TT monoflop decision with 3rd nut flush draw. [Archive]

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bisonbison

12-09-2004, 05:22 PM

Me at a new table.

MP3 is known and decent.
UTG is known and loose-passive.
MP2 is unknown.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $3. Hero posts a blind of $3.
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, MP3 (poster) calls, Hero (poster) 3-bets, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (19.33 SB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 players)
UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, Button folds, UTG calls, MP1 folds, MP2 raises, MP3 folds, Hero calls...

anyone 3-bet this?

Rubeskies

12-09-2004, 05:32 PM

In the hopes of getting a free card on the turn?

MoreWineII

12-09-2004, 05:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
anyone 3-bet this?

[/ QUOTE ]

What does a 3-bet accomplish?

runa

12-09-2004, 06:51 PM

You have position and the pot is big. A free card play is possible and you want to do anything you can to win this pot, why not?

helpmeout

12-09-2004, 07:02 PM

The only thing you can do to win this pot is hope a diamond comes and that a K and J arent out there. No big diamond is folding.

I dont think a pair of Aces is checkraising this big field on that board so I wouldn't 3bet.

Freakin

12-09-2004, 07:10 PM

If you had waited till the BB to come around, then the other players woudl fear you for playing serious poker and would "respect your raises."

I guess a 3-bet makes sense because it somewhat protects your hand against UTG and makes the free card possible. Though given your read and the PF action, UTG is unlikely to fold. What kinds of hands do you think MP2 is raising PF and flop? Something like KQo or KJo, with the K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif?

CinnamonWind

12-09-2004, 07:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you had waited till the BB to come around, then the other players woudl fear you for playing serious poker and would "respect your raises."

I guess a 3-bet makes sense because it somewhat protects your hand against UTG and makes the free card possible. Though given your read and the PF action, UTG is unlikely to fold. What kinds of hands do you think MP2 is raising PF and flop? Something like KQo or KJo, with the K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not a "free" card when you have to put in a BB to get it, particularly when you might get reraised and bet into on the turn. Call and hope for a big diamond. Fold if not.

uw_madtown

12-09-2004, 07:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you had waited till the BB to come around, then the other players woudl fear you for playing serious poker and would "respect your raises."

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think Party 3/6 players are actually putting a read on someone for posting in the CUTOFF versus waiting for the BB, then you're giving Party 3/6 players too much credit.

This would maybe be applicable in a live game, but live players disregard reads most of the time anyway (they'll still give a serious player action when they know they're beat).

As for bison's original post, I 3-bet. If capped, I call and fold to a non-diamond turn card. But I have no idea what to do with a diamond on the turn -- and if my 3-bet is called (instead of getting capped), I'm even more lost. For me, the 3-bet is to let me know whether I'm up against a flopped flush and/or to get a free card.

Rubeskies

12-09-2004, 07:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It's not a "free" card when you have to put in a BB to get it, particularly when you might get reraised and bet into on the turn. Call and hope for a big diamond. Fold if not.

[/ QUOTE ]

The free card play still saves you one small bet over calling the flop and calling the turn. It will cost you 1 big bet on the flop here and 0 on the turn to see the river. Just calling on both streets will cost you 1 small bet on the flop and 1 big bet on the turn for a total cost of 1.5 big bets. 1.5 > 1
Paying 1 bb to see a free turn card is precisely the definition of the free card play.

Your point about possibly getting reraised is a good one. Somebody might also bet into you if a diamond doesn't come on the turn, further hurting the profitability of the free card play.

runa

12-09-2004, 07:49 PM

I put UTG on a draw, and most likely a lone diamond. Since there are only 2 bigger diamonds I think there's a good chance if the flush hits you're already ahead of UTG.

MP2 is more worrisome since there's a good chance he's ahead currently. Since MP2 is unknown a check-raise could be a draw to a higher diamond or a pair trying to thin the field of lone diamonds.

Worse case is AKo with a diamond, but note that if MP2 has paired up there's only a 1/4 chance his other card is a diamond. I think if this were true your flush will probably be good if it hits, and getting a free card to either complete the flush or spike the T, which I am assuming has a decent chance of winning since opponent would have to hold exactly KJ to make these outs dirty.

If your opponent has a high PP, JJ-AA I would like to assume they would have capped the flop, but this is hard to know since this player is unknown. If they hold JJ or KK there's a 50% chance they hold the diamond. If they hold AA or QQ you're in a little more of a pickle but your flush outs are probably good so long as the board doesnt pair up. For 1/2 of these (KK, JJ) your flush outs win half the time and your T outs are good which is about 6.5 outs or so and for the other half (AA, QQ) your flush outs are good which gives you 9. For both of these cases you still want free cards, a flop cap should alert you to the nature of what you might be against, and you have odds to continue.

If you are up against a strong drawing hand like KJo with a lone diamond, you are already ahead. 3-bet.

If you're up against KJs, KTs or something like that and your opponent just flopped the nut flush then I'm sorry. May the poker gods save you with a miracle full house or runner runner 4 of a kind...

So if you are behind AA-JJ (not that likely without PF cap):
(6 combos total) 33% AA-QQ you have flush outs [9]
(12 combos) 67% KK-JJ 50% the time you have flush outs and set outs [11]

If you are behind 2 high cards:
25% AK, etc for pair plus diamond you have only set outs [2]
75% AK, etc for pair with no diamond you have flush outs and set outs [11]

If you are ahead of KJ (you are ahead so 3-bet):
75% KJ no diamond
25% KJ w/diamond

I think the chances he has a high diamond are less than you think and there's a good chance your flush draw is very live and a small chance you're already ahead.

Nonetheless, I think a 3-bet builds up the pot for a likely very live draw with the remote possiblity you are already ahead or get a .5BB discount on a turn card, and your opponent's reaction should define his hand more clearly.

helpmeout

12-09-2004, 07:49 PM

The likelyhood of a freecard is very small, the guy checkraised the flop in a big field?

If that doesnt cry flush I dont know what does.

SomethingClever

12-09-2004, 07:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The likelyhood of a freecard is very small, the guy checkraised the flop in a big field?

If that doesnt cry flush I dont know what does.

[/ QUOTE ]

But the only likely hand he could have raised preflop to have a made flush would be KJ diamond.

I put the original raiser on TPTK, no diamonds.

I just call the raise and hope my flush is good if it hits.

me454555

12-09-2004, 07:53 PM

I'm not sure what I would do on the flop but here are my thoughts on the hand so far.

MP2 probobly had big unsuited cards pf. Since he didn't cap you, I'm going to rule out KK or AA.

If he checked w/the intention of raising you, he's probobly got a likely hand of KQ, QJ, KJ, AK, AJ w/one of those being a diamond. This is a bad situation for you b/c you may be slightly ahead if he's got overcards that haven't hit w/a flushdraw or way behind of a higher pair and no flush draw outs.

QQ is also a possibility but I'd tend to discount it b/c of the Q on the board.

The pot is obviously way too big to fold so I'm leaning toward calling the flop. The turn becomes tricky though b/c he's likely to bet again and you could very well be drawing dead or to 2 outs.

helpmeout

12-09-2004, 08:14 PM

oops yeah I should probably check preflop action before I make dumb statements.

I'd probably say he has AQ to checkraise or yeah TPTK if he thinks soeone will get excited with Kd.

Ralph Wiggum

12-09-2004, 08:14 PM

I don't see the benefit of 3-betting. I'd call and hit a T or /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

helpmeout

12-09-2004, 08:20 PM

One thing I forgot to mention is why bet the flop?

You are clearly behind.

bisonbison

12-09-2004, 08:22 PM

One thing I forgot to mention is why bet the flop?

You are clearly behind.

Cause I have the 3rd nut flush draw in a big field and the possibility to take a free card on the turn?

I thought it was a clear bet.

BottlesOf

12-09-2004, 08:25 PM

Yea, seems clear to me. Also (and I know we love to rag on this reason) the bet can give you some valuble information. I, like the others, don't think a 3-bet is a goo didea.

bisonbison

12-09-2004, 08:33 PM

okay, well, let's move ahead to the river.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $3. Hero posts a blind of $3.
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, MP3 (poster) calls, Hero (poster) 3-bets, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (19.33 SB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 players)
UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, Button folds, UTG calls, MP1 folds, MP2 raises, MP3 folds, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (12.66 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
UTG checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, UTG folds.

River: (14.66 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero raises...

Rubeskies

12-09-2004, 08:35 PM

I like. You can fold to a 3-bet, he won't do it with the 9.

Hmmm, actually I'm not so sure anymore against an unknown.

Joe Tall

12-09-2004, 08:36 PM

You've got 6 opponents, you are behind but have a strong draw, take the free one on the flop.

Peace,
Joe Tall

SomethingClever

12-09-2004, 08:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You can fold to a 3-bet, he won't do it with the 9.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't, but given the way I'm running, I'd call and notice that villain had a royal, and I've been pumping my draw with T /images/graemlins/heart.gif the whole way.

bisonbison

12-09-2004, 10:32 PM

Joe,

You don't think I'll get enough callers to get value for my draw?

I'm also having visions of facing two cold on the turn if the flop gets checked through. I don't know why.

Freakin

12-10-2004, 12:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you had waited till the BB to come around, then the other players woudl fear you for playing serious poker and would "respect your raises."

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think Party 3/6 players are actually putting a read on someone for posting in the CUTOFF versus waiting for the BB, then you're giving Party 3/6 players too much credit.

This would maybe be applicable in a live game, but live players disregard reads most of the time anyway (they'll still give a serious player action when they know they're beat).

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I forgot the /sarcasm switch.

Of course, I only support posting in the CO if you're planning on leaving before your BB. /sarcasm

Freakin

amerksmann22

12-10-2004, 12:57 AM

I like taking the free card on the flop here and if it is too cold to you on the turn then it is a clear fold.

I think you are over-valuing "3-nut flush" here
Plus, when the board paired on the turn you have a clear fold facing a raise.

I also dont like the river raise unless you can fold to a 3-bet which I cant here. I am happy with just calling the river.