Please confirm my mistake so I don't make it again

[beachbum]

Button and SB are fishy.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds.

Maybe a loose-raise on this table, but I don't hate it.


Flop: (11 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

I've got implied odds to draw to my 2 outer.


Turn: (8 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Button folds, SB calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

I really like my play here. Hit my 2 outer and made people me for it.


River: (16 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP3 folds, <font color="CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Someone please, PLEASE tell me NOT TO RAISE. UTG+1 and MP3 might even overcall if I don't raise.


Final Pot: 22 BB

[Trix]

Bet the flop.

"I've got implied odds to draw to my 2 outer"
eh ? at 14:1, Since sometimes you will hit and someone else will improve on the river, you will need to make more than 8SBs. I´d fold if I knew I was behind.

Calling or raising are both fine on the river, depending on:
1) how likely they are to coldcall and
2) how likely it is that SB makes this bet with a better hand, which would be a really bad play as he has a perfect CR oppertunity.
3) how likely SB is to fold for one more bet.

[beachbum]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Bet/fold or bet/call to a raise? I didn't feel I'd have any chance at winning this hand without improving.


[ QUOTE ]
"I've got implied odds to draw to my 2 outer"
eh ? at 14:1, Since sometimes you will hit and someone else will improve on the river, you will need to make more than 8SBs.

[/ QUOTE ]

By this reasoning, you're basically saying to let a PP go on the flop for a small bet if I don't hit trips or something like a gutshot. I fold a missed PP ~95% of the time or more, but it seemed the pot was big enough here. What do I need here, 20:1? A similar scenario would play out if I called 55 OTB to a preflop raiser and 3 cold-callers.

[Trix]

"By this reasoning, you're basically saying to let a PP go on the flop for a small bet if I don't hit trips or something like a gutshot. I fold a missed PP ~95% of the time or more, but it seemed the pot was big enough here. What do I need here, 20:1? A similar scenario would play out if I called 55 OTB to a preflop raiser and 3 cold-callers."

If he shows you a Queen you can fold, but you are ahead on this flop much more often than you think, which is why you have to bet it.

Whether you can call or not depending on implied odds, depends on alot of things, count the pot and try to figure out what will happen on the turn and river if you hit, see if it makes the odds good enough. Discount redraws and chance of getting raised behind if you arent closing the action.

"I didn't feel I'd have any chance at winning this hand without improving."

Why not ? Why must someone have a Queen here ?
You need to get beyond weak-tight thinking like that when the pot is big. Your primary goal is to protect your hand from overcards when you are ahead. This is worth more than saving a SB when behind. SSH talks alot about this.

[pfkaok]

Bet the flop b/c its a big pot, your hand might be good, and you want overcards to fold. with 4 other players you can't be sure that anyone has the Q... you'll get called by worse hands, and if you get raised on the flop, well then you'll have a huge pot, so you can take one off if you only have to pay 1 small bet.

[Kirg]

nm, I need to learn how to read

[27offsooot]

c-r the flop to an LP bet. Nobody's folding for one bet. Leading won't accomplish much. if it checks through, lead with a non-threatening card. If it's bet from EP with a bunch of callers, u probably do have odds to see the turn, so call. IMO, it depends on who bets, who calls to decide whether to call/raise/fold the flop. But i think checking is optimal to see how others act. Raising the river is fine b/c the other two might have been on draws and folded the river regardless. TP would probably still call down.

[GrunchCan]

Your primary goal is to protect your hand from overcards when you are ahead.

With 11 SB in the pot when the flop comes, isn't the pot too big for a flop bet by Hero to protect anything? Everyone would be right to call.

[7ontheline]

I agree with 27; no way are overcards folding here - a lot of people cold-called an UTG raise, you think they're folding their crappy AJo? Check-raising is the only way to get rid of anybody, so I wouldn't bet out. Also, with so many players in I find it hard to imagine that someone didn't have a queen or better PP. At that point any card other than a 9 is bad for you.

[beachbum]

[ QUOTE ]
If he shows you a Queen you can fold, but you are ahead on this flop much more often than you think, which is why you have to bet it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does being ahead on the flop really mean I have to bet it? I might have the best hand now, but does that mean I should "invest" a bet here when this hand is going to win maybe 25% of the time with 5 players at this point. Then if I'm raised it costs me one more bet. At this point, 2 pair, any Queen, gutshots and OESD's are calling or raising my flop bet. Only people a flop bet properly eliminates are those who need runner-runner and they'll fold no matter who bets.

Here's a theoretical example of possible holdings:

Holdem Hi: 741 enumerated boards containing Qs 5s 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9c 9d 199 26.86 542 73.14 0 0.00 0.269
8h 7h 170 22.94 571 77.06 0 0.00 0.229
Ts Ac 173 23.35 568 76.65 0 0.00 0.233
Jd Kh 139 18.76 602 81.24 0 0.00 0.188
2c 2h 60 8.10 681 91.90 0 0.00 0.081

Change one of these holding to having a queen and now my hand is &lt; 10%.

[ QUOTE ]
Why not ? Why must someone have a Queen here ?
You need to get beyond weak-tight thinking like that when the pot is big. Your primary goal is to protect your hand from overcards when you are ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about CR'ing the flop to possibly eliminate gutshots and overcards?


Now take this exact scenario and replace my 99 with AK. Do I bet AK into 4 others? I lean toward check-calling with AK.

[beachbum]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling or raising are both fine on the river, depending on:
1) how likely they are to coldcall and
2) how likely it is that SB makes this bet with a better hand, which would be a really bad play as he has a perfect CR oppertunity.
3) how likely SB is to fold for one more bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) Very little chance UTG+1 and MP3 coldcall 2 BB's, especially since I CR'd the turn.

2) SB was reeeeally bad. My read of him is he'd only bet this hand if he had me beat.

3) Not likely at all.

I believe this is my biggest mistake of the hand. It cost me 2 BB. And even if I did have SB beat, raising him probably costs me 1 BB (assuming the 2 players behind me would have overcalled) if the SB just calls my raise.

[Altaslim]

I would c/r the flop because it does a much better job protecting my hand than betting out. From there your turn and river options might have been a whole lot different/easier.

[27offsooot]

As I stated before, I would c-r an LP bet, but here, you're not protecting anything with a raise of an EP bettor with a couple of callers (they're calling your raise, unless it's two back to them, depending on how aggro the initial bettor is...if it is three bet, you're very likely behind, plus a few people are knocked out, and u lose some of those delicious implied odds). It would be perceived as a value c-r if they're paying attn, which could be good for deception, but not really. Call the EP flop bet with implied odds &gt;20:1, which i think they are with so many in the hand.

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
c-r the flop to an LP bet

[/ QUOTE ]

Why CR here?? there's a good chance it'll check through, as most people won't bet the flop after you raised, b/c they'd think you might be wanting to CR... people might very well fold if they have 2 overcards to YOU, not 2 overcards to the Q. You'd like for anybody with Jx, Kx or 10x to fold. Maybe the tighter players would even fold Ax. Anyways, its very likely that a flop bet would increase your chances here.

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's a theoretical example of possible holdings:

Holdem Hi: 741 enumerated boards containing Qs 5s 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9c 9d 199 26.86 542 73.14 0 0.00 0.269
8h 7h 170 22.94 571 77.06 0 0.00 0.229
Ts Ac 173 23.35 568 76.65 0 0.00 0.233
Jd Kh 139 18.76 602 81.24 0 0.00 0.188
2c 2h 60 8.10 681 91.90 0 0.00 0.081

Change one of these holding to having a queen and now my hand is &lt; 10%.


[/ QUOTE ]

These number don't mean too much, as thats just what'll happen if the hand is played out with everyone calling the whole way... if you get only 1 or 2 players who have overcards to your 9's you increase you equity quite a bit. Trying to CR you risk giving free cards to all people with overcards, and if you are able to get a CR the chances that the player betting having a Q is quite high, so at that point a raise probably wouldn't be correct.

People will probably call with just Ax, or with middle or bottom pair... and of course if they have a Q they'll call or raise, but just them calling isn't enough reason to assume that they must have a Q.

[beachbum]

[ QUOTE ]
Why CR here?? there's a good chance it'll check through

[/ QUOTE ]

Not usually. More often than not one of these 4 other players will bet. And if it does check through, doesn't this tell me I most likely have the best hand? Then I'll bet any non Ace or King on the turn. Also checking through on the flop and me betting the turn forces my opponents to only get 6.5:1 now.

[beachbum]

[ QUOTE ]


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here's a theoretical example of possible holdings:

Holdem Hi: 741 enumerated boards containing Qs 5s 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9c 9d 199 26.86 542 73.14 0 0.00 0.269
8h 7h 170 22.94 571 77.06 0 0.00 0.229
Ts Ac 173 23.35 568 76.65 0 0.00 0.233
Jd Kh 139 18.76 602 81.24 0 0.00 0.188
2c 2h 60 8.10 681 91.90 0 0.00 0.081

Change one of these holding to having a queen and now my hand is &lt; 10%.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



These number don't mean too much, as thats just what'll happen if the hand is played out with everyone calling the whole way... if you get only 1 or 2 players who have overcards to your 9's you increase you equity quite a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I felt betting out would knock out 2 or 3 other opponents, I would have. With these donkeys, I felt maybe only one would fold.

[belloc]

Those percentages show that you have a pot equity advantage. Your numbers (assuming they're right) give you have a 26% chance of winning, which is more than your fair share of 20% (which comes from being one of five players in the pot). Bet the flop. You have the advantage (presuming there's no queen out there, as your analysis does).

As others have said, betting the flop might help to find that queen (or a flopped set or two pair) early enough to save you bets on the expensive streets if your nine doesn't fall.

(Note: a successful C/R on the flop would be even better, but that play is risky here unless you have some particular reason for suspecting aggression from one or more players. Since there are no preflop raises to suggest a sure flop bet, you must have a read on someone [oversimple example: they always bet the flop no matter what falls] to be certain that your C/R won't just give free cards.)

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
Not usually. More often than not one of these 4 other players will bet. And if it does check through, doesn't this tell me I most likely have the best hand? Then I'll bet any non Ace or King on the turn. Also checking through on the flop and me betting the turn forces my opponents to only get 6.5:1 now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless there is a very aggressive opponent in LP who will bet any pair, or A high, then likely nobody will bet here without TP.

Yes, if it checks thru, then you likely have the best hand, and if an A comes on the turn you're probably not good anymore... what if a 10, J, or K comes on the turn though, then you'll wish you had bet on the flop, b/c with that many players you're chances of being good have gone down quite a bit. Even if you only get 1 or 2 people to fold their 10, J or K's, you'll improve your share to more than make up for the cost of 1 SB.

[sfbruin]

The use of a check-raise is to protect the best hand at that point but that is vulnerable to overcards. You don't have top pair so you can't be too sure that you have the best hand. In other words, your check-raise is just making money for whoever holds the queen. You should be the flop as you may have the best hand right now, plus you may find out if someone's holding a queen if there is a raise. If you don't bet, anyone else who bets out does not necessarily have the queen, though you are likely to think that and play scared. Bet the flop, take control of the hand.

[me454555]

Just call the river, you've got 2 people to overcall with and making them call 2 bets cold mean they are tossing unless they beat a set.

[beachbum]

So if I bet the flop and get 3 callers, do I bet the turn if a rag falls? How about if an Ace or King hits? Do I bet/fold to a turn raise?

[kendal14]

The pot is already big enough that there is a big difference to calling one bet and two. I think the CR is the right move here. It causes people to make people make a decision and gives you a chance to take advantage of other players mistakes a la SSH. And with the pot this big, unless everyone is VERY passive fish I do not see this getting check through.

[MrFeelNothin]

Why do you not see this getting checked through? What hands do you think a LP could have hit a piece of this ragged flop with other than top pair? I dont think any hand that cold-called pf is going to be opposed to you giving them a free look at the turn. bet the flop, get those 10, J and Ks out.

[kendal14]

Unfortunately without any reads on potential LAG's that could make the bet for you it is harder not to bet and attempt the c/r. To clarify I do not think betting out is wrong or bad, but I think C/R is more effective in driving anyone out of the 11 bet pot.

But your question also makes sense. The flop is very ragged, but at a Party 2/4 I would not be suprised by A5s,A4s cold callers that bet out.

But, I just feel the C/R is better; but am certainly not an authority and would love to hear some more analysis.

EDIT - I also agree with 27 that you c/R a LP bettor and call a EP better with a couple of callers. I would then lead out on the turn when non-threatening card comes and fold to a raise by the same EP flop bettor (especially if any others cold call his turn bet).

[Sarge85]

The mistake is on the flop.

Either Bet out, or Check raise - Check Calling is icky.

I prefer CR here.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]

Unless there is a very aggressive opponent in LP who will bet any pair, or A high, then likely nobody will bet here without TP.

Yes, if it checks thru, then you likely have the best hand, and if an A comes on the turn you're probably not good anymore... what if a 10, J, or K comes on the turn though, then you'll wish you had bet on the flop, b/c with that many players you're chances of being good have gone down quite a bit. Even if you only get 1 or 2 people to fold their 10, J or K's, you'll improve your share to more than make up for the cost of 1 SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude,

In both of your posts, you gave excellent reasons for CR'ing this flop - yet you keep saying it's the wrong move WHY?.....

1. Our hand might be good.
2. The pot is big so we need to protect our hand
3. Our hand is vulnerable to alot of overcalls, so you need to charge them as much as you can to draw out.
4. The pot is big so we need to protect our hand
5. It was check to an LP bettor who could bet any range of hands including unimproved Aces.
6. The pot is big and we need to protect our hand.

I think this line you said:
[ QUOTE ]
if it checks thru, then you likely have the best hand, and if an A comes on the turn you're probably not good anymore... what if a 10, J, or K comes on the turn though

[/ QUOTE ]
is the perfect reason to Check Raise this flop.

and your spot on when you said:
[ QUOTE ]
you'll wish you had bet on the flop, b/c with that many players you're chances of being good have gone down quite a bit

[/ QUOTE ]

But i think charging them twice accomplishes this much better.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[belloc]

[ QUOTE ]
So if I bet the flop and get 3 callers, do I bet the turn if a rag falls? How about if an Ace or King hits? Do I bet/fold to a turn raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I keep betting this as long as rags keep falling. I'm always hesitant to fold to a raise on the same round (mostly to keep the bluffers away), but if any situation would demand it, it would be this one (only two outs available to beat the queen, three flop callers, etc.).

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

I'd either bet the flop or CR. Your hand is likely still good, even against this field. When you have the best hand, bet it.

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
Dude,

In both of your posts, you gave excellent reasons for CR'ing this flop - yet you keep saying it's the wrong move WHY?.....

1. Our hand might be good.
2. The pot is big so we need to protect our hand
3. Our hand is vulnerable to alot of overcalls, so you need to charge them as much as you can to draw out.
4. The pot is big so we need to protect our hand
5. It was check to an LP bettor who could bet any range of hands including unimproved Aces.
6. The pot is big and we need to protect our hand.



[/ QUOTE ]

Well, at this point, you've only got 1 guy who you'd be charging 2 bets by CR'ing. I agree that ONCE you've already check, and an LP who could be betting a range of hands...then CR is the correct move. My point was that you can't count on LP betting a weak hand, thats why betting out is better. CR'ing is probably better than calling, I didn't say that it wasn't, I just said that you shouldn't check to begin with.

However, in this spot I think its close, since you only have 1 guy in between. Even still, raising is still probably better than calling since by doing this you should a lot of strenght, so you could potentially get somebody to fold a single A or K overcard on the turn if it blanks. And also you have the outside chance of making a slightly better hand fold by showing a lot of strength.