A Play with JJ.

[nepenthe]

I was in the SB with JJ. A rather aggressive player raises UTG. There was one cold-call to me, and I called. BB called.

Flop was T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

Checked to PFR who bet. Folded back to me, and I checkraised. BB called two cold. PFR 3-bet. We both called.

Turn was an offsuit A. I decided to bet. BB called. PFR now hesitated and just called.

River was an offsuit low brick. I decided I have no chance of winning this pot by checking. I bet out hoping BB will call. BB indeed did call. PFR hesitated some more, and finally folded. My JJ is good against BB's T6 suited.

[chesspain]

Your turn and river play (especially with no read on the BB) seems like chip-spewing.

[CinnamonWind]

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Your turn and river play (especially with no read on the BB) seems like chip-spewing.

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I disagree. He's ahead on the flop in all likelihood, and has no reason to think they're chasing an ace. Might as well bet the probable best hand.

[Richard Berg]

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I disagree. He's ahead on the flop in all likelihood, and has no reason to think they're chasing an ace. Might as well bet the probable best hand.

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I like his line, but not because nepenthe's likely to be ahead on a turned Ace. What is PFR 3-betting the flop with? If two pair or better then he's obviously still ahead; that leaves AT, a paired A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifx, Axs, or a big suited King as reasonable holdings. I wouldn't count on the latter being the case too often.

[CinnamonWind]

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I disagree. He's ahead on the flop in all likelihood, and has no reason to think they're chasing an ace. Might as well bet the probable best hand.

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I like his line, but not because nepenthe's likely to be ahead on a turned Ace. What is PFR 3-betting the flop with? If two pair or better then he's obviously still ahead; that leaves AT, a paired A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifx, Axs, or a big suited King as reasonable holdings. I wouldn't count on the latter being the case too often.

[/ QUOTE ]

The 3-bet on the flop says to me the PFR is not just chasing an ace, but has a made hand. I'd put him on a 88 or 99. I love the turn bet, as it makes the PFR think, and ultimately fold. That might have been a fold our hero needed!

[Richard Berg]

The hands I listed are all made hands or huge draws or both. Very very few people at Party 3/6 will 3-bet PPs worse than middle pair here (fewer than would KQs, methinks, and certainly fewer than would AT/A9/A2/A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif/QQ/JJ/T9s/etc). Frankly, if we're going to talk ranges of possible PPs given the preflop action, I'd fear a set more than I'd expect something I beat.

These are all secondary things, though. If I were Hero, the relevant decision would be whether he has aces up or just top pair. Pushing someone off a random ace might be a coup; pushing someone off top two might be more like suicide.

[chesspain]

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Your turn and river play (especially with no read on the BB) seems like chip-spewing.

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I disagree. He's ahead on the flop in all likelihood, and has no reason to think they're chasing an ace. Might as well bet the probable best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero said that UTG was "rather aggressive," not maniacal. Consequently, once the ace turns Hero almost certainly does not have the best hand, unless you think UTG was spazzing with a hand like 88/KQ.

On the turn, there appears to be approx. eight BB in the pot (minus potential rake). For Hero to take down this pot by sheer aggression, he's going to be risking 2BB to win approx. 11BB (assuming on average that BB puts in one more call). I find if difficult to believe that at least 18% of the time Hero will win this pot, which will necessitate his remaining ahead of BB, who may have up to five outs to improve, and convincing the PF raiser to fold. A pretty nifty parlay indeed, and seemingly much less likely than the 11:2 odds the pot is offering.

[sthief09]

you got lucky. misplayed on every street

[sthief09]

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The 3-bet on the flop says to me the PFR is not just chasing an ace, but has a made hand. I'd put him on a 88 or 99. I love the turn bet, as it makes the PFR think, and ultimately fold. That might have been a fold our hero needed!

[/ QUOTE ]

how often to people fold at low limits? we don't win because we make our opponents fold the best hand. we win because they call down with the 2nd best hand. with no reads his play is terrible

[chesspain]

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you got lucky. misplayed on every street

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You don't like his flop checkraise? Or you think he should've folded to the reraise? Or you didn't want to say "misplayed on nearly every street?" /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[nepenthe]

Whether I have the best hand on the flop or on the turn is not the issue so far as the intended point of this post. I very much realize the fair possibility that I am behind on the flop. The question is whether I induced a better hand to fold thanks to the turned Ace and the presence of BB.

[chesspain]

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The question is whether I induced a better hand to fold thanks to the turned Ace and the presence of BB.

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I'm sure that you did...but in the long run it is a -EV play.

[nepenthe]

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I'm sure that you did...but in the long run it is a -EV play.

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Granted it may very well be moneywise. I do suspect, however, that I will be an octogenarian far before I reach anywhere close to the long run with this precise situation.

[sthief09]

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you got lucky. misplayed on every street

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You don't like his flop checkraise? Or you think he should've folded to the reraise? Or you didn't want to say "misplayed on nearly every street?" /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

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well I think he should've 3-bet preflop and led the flop. I also think he should've bet the flop given that he didn't 3-bet preflop. when UTG raises, he can 3-bet

[Alexthegreat]

I understand the turn bet if you are prepared to fold to a raise...When there is no raise, I doubt the PFR has an ace.....in fact, it's pretty ridiculous to suggest that he does.....if he 3-bet the flop with AK (or AQ) and he spikes on the turn, he's calling down 100% of the time....I think the only hands you push him off of here are QQ or KK....I think the advantage of this play is the fact that you make the villian stop and think about what you could possibly have to check-raise the flop and lead at an overcard turn....It screams of two pair or a set....I think this is what makes the play good....

[sthief09]

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I understand the turn bet if you are prepared to fold to a raise...When there is no raise, I doubt the PFR has an ace.....in fact, it's pretty ridiculous to suggest that he does.....if he 3-bet the flop with AK (or AQ) and he spikes on the turn, he's calling down 100% of the time....I think the only hands you push him off of here are QQ or KK....I think the advantage of this play is the fact that you make the villian stop and think about what you could possibly have to check-raise the flop and lead at an overcard turn....It screams of two pair or a set....I think this is what makes the play good....

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folding to a raise on the turn has nothign to do with this. he's behind. we know he's behind. he's trying to convince his opponent that he has an A or better. the problem is that 99% of players aren't going to fold KK or QQ in that spot. in theory it's fine. in practice it's not.

I understand he tried to use the caller to push the PFR off his hand. it's a nice thought, but it doesn't work enough to justify doing

[sthief09]

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I'm sure that you did...but in the long run it is a -EV play.

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Granted it may very well be moneywise. I do suspect, however, that I will be an octogenarian far before I reach anywhere close to the long run with this precise situation.

[/ QUOTE ]


you're constantly challenging the notion of playing +EV poker. every day you post a new hand that you like, despite knowing that it's -EV. you know what you're doing and you know how to play the game well. it seems that it gives you some sort of thrill when your plays work. that's fine. everyone has their reason for playing the game. If that's your reason, I can't criticize you for that. however, I can criticize you for wasting this forum's space on plays that you know and I know are bad, and then excusing it by clamining that you don't believe in +EV poker

it also pisses me off that you mistitled your post. it should be called "A Play with JACK-JACK OFFSUIT"

[HajiShirazu]

I really doubt pfr folded a better hand here. Nobody folds QQ or KK here online. He probably had KQ or QJs or something.

[nepenthe]

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it also pisses me off that you mistitled your post. it should be called "A Play with JACK-JACK OFFSUIT"

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It was a one-time fling. A one-night stand if you like. Speaking of which, you could use some of it yourself judging by recent thread(s). /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

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you're constantly challenging the notion of playing +EV poker. every day you post a new hand that you like, despite knowing that it's -EV. you know what you're doing and you know how to play the game well. it seems that it gives you some sort of thrill when your plays work. that's fine. everyone has their reason for playing the game. If that's your reason, I can't criticize you for that. however, I can criticize you for wasting this forum's space on plays that you know and I know are bad, and then excusing it by clamining that you don't believe in +EV poker

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to be fair, I sometimes do not know with any degree of certainty whether a given play has positive- or negative- expected value. Regardless of same, sometimes such a play does not work, whether the intent was to fold a better hand or to extract the most or to lose the least or any combination thereof, and I often post those apparent failures as well - which are, I imagine, necessary costs in attempting to discover and pioneer a dynamic, yet constant(ly changing), range of equilibrium amongst aggression, temperance, hand-reading, and opportune bluffing. In the end, results speak and I have a strange, unprovable feeling that holistically speaking, these successes and failures have been +EV.

[SomethingClever]

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A rather aggressive player raises UTG.

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Why is everyone so sure he's behind on the flop and/or turn to this player?

If this read is right, doesn't it nudge the play towards +EV?