How do you play the nuts here.

[kipin]

Let me start out by introducing myself a bit. I am a fairly long time 2+2 forum reader, not a frequent poster, and PLo is one of my favorite games to play. I would consider myself a self-taught PLo player, that has had decent success, and is in general much better then the average PLo player you will find online.

Anyway on to the hand in question.

The game is $50 PLo on Party. Hero has the deepest stack at the table (Just over $200).

Hero is dealt A /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif from the BB.

Two new players to the table post a BB of $1. Flop is 6 way in an unraised pot. ($5.70)

Flop comes 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Hero bets pot ($5.70). Two folds, raise from MP to $14.10, reraise from the button to $53.70 (All-in).

Action comes back to hero, who has MP covered, but MP has a larger stack then average. (Around 2x the buyin) What is your play here?

Of the three options I have (fold, call, raise) I don't particularily like any of them.

Comments on this hand please.

kipin

[nate1729]

I think calling is out of the question, as hearts, kings, jacks, nines, and board pairs are all scare cards, and you're out of position. Folding is even more out of the question, because your hand is too good (and you're playing against Party $50 PLO players anyway); remember you have two of the jacks, so you're slightly less likely to be chopping. So raise.

[Cleveland Guy]

Kings are good cards, just not the K /images/graemlins/heart.gif

King gives him a better straight

[TimoneX]

I believe I'd toss that hand and wait for a better spot. Yeah I know tossing the nut str8 on the flop sux, but your draws to better hands are extremely limited here. A K will give you a higher nut str8, but that's only 4 outs and your pair has been overcarded. You could well be up against a heart draw w/ 9 outs and a set of Qs with 12 outs. Additionally you have no low draw should it show up at the back door. I'm a conservative player, but I think the odds favor a bad beat for you here...I'd toss it.

[kipin]

This is a high game only, low outs do not need to be considered.

[kipin]

Nate, in the little bit of time I thought about this hand while actually involved in the pot I used your line of thinking (Don't fold or call, but raise). But in retrospect I believe it may not have been the best option.

Considering the amount of money I have invested in the pot ($7), and the amount of money I will need to put into the pot to stay in this hand (Atleast another $50), looking back I now believe fold was the best option. I think with the reraise I have to put him on atleast J9 (for the split) and at worst, the made hand, plus a redraw to either a full house or a flush.

The original raiser IMO has to have somewhere between a flush draw and the same straight. (Set is probably most likely in this situation since his raise seems to be for information and not for value (He did not put in the max raise).

If anyone is interested in the actual results of the hand I will paste them in white after the comments on the hand have stopped rolling in.

[TimoneX]

Ah, I missed that since I only play O8. My opinion remains the same however, I'd fold. There are simply too many cards to beat you and too few that improve your hand.

[FeelGoodAboutHood]

Someone's probably freerolling on you and the other probably has a set here, so looking at it objectively, I think a fold is in order. But if I was playing in this game, at these stakes, I'd tell myself that one had a set, one a flush draw and probably push. The better the competition gets though, the better a fold looks. Interesting hand, like to know how it turns out.

[kipin]

For any interested in the results of the hand, I have posted it on pokerhand.org.

http://www.pokerhand.org/index.php?page=view&hand=21163

I think my raise was bad, but not the worst play I could have made with this hand. In the future I think folding the flop is a smarter, and higher EV long term play, this would be especially true in a deeper stacked game.

[DyessMan89]

Didnt look at your results, but folding is your best option here IMO. You have no outs to improve you're hand really, while I would assume the other 2 players have tons of them. Im pretty sure someone is free-rolling you, and you'll end up at best with half the pot, most likley losing it to a flush draw.

[Cornell Fiji]

I have not yet looked at results but I assume a heart fell or the board paired and you lost... this is irrelevant.

I think that you have to push here.
It is much harder for one of your opponants to have the nut straight and be freerolling because of your paired jacks with your 9. If I really thought someone was freerolling I would lay down here but would never make that assumption or laydown online.

So you have $6.70 invested in a pot and it is $53 to call. If you lose the main pot here then you can always win the sidepot with MP2 (hopefully he has the trips that dont improve and you make a slight win for the hand -- what is his stack?)

Running the 3 hands (flush draw, top set, your hand) on 2 dimes you have more than 33% equity to win this hand (not even mentioning the fact that you can win the sidepot with MP2, plus you have extra money ($16) in there before the call.

(I am assuming that the set of queens has one heart in his hand.)

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Jc 9c Jd 236 35.44 430 64.56 0 0.00 0.354
3c 4d Ah 2h 166 24.92 500 75.08 0 0.00 0.249
Qs Qd 3d 4h 264 39.64 402 60.36 0 0.00 0.396


Unless you are risk adverse you should definitely call here. Skalansky would call... thats for sure.

-Steve

[bengali]

"Running the 3 hands (flush draw, top set, your hand) on 2 dimes you have more than 33% equity to win this hand (not even mentioning the fact that you can win the sidepot with MP2, plus you have extra money ($16) in there before the call."

since our hero probably is tied for the nuts you cant really assume that one of the hands are ladies and the other the flush draw...

[dogsballs]

[ QUOTE ]
Unless you are risk adverse you should definitely call here. Skalansky would call... thats for sure.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about Skalansky, but I bet Bubba Cioffalone would fold this...and he plays PLO goot. Actually, I doubt Skalansky would play on either.

This is clearly a good time to get out, cos you're likely tied and just praying one of many scare cards don't come so you can split the pot. Fuggedabadit.

[Cornell Fiji]

Is it that safe to assume that someone holds J9 here when there are only 2 ways left that they can make it?

You all seem to be assuming that one of the players in this hand definitely has the J9 and is most likely freerolling. I have checked the results but don't want to be results oriented and I wonder how you all can make that exact assumption when there are so many other (more likely) holdings that they would be making this bet with

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it that safe to assume that someone holds J9 here when there are only 2 ways left that they can make it?

You all seem to be assuming that one of the players in this hand definitely has the J9 and is most likely freerolling. I have checked the results but don't want to be results oriented and I wonder how you all can make that exact assumption when there are so many other (more likely) holdings that they would be making this bet with

[/ QUOTE ]

When the pot is raised the size of the pot and then re-raised the size of the pot again don't you give someone credit for at least having the nuts or a draw that's more than 50% favorite on such a coordinated board?

[dogsballs]

Even if you are in the lead on teh flop, you almost certainly won't have the nuts at the river. These guys like their hands and you want to dodge all the turn and river cards that will kill you.

The vulnerable nuts on the flop with no redraws in PLO when you're not HU is shaky to say the least. When 2 others like their hands a lot you'll be hard pressed to be making money by shoving chips in.

[Cleveland Guy]

I think the assumptions for what the others are holding are way off. I don't see many people calling that big a bet with nake trips, or a nake nut flush draw. I have to think they have trips +Flush Draw, or straight + flush Draw, or Trips + Straight draw here.