Save bets or spray chips?

[MaxPower]

The trend seems to be posting 15/30 hands on Small Stakes, so I'm going along with it.

I had just sat down at this table and had basically no reads on these players. They were both in steal positions, so I asummed they did not need really strong hands to raise or reraise pre-flop.

Just as this hand started I got a phone call from my friend and was talking with him during the hand. That might account for my failure to cap the flop.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero caps</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, CO calls.

Turn: (11 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>

Where do I go from here?

[Joe Tall]

The trend seems to be posting 15/30 hands on Small Stakes, so I'm going along with it.

Have you seen the quality of the posts up there?

Where do I go from here?

I still c/r, their range of hands is too wide not to think you are ahead.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Tosh]

I would check call that card.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
The trend seems to be posting 15/30 hands on Small Stakes, so I'm going along with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

ahh that makes me so happy. I agree with JT (I think that's what he was getting at) that the 15/30 posts are really bumping up the quality of posts a notch or two. I kind of feel bad that I have a 100 post albatross sitting right in the middle of the page. scrub was right

oops, I deleted my first response because I missed the "5 folds" thing. anyway, I'm pretty sure you're behind, but a 7 will usually make your hand best by the river, and maybe a J, Q, or K. on the flop, I think CO has top pair, which means KQ, AQ, maybe QJ-Qx. AJ, KK, or a set are possible too, but I'd expect a slowplay with a set. the button's range is similar but more narrow. AQ, a set (though again, I'd expect a slowplay), or QJs seem probable. I actually like your decision to just call because you can see if the CO wants to cap. when he doesn't it looks a lot like top pair or AJ.

the turn isn't as bad as I'd think. we're pretty sure you have the CO beat, but we think you're behind the button. I'd bet at it. The CO will call, or possibly raise if he has QT, which should subsidize the cost of the button's likely raise. even if he has you beat, you've got at least 3 7's and 2 A's most of the time, which is pretty like. if you get popped on the turn, I'd think about making a "big" laydown on the river


I know it's not your fault you have none but reads are critical in this spot. if the CO has any bit of passivity in him, I'd feel somewhat confident that he has KK. if he's LAGgy, I'd be putting him on a Q or AJ.


Tosh, why check-call? Joe, why check-raise? Both are legitimate options in my mind but I'm wondering why you think they're best. I guess the question is, "how often are we ahead?" and "how important is it to shut out the CO?"


this is gonna be a good thread. I can feel it

[Joe Tall]

how often are we ahead?"

The flop is draw heavy and there are many hands that would have such preflop/flop action. JT, AQ, As9s, even AK and I think the times we are ahead are off set by the times the CO will call 2-cold here.

I have to think about this more. Either way, I check this turn, not bet. (and not capping the flop stinks)

Peace,
Joe Tall

[sthief09]

well if you're putting the button on a draw, then checking becomes less correct, but I don't think it's all that likely. I think we have the CO drawing thin. If we check-raise, we're getting called by a worst, or sometimes better hand, and getting 3-bet by a better hand. if we bet, I think we're going to get raised most of the time, but by betting, we are forcing CO to pay 2 bets, one at a time, getting insufficient odds, and I think there's also a reasonable chance that we don't even get raised. one thing I do like about the check-raise is that it freezes the action. I don't think any hand worse than top 2 will be betting or raising for the rest of the hand. also, if we check-raise the turn and get 3-bet, we check-fold the river unimproved. if we bet and get raised, we'll probably call a river bet unimproved given the pot size, so it's 3 bets either way.

I really think check-calling is too weak here, and, as funny as it sounds, I'm the most weak-tight regular here, so check-calling must be REALLY weak /images/graemlins/smile.gif

do we agree that CO probably isn't raising and is probably drawing to 2-5 outs? I wanna start to hammer down some things here so we can better estimate the best course of action.

[Festus22]

Not capping the flop makes this tougher. If you had capped and led the turn and THEN got raised, the liklihood you're behind goes up. Since you just called and were to lead out on the turn, it looks like a fishy stop-n-go or the king improved you. Now if you're raised, it could be you're beat or the raiser has A-Q and doesn't believe you. In either scenario, if you get raised on the turn it's likely you're behind but more so if you had capped the flop.

So I guess with all that said and how the hand has played so far, I'd bet the turn, call a single raise but fold if it came back 3-bet.

If not raised, lead the river. If raised, check/call the river and hope to see A-K.

[MaxPower]

Bumping from days ago.

on the turn, I checked, the CO bet, BB called and I called.

The river was a 7. I checked the CO bet, the BB folded, I called. The CO showed AQ.

There seems to be little agreement here on what the best play is.

[Joe Tall]

There seems to be little agreement here on what the best play is.

That's because they are all chicken $hit. This is a great hand to post and the tough ones, they avoid. Well done, Max.

Here's the thing, I check the turn. If I can safely fold to a 3-bet, I c/r. If not, call down as you did.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
That's because they are all chicken $hit. This is a great hand to post and the tough ones, they avoid.

[/ QUOTE ]



yeah I was pretty disappointed that this hand got no responses... I still think check-calling is way too weak, and I don't think it's fair to completely dismiss a stop n go

[J.R.]

If I can safely fold to a 3-bet, I c/r.

You can't ever do that with gutshot outs (even if your opponent shows you a T, the pot will be huge enough to draw to 3, or perhaps even 2 outs).

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
If I can safely fold to a 3-bet, I c/r.

You can't ever do that with gutshot outs (even if your opponent shows you a AT, the pot will be huge enough to draw to 3, or perhaps even 2 outs).

[/ QUOTE ]


what do you think then? I still stand by my "check-calling is too weak" comments. that would leave betting and calling a raise, and calling the river. is forcing the other guy to call 2 bets important enough for betting to be wrong? can we afford to check and let the button check it through?

[Joe Tall]

You can't ever do that with gutshot outs (even if your opponent shows you a AT, the pot will be huge enough to draw to 3, or perhaps even 2 outs).

WAIT WAIT!! It's friday night and I've had a few Newcastles, didn't re-read the hand, just knew the K came off. I retrack my statement, yes call w/gutshot outs.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[sfer]

I think you're right and you stop n' go.

[J.R.]

I'd cap the flop and bet the turn, callinga turn raise. I don't think the stop and go line accomplishes much here, but then again I rarely think it accomplishes much unless the field is pretty big.

[Joe Tall]

I'd cap the flop and bet the turn, callinga turn

Yeah, not capping the flop blows and mucks this hand up on the turn when the K comes off.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[sfer]

I agree, but given that we're at the turn how Max played don't you think betting is best?

[bernie]

I agree with going for the turn c/r. Not capping the flop can actually help induce the bet on the turn. However, with the wonderful 'no reads' light on, i don't see how you can let this go at any point against only 2 opponents. To showdown i go.

b

[BottlesOf]

[ QUOTE ]
I retrack my statement

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh boy...it's gonna be a long weekend. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[J.R.]

With respect to not capping the flop to see what the guy in the middle does, I'll throw out the recent Paluka theme of not being able to reliably read into your oppponents betting actions when you have chosen to under-represent your hand. If the flop gets capped, you aren't gonna fold absent improvement, are you? Cap it yourself and bet the turn, there's too much potential posturing on this flop given the action so far to reliably get a read on the guy in the middle if you undeplay your aces here, IMO.

[J.R.]

yes

[bernie]

Since i'd be in 'clocking the players' mode after the flop and preflop action, im not worried about missing bets or anything as much. It's only 3-way. You don't know the players so you don't really know what their range is that they'd play this way. It's only 1 hand. Meaning, once you've played a few rounds with them, THEN you can worry more about maximizing as you will know much more about their play. Otherwise, you're essentially playing in the blinders on with them. I like the c/r suggestion. But given the knowledge of the players, for this hand, i don't mind the check call line either. Actually, i dont mind seeing the showdown cheaply here. If the turn gets checked, then you're betting the river.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's the thing, I check the turn. If I can safely fold to a 3-bet, I c/r. If not, call down as you did

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think i could fold rockets/overpair to unknown players. Therefore, i want to see what they have. Cheaply.

b

[bernie]

I think you played it fine. Now, given this info on the players, you can alter how you'd play it if it came up again.

b

[me454555]

I really like checking this turn for information. If its bet and raised, a c/r isn't going to do any good and you probobly don't have the hand. When its bet and called, I think check raising is the right play b/c you have T outs, probobly some 7 outs and you might even have an A out.

All in all I give you 6 outs when you're behind with a good chance you're ahead still ahead. If he 3 bets you theres no reason to pay off on the river if you don't improve so you're loosing 1 bet when you're behind and don't hit but gaining 2 when you're ahead or behind and hit on the river.

[J.R.]

That's true but I don't see you getting raised by a worse hand on the turn (especially if you cap the flop), so you don't need to take it to 3 bets on the turn to find out where you are at, if its bet then raised do you call or fold on a non A, K or T turn- I don't want to have to deal with that. there's also the small risk its checked thru- i could see AK 3-betting the flop.

When its bet and called, I think check raising is the right play b/c you have T outs, probobly some 7 outs and you might even have an A out

maybe is missing the point but there's no reason to check-raise if your hand isn't best, and getting 3-bet blows even if you have T and maybe these outs.

[MaxPower]

[ QUOTE ]
With respect to not capping the flop to see what the guy in the middle does, I'll throw out the recent Paluka theme of not being able to reliably read into your oppponents betting actions when you have chosen to under-represent your hand. If the flop gets capped, you aren't gonna fold absent improvement, are you? Cap it yourself and bet the turn, there's too much potential posturing on this flop given the action so far to reliably get a read on the guy in the middle if you undeplay your aces here, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

J.R.,

From now on can I skip 2+2 and send my hands directly to you?

I think you are right. Cap the flop, bet the turn. I did use this exact line on another recent hand, but I had a very good read on both players on that one.

I also think it is useless to just call to see what the CO does. It doesn't really help me define his hand.

Thanks.

[MaxPower]

[ QUOTE ]
That's because they are all chicken $hit. This is a great hand to post and the tough ones, they avoid.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is so true Joe.

Have another Newcastle.

[Tosh]

Well Max you know to cap the flop, so I assumed that was just a retarded moment.

I still feel a check call on the turn GIVEN you didn't cap the flop.

[me454555]

I was just trying to point out that if its bet and called, theres a very good chance you might still be ahead. Combine that with the draw possibilities and it might be a good decision to try to get more money into the pot w/a checkraise.

[MaxPower]

[ QUOTE ]
Well Max you know to cap the flop, so I assumed that was just a retarded moment.

I still feel a check call on the turn GIVEN you didn't cap the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

My problem with checking is that it will often be two bets cold to me and I will have to call. If I am going to put two bets in the pot, I think it is better to bet and call a raise.

That didn't happen this time, but I think its very likely.

[Tosh]

Given the action and hand ranges how much pot equity do you give us? I think we're behind quite often but I still want to see river and showdown.

[MaxPower]

30-40%

TEAM TOSH RULES