Big Laydown

[sthief09]

MP3 is 28/11 preflop and pretty aggressive but not overaggressive. The SB seems to be overaggressive.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, SB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7.50 BB

I should've called the flop bet to draw, but aside from that, how convinced are we that I'm beat?

[Etric]

Looks like MP3 has a flush draw + overcards like KQs or AQs... So I don't think you're beat.

[Festus22]

If I were MP3, I'd raise A-K especially if one or both were a heart like every time.

I kind of stunned by this one actually.

3-bet, call a cap and fold the turn unimproved.
Call, lead the turn if unimproved and fold to a raise.
Call down.

I'd say take your choice but folding to the flop raise doesn't seem prudent.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like MP3 has a flush draw + overcards like KQs or AQs... So I don't think you're beat.

[/ QUOTE ]


He is no more likely to have one of these hands than AA-QQ or TT-99. I think he's less likely actually, since he pretty much has to know that I have a big pair here. besides, AKs or KQs are actually favored over me, so when I'm ahead I'm actually behind.

[J.R.]

how convinced are we that I'm beat?

Not very. 11% pfr is a pretty wide range, so I'm not folding an overpair in an almost 8 BB pot based on the info you have provided after just a flop raise from an open-raiser in position.

[Danenania]

Pretty convinced besides the slight possibility of some suited big cards in hearts and even then you're still a dog. Not sure how many of those hands he would raise/call cap with. You gotta call the flop but I think a turn fold is fine if you don't improve. The only complication is that is that if it's possible for him to have AKh, AQh, or KQh the math could change a lot with a friendly turn card and maybe sway you toward a call down. I'm in no state to do this math right now but if you have free time maybe you can give it a shot.

[Danenania]

All this assumes that your read is solid as in &gt;200 hands in PT. I'm also taking "not aggressive postflop" pretty literally as in he wouldn't raise overcards without an accompanying flush draw. If these conditions aren't met I'd go more with JR.

[sfer]

I'm not folding. I'm checkraising a turn blank.

[Danenania]

"AKs or KQs are actually favored over me, so when I'm ahead I'm actually behind."

Right but if he could have all these hands (AQs too) that could change your equity a whole lot. It's pretty clear that you are usually behind here, but you don't need to be ahead that often overall to call down. Seeing a turn could also disrupt things a lot.

[J.R.]

I think a guy who raises 11% (assuming this is correct) of his hands preflop is opening in MP3 with a lot more hands than 99+, AK, AQ, and KQ. I know we have to consider his actions in light of your cap and his flop raise, but this is more a blind steal spot where aggression is of less significance than otherwise and you indicated he was aggressive to begin with. And you are getting 2.5 - 9.5 to call down, or almost 4-1, and you cna get away from things if a bad card falls.

While image may be overemphasized, the whole cap and fold for one more on this flop will and should raise some eyebrows on this flop. What do they put you on when you fold, and won't "they" takes shots at you for it?

[Danenania]

I don't think he's betting a hand you beat on the turn.

[sfer]

You mean like 99 and AT?

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not folding. I'm checkraising a turn blank.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hear hear! Absolutely -- this raise has semibluff (flush or straight) or AT written all over it. It's a big-ass pot, no way I'm folding this for a SB, and unless it's the K /images/graemlins/heart.gif or somesuch on the turn, I'm probably calling this down at the very least.

[sthief09]

Hand 1: 83.4127 % [ 83.38 00.03 ] { AA-QQ, TT-99, AhKh, KhQh, AhQh }
Hand 2: 16.5873 % [ 16.55 00.03 ] { JsJc }

I should've called the flop. that puts 17 SB in the pot. Assuming he bets the river, I'm getting 10.5-2. 20% of the time a heart comes on the turn and I fold and it costs me 0. 16% of the time it comes on the river and it costs me 1. 20 (2)(.64)+(1)(.16) = 1.44. I don't know if this is right, but I'm risking 1.44 BB to win the 8.5 BB in the pot plus his 2, so 10.5-1.44 = 12%, ignoring implied odds, so it's right to call down.


I don't think preflop raising standards matter much here. Maybe I'm giving too much credit, but I'm pretty sure he's aware that I have a huge hand. Not many people cold-call preflop without the goods. I don't think he's raising a hand like TPTK or an underpair. He's got a big draw (overcards and a flush/straight-flush draw) or a big pair. To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if he wouldn't raise QQ here.


Also, under most circumstances, I'd discount a set because people slowplay sets, but there's no need to slowplay against my range of hands. Again, maybe I'm giving him too much credit.

I also talked to GoT and CDC and both seem to like check-calling the turn and check-folding the river. GoT seemed to sway back toward folding the turn though.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
You mean like 99 and AT?

[/ QUOTE ]


he'd have to be a moron to raise AT on the flop

[sfer]

Not if he has the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

[sthief09]

how much would I be giving up preflop by not capping?

[J.R.]

Probably not too much in terms of preflop equity (you're fair share is 33%, so if you're share is 44%, you give up about 1/3 of a sb), but you lose some postflop advantages like a bigger pot, which will enable you to draw more thinly and capture more of your preflop "showdown" equity, and capping may also make it easier to not pay off as it lends his postflop bets more credibility.

[Danenania]

I'm assuming that a not very aggressive player with those stats isn't raising the flop with AT even if he has a heart. And 99, well, check the flop again.

[sfer]

11 PFR is pretty aggressive.

[Danenania]

You're right, I did misread his read on this guy. I thought he said not aggressive, but he said "pretty aggressive, not overaggressive". So everyone should reinterpret all my posts in this thread based on this info /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

Regardless, the point is that when you go for a turn c/r, you're banking on him having exactly AT, specifically with the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif, a hand which he isn't even guaranteed to raise the flop with. This opposed to a host of other hands that have you crushed. Doesn't sound like a good plan to me.

[sfer]

Yeah, I talked to Josha about it and I agree. But I'm not folding unless the board gets pretty f'ugly.

[Joe Tall]

WTF? You HAVE to call this flop. What you do on the turn is up to your opponent but folding this is suicide. AT, heart draw, AK, QJ, all may raise this flop. Puke in my mouth.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
WTF? You HAVE to call this flop. What you do on the turn is up to your opponent but folding this is suicide. AT, heart draw, AK, QJ, all may raise this flop. Puke in my mouth.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[/ QUOTE ]


you're going to get to puke in your mouth 1000 times soon /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[J.R.]

What do you think of the preflop cap decision, and do you think its check-fold the turn or check-fold the river, or call down absent a scary card? I think you like calling but not for a scary card, but I'm not sure. If its not too much, how are you finding the 10-20 full games to be, maybe in comparison to your experiences in the 5-10 full?

[James282]

This fold makes me want to kill myself. I am a roughly 11% PFR, and although I'd fold a couple of these hands for 2 bets back to me, my range of hands in his situation go down to QJ, 77, AT and a large number of hands. If the table was really tight and some nit was in the BB(cough) I might raise T9s. Not to mention your backdoor straight outs and your 2 outs to what will virtually always be the best hand, you have to see a showdown here. This is one of those counterintuitive plays, sthief. You "know" you're beat but you sure as [censored] don't know with the 80% accuracy you need to make this fold correct. You can say "he must be a moron to raise AT here" all you want, but I can promise you that people will do it. Remember sthief, you aren't playing against world class experts. You are playing against people who struggle with mediocrity in the 5/10 at party. Don't try to think "what would I do if I were MP3 in this situation" because that analysis is worthless. These players aren't playing on the same level as you are. You need to ignore that little itch that makes you want to read hands based on how you would play if you were your opponent.
-James

[Joe Tall]

This fold makes me want to kill myself.

James, we really have to meet because as soon as I got to the fold, my sight went blurry, my heart rate up and I wanted to choke the little bastard.

Yes, Josh, you should be flattered, I do care.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[James282]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think of the preflop cap decision, and do you think its check-fold the turn or check-fold the river, or call down absent a scary card? I think you like calling but not for a scary card, but I'm not sure. If its not too much, how are you finding the 10-20 full games to be, maybe in comparison to your experiences in the 5-10 full?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey J.R., the preflop cap should be obvious given mp3's raising requirements and the fact that the sb has been described as "overaggressive."
-James

[J.R.]

I agree the the preflop cap is automatic, as is appraent form my first 2 posts in this thread. I was referring to his theoretical question regarding what he would be giving up (to the extent it can be quantified) if he chose not to cap.

[River2Pair]

[ QUOTE ]
Not many people cold-call preflop without the goods.

[/ QUOTE ]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. HA.
This was online, right?

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree the the preflop cap is automatic, as is appraent form my first 2 posts in this thread. I was referring to his theoretical question regarding what he would be giving up (to the extent it can be quantified) if he chose not to cap.

[/ QUOTE ]


just to clarify, I asked the question originally because I was thinking there were some advantages to just calling, like seeing if MP3 would cap, but his range is so wide, that he's not going cap very often, and when he does, it could be with hands like TT or AQs. as far as equity goes, I think I win here around 50% of the time

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not many people cold-call preflop without the goods.

[/ QUOTE ]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. HA.
This was online, right?

[/ QUOTE ]


cold-cap*

[me454555]

1) I really like your pf play, Mp3 could be stealing and the sb 3bet may have been made w/a weaker hand. If you can isolate sb w/a weaker hand or 2 overcards, the extra pot equity makes this a great situation for you.

2) As you said, calling the flop was probobly the right play.

At 10/20, do you think you can knock him off a hand if the flush draw comes? Assuming he's got a big pair w/out a heart, maybe you can fold him by representing the flush. I don't play 10/20 often so don't know if it would work but even if it fails, you're hand still has decent sd potential and the pot is big enough that you can try to get lucky.

[sthief09]

no, I'm the only weak tight idiot who folds big pairs. oh, me and Rico Suave

[J.R.]

There is also some advantage to capping if MP will fold a hand like KQo or another hand with an overcard, like ATs.

[James282]

[ QUOTE ]
There is also some advantage to capping if MP will fold a hand like KQo or another hand with an overcard, like ATs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I would definitely fold those hands if someone capped out of the BB.
-James

[River2Pair]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not many people cold-call preflop without the goods.

[/ QUOTE ]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. HA.
This was online, right?

[/ QUOTE ]


cold-cap*

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh okay, I gotcha. And I agree. I was skimming the thread, and was looking at that sentence in isolation. My bad.

If you're faced with two cold in BB and take it up to four bets, don't you think you ought to at least see the turn with with you overpair? I don't know. I always feel lost in this situation, and am usually shown kings. Good hand for discussion.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There is also some advantage to capping if MP will fold a hand like KQo or another hand with an overcard, like ATs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I would definitely fold those hands if someone capped out of the BB.
-James

[/ QUOTE ]


at the time, that was the main reason I capped. the more I think about it, the more I realize that I don't remember anyone ever making that kind of fold preflop other than me and people I know