t300</font>, BB calls t76 (All-In).

Flop: (t526) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t526) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t526) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t526

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Th 7c (high card, king).
BB has Qd 4h (one pair, queens).
Outcome: BB wins t452. Hero wins t74. </font>

[Benholio]

I think you did have to do this. You are almost 50% against any two, and you are getting 2.5:1 on your money.

Also, you still have fold equity for another orbit if you lose.

A quick rundown of ICM numbers for the situation, to reinforce it:

Call and Win: .120 equity
Call and lose: .083 equity
Fold: .095 equity

So calling you are gambling .012 equity for a chance to win .025 equity, giving you over 2:1 odds that way too.

[pshreck]

No. You have 10 high and he's not folding.

[FishBurger]

I think this is a decent play. You're 48% against a random hand. You're risking T150 for a chance at t526 (29%). So, you're putting in 29% of the pot with a 48% chance to win. Pot odds say to put him in.

If you push and lose you're down to ~t900. If you fold, you have t1075 -- about 1 BB difference.

I think everything says push here and hope that his hand sucks worse than yours. Sometimes that's all you can do in these SnGs.

[Benholio]

The fact that he is not folding makes T7 a decent hand. T7 holds its own against a random hand.

equity (%) win (%)/tie (%)

Hand 1: 47.9081 % [ 00.46 00.02 ] { Tc7d }
Hand 2: 52.0919 % [ 00.50 00.02 ] { random }

[pshreck]

The question is, did he need too.

I think if you have confidence in your play and want to keep a healthy stack for better spots, you fold this. If you are unhappy with losing the coinflip type situation, then dont push.

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
No. You have 10 high and he's not folding.

[/ QUOTE ]
So you like passing up 2:1 edges? It's 151 more for a 50:50 chance at gaining 375. You don't need for him to fold to make this profitable.

[ QUOTE ]
A quick rundown of ICM numbers for the situation

[/ QUOTE ]
It's too early to look at ICM, there's too many players still remaining. This is signifigantly chip +EV which is good enough.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
It's too early to look at ICM, there's too many players still remaining. This is signifigantly chip +EV which is good enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is it ever too early to look at the ICM? The ICM isn't designed to only work on the bubble, thats just when the gap between ICM $EV and CEV is the biggest. Sure, you can eyeball a situation like this and tell that it will be a +ICMEV (new term!) move, but it doesn't hurt to do the calculations to help illustrate it to others.

[captZEEbo1]

no you didn't have to do it. I see people make this play often. It's a bad idea. You are better off saving your chips. You should only be doing this if you lose, you will have &gt;10bb in my opinion. People make to big of a deal about "pot odds", pot odds aren't everything in tournaments.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
no you didn't have to do it. I see people make this play often. It's a bad idea. You are better off saving your chips. You should only be doing this if you lose, you will have &gt;10bb in my opinion. People make to big of a deal about "pot odds", pot odds aren't everything in tournaments.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you quantify what makes this a bad idea at all? Can anyone who thinks it is a bad idea to push here provide some logical analysis showing why, besides a hunch or an aversion to playing 'bad' hands?

[alexbrew]

I'm a little intrigued by the &gt;10X BB rule you have. I know on the world poker tour that would keep you from becoming a "short stack". But in on-line tourneys it seems like 85% or more of the participants are "short stacked", after the first hour. Seems like you still need to play your edges to build your stack, rather than suck into turtle mode. Otherwise people will be attacking you.

[captZEEbo1]

basically one of the fundamental ideas of sngs is to avoid coinflips at all costs (unless you can REALLY afford them). If someone pushes allin and says I have AKs, you should not be callign them with 22. It's that idea. You are better off saving your chips, b/c if you lose this "coin flip" with T7, you are left with not many chips, and you need to get a hand quickly, in order to get a steal in, otherwise you won't have much fold equity with your pushes.

[lorinda]

You are still strong enough if you lose the hand to do this.

Lori

[housenuts]

[ QUOTE ]
basically one of the fundamental ideas of sngs is to avoid coinflips at all costs (unless you can REALLY afford them). If someone pushes allin and says I have AKs, you should not be callign them with 22. It's that idea. You are better off saving your chips, b/c if you lose this "coin flip" with T7, you are left with not many chips, and you need to get a hand quickly, in order to get a steal in, otherwise you won't have much fold equity with your pushes.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you push here and it is +EV. and if you lose you still have a stack that isn't much different than before. are you trying to say that you lose fold equity on future pushes so this isn't a +EV play? i see what you're saying but that's not the case. because what if your next push you have AA and someone calls with KQ who otherwise wouldn't have if they didn't see the crap you raised with before.

[ChrisV]

I can't believe this is even getting debated. Hero still has piles of chips if he loses. He's nowhere near losing fold equity. By folding here you pass up both chip equity and the chance to eliminate a player. There are just zero good reasons not to move in.

[jcm4ccc]

Thanks for all the thoughtful replies. Interesting situation, I think. I'll probably play it the same way next time it comes up, but now I have some mathematical justification (rather than just a gut feeling) for my bet.