Capping the flop with medium overpair

[MoDOH]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Had only played for 2 orbits so no real reads. MP2 seemed very aggressive preflop and on the flop.

Button was a clown...

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, Hero calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (12.16 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, Button folds.

River: (14.16 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero...

[Smasharoo]

Well, it's agressive.

You don't think the button hit a set or has a bigger overpair?

[Fat Nicky]

I like the cap here and the bet out on the turn, especially considering your reads.

The river sucks, but I think you need to keep your trend and bet.

[chief444]

I agree with the river bet if for no other reason than there is a small chance JJ-KK folds. But if you plan to check/call then betting is definitely better.

I don't know how much I like the flop cap. I guess given the reads (if by "clown" he means maniac) then it isn't too bad.

[MoDOH]

Most PP people won´t play trips this fast. usually they wait until the turn to go crazy. no more likely it´s a 5,overcards or an overpair. And if it´s an overpair I think it´s more likely that it´s 66-88 than TT and JJ. I think at least JJ would have been threebet preflop by most PP players.

If I want to continue to play in this hand after the threebet I think capping the flop amd leading the Turn
is the best way to go here. Anyone disagree?
If The turn action would have been Bet-Call-Raise though. I would have instamucked...

[MoDOH]

Well by clown I mean just that. His bets and raises could mean anything but he wasn´t a maniac by any means, he was just an awful player

[MercTec]

I think I call the flop 3-bet and check raise the turn if a blank falls. The turn isnt a great card, but I think I still take that line.
River sucks, I don't think you're making MP2 fold, so I check/call.

[chief444]

If MP2 folds a better hand even very rarely then I think betting and folding to a raise is a much better line than check/calling.

[Wally]

anyone else thinking he made a huge mistake by not raising preflop?

[MoDOH]

could you please elaborate on why not raising preflop UTG+1 with UTG limping is such a huge mistake

[Smasharoo]

anyone else thinking he made a huge mistake by not raising preflop?


Eh, not really. It's close with 99 espcially out of position.

[Fat Nicky]

It's not a huge mistake, IMO, it's not even a mistake.

On the other hand, raising wouldn't be a mistake either.

My preference however is calling.

[MercTec]

Being that aggressive, I doubt he folds even 5% of the time here, especially in a big pot. If he's gonna fold, it's probably going to be on the turn check raise when he's faced with cold calling 2 bets after its checked to the button.

[chief444]

I'm not debating the turn. Although I don't necessarily think you could count on either MP2 checking or button betting.

But since the turn played out as it did, I think if MP2 folds a better hand a very small percentage of the time here then betting is better. What is your logic in preferring check/calling there?

[MercTec]

Well the poster said that MP2 was aggressive....not necessarily a LAG. I think that any decent player is gonna call in a big (14BB in this case) pot if you bet out. Worse, if he spiked an A or backed into a runner runner then you're gonna get raised and lose an extra bet. Check/call costs the same as a bet and call....and I want a free showdown here if possible. Maybe that's weak tight thinking....but the board sucks.

[chief444]

I would not call a raise. If you intended to call a raise then I could see the argument for check/call.

[sthief09]

TT is an easy raise and 88 is an easy limp. 99 is borderline. personally I raise with it

[MercTec]

I see your point...but don't you think a free/cheap showdown is better than squeezing out an extra BB? Plus, its always good to see exactly what hand MP2 was playing that way for future reference....in the long run I think that gets you more than a BB.

[sthief09]

at first I was going to say bet or check-fold. I changed my mind. he probably doesn't have a pocket pair lower than 99 and he's probably not calling with K-high, so a bet wouldn't have much value. I think you can check and hope he tries to bluff since he's aggressive. I don't know how well this will work considering you've shown a ton of aggression already, so he's unlikely to bet with marginal hand like 88 or KQ, or A4s if he's really aggressive preflop. I don't know which will leave you less of an underdog, betting and getting called or checking and calling a bet. The pot is too big for check-folding to be an option, especially since your opponent is aggressive.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
don't you think a free/cheap showdown is better than squeezing out an extra BB?

[/ QUOTE ]
No. Not if you can confidently fold to a raise. An extra BB here and there or very occasionally getting a better hand to fold with a bet here in a pot this size can make a huge difference to your win rate.

[MercTec]

Fair enough. I think the information on his holding can be very valuable here as well. I like both of our arguments...interesting hand.

[chief444]

stheif,

You don't think there's any way a better hand lays this down to a river bet given the aggression hero showed so far and the final board? That is where I think the value is. I definitely agree check/folding isn't a good option. But I also don't see the opponent raising as a bluff here.

[sthief09]

what better hand is going to lay down in a pot this big?

[chief444]

Fair enough. I guess I overestimate the possibility of getting a better hand to fold here. You and MercTec both make a good case for check/call.

[MoDOH]

I could definitely see a hand like JJ and maybe QQ fold this river. I don´t say that it happens often but it´s certainly plausible don´t you think?

[sthief09]

this thing is really hard to tell, because we never get to see what our opponents are folding. I always assume that my opponent will call down with any pair. I miss some bluffing opportunities by doing this, but I think overall it's a good way to look at things. we win money because our opponents play too many hands too far, not because they fold to much. you may be right. he could fold JJ or QQ sometimes, but I doubt it happens often enough to have much of an effect on the situation

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Fair enough. I guess I overestimate the possibility of getting a better hand to fold here. You and MercTec both make a good case for check/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really have no idea which is better. they seem really close to me.

[RogerZBT]

I don't think it's that plausible. What hands does that ace help that could possible be played that way? A4, A5, maybe AK, maybe 67h. They were already losing to A5 (and they were calling) and I can't buy too many people capping the flop with AK or 67h. I just can't see too many scenarios where JJ-KK fold here because of the Ace.

(Keep in mind I suck at poker.)

[Jeff W]

I think it's a small mistake not to raise 99 here. "Huge" is an exaggeration.

[MoDOH]

I checked and Villain Checked and showed me QQ and MHING