A 15/30 Hand that might be helpful - and a hand reading exercise.

[James282]

Ok, since there have been a lot of posts like "where can I be more aggressive" regarding preflop and postflop play I thought I'd share a typical yet slightly complex hand I played in the 15/30 today. Basically what I want people to do is, go through and put my opponents on hands as the hand progresses, and see if you think my decisions in this hand were rational, or simply chipspraying. The button in this hand has an agression of .9 and MP1 is decidedly too loose.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button calls, MP1 calls.

River: (18.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets

-James

[SomethingClever]

I think button has JJ. MP1 has a busted flush draw.

Why did you bet the flop with 7 players in? Is it a value bet at that point with your overs? I play it just like you do except I check/call the flop.

I suck at poker though, so I'm probably wrong.

[J.R.]

MP1 has a meekly played flush/straight draw, or a middling pair if he is loose. Button appears to have called the flop with overcards (or KJ as he is passive) and turned a K. Button wants to protect his hand on the turn in this biggish pot so the turn raise looks like at least a K as his aggression factor is low. The turn 3-bet is close but you are almost always ahead of a loose MP1 here and the button could have coldcalled KT, K9s or K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifx /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, although with button's passivity his turn raise probably isn't much else you beat. Not to sure I like the turn 3-bet v a passive opponent.

I don't care for the flop bet in an aggresisve game with lots of opponents and no pair.

[Victor]

I havent played much 15-30 but at 3-6 I think that is a very tough 3bet. I dont know what aggression factor is either. So if he is laggy that is fine. If he is passive your 3bet sucks. I would say villain most likely has KQ or KJ.

MP clearly has a flush or straight draw.

Howd I do?

[runa]

The flop bet seems fine. You want to knock anyone out here if you can, and you have a decent backdoor str8 draw as well.

The turn chkraise from BB seems like a BB special 2-pair of some kind. MP1 might be calling down with who knows what, but might be on a draw of some kind (flush, picked up an OESD). Since BB's raise cleaned out most of the field, and its pretty clear MP1 isn't folding, the 3-bet doesn't seem to make much sense. With 14.5:1 on the turn call and about 5 outs I think a call is better here.

EDIT: also aggression factor makes BB's turn raise worrisome

The river is pretty straightforward as no obvious draws complete and you're most likely ahead of BB's 2-pair at this point.

[James282]

BB didn't check-raise the turn, the button raised the turn. Also, an aggression factor of .9 is pretty much average, not weak and not overly aggressive, in my experience.
-James

[J.R.]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, an aggression factor of .9 is pretty much average, not weak and not overly aggressive, in my experience

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you filter out preflop, or is this an aggresison factor based on all streets?

[sthief09]

I don't really see a point in the flop bet, but that's not the point of the post. I'm sure you have your reasons.

The button could have a range of hands here. He didn't raise the flop, which means that he's either slowplaying you or he picked something up. If he's tightish, there's a good chance he picked up a K on the turn with KQ or KJ. He would've raised the flop with KJ with the chance to clear out a 7-way field. So he's either got a set, KJ, or KQ. I don't see him raising anything less than that because he's pretty passive.

MP1 is loose so we're assuming you have him.

I guess you decided to 3-bet since MP1 is probably drawing to 5 outs (one pair is a lot more likely than a flush draw) and you're getting 2-1 on your raise. if capped, you're probably drawing to at best 3 outs and can fold. I don't quite agree with it right now, but I'm looking forward to seeing what hands you put them on.

[Justin A]

I'll take a stab.

MP1 has done nothing but call, probably a draw of some sort, most likely diamonds.

Button is tougher, and given his passivity I feel like it could be anything from KT to a set after his turn raise. I think you can rule out KJ, but KQ is possible, as is Kxd.

I'm also curious about the flop bet and your reasoning there.

Justin A

[runa]

Whoops. I tend to misread posts don't I?

The aggression factor seems to indicate his turn raise is fairly rational.

Given your play on previous streets the Button probably doesn't put you on Kx, and you might still be ahead with a better kicker, but you might also be behind 2-pair, or a set. Instead of 3-betting and folding to a cap I'd prefer to call the turn, bet the river.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
He would've raised the flop with KJ with the chance to clear out a 7-way field.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think a passive player makes this raise on the flop to clean up his overcard outs.

[J.R.]

KJ would be top pair, K kicker. But depending on what a .9 aggression factor means, I might be persuaded KJ might not raise this flop, but its not too probable.

[runa]

He would have TPGK not overcards for a made hand on the flop, so I do think KJ would have raised the flop and probably capped the turn.

[mike_wzrd]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: (14 SB) 5, J, 7 (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) K (5 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, Button raises, BB folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero 3-bets, Button calls, MP1 calls.

River: (18.50 BB) Q (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets


[/ QUOTE ]

I'll give it a try.

On the flop you want to reduce the field as much as possible, so a bet and raise would be positive. I'm surprised you didn't get raised by someone with a flush draw. Flop raise may also buy the button and potentially buy a free turn card. No one raising you gives some indication that no one has a big hand.

Turn raise means button has a king. I don't think he has a KJ or he would have raised the flop to limit the field. I also think he caps here with 2 pair. He doesn't have a set or he would have capped it. So I think you still have the best hand.

River is standard. I'd put the button on Kxs.

[James282]

[ QUOTE ]


I'll give it a try.

On the flop you want to reduce the field as much as possible, so a bet and raise would be positive. I'm surprised you didn't get raised by someone with a flush draw. Flop raise may also buy the button and potentially buy a free turn card. No one raising you gives some indication that no one has a big hand.

Turn raise means button has a king. I don't think he has a KJ or he would have raised the flop to limit the field. I also think he caps here with 2 pair. He doesn't have a set or he would have capped it. So I think you still have the best hand.

River is standard. I'd put the button on Kxs.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of responses touched on things that I think about this hand but this one is almost complete with regards to why I played the hand this way. A couple issues went a little untouched but almost all were mentioned at some point.

Here's my thinking. Preflop? Standard in any game. I don't think it's really debatable.

Now the flop comes, a lot of people take issue with the flop bet, but, if someone else bets won't I have to call anyway? I bet because betting and calling cost the same amount but betting gains me more information. So I bet. If someone raises, I can put them on at least a pair(but probably not a monster given the slowplayitis so many people have). But no one raises. Immediately I think no one has a jack. In my experience, people with top pair raise with so many people in the pot. I take that back: maybe not a bad J, but a QJ and up they would raise. So I have to like my overcard outs.

The turn: Perfect. I bet again, and now the button raises, hmm. Let's backpeddle a sec. What has the button done so far? Call my pfr(AK seems unlikely), call my flop bet(so either a monster or nothing), and now he has raised the turn. He is averagely agressive. What can he have? At the time I put him on KQ, KXd, or KxH, or a flopped set. Now the action gets to MP1 who...calls 2 cold?? Ok, this idiot is on a draw. So now there are 2 scenarios that are pretty much equally likely. Either A) I'm ahead or tied and I want to get more money in, given the overlay. B) I'm way, way behind and I can probably give it up if there is any more aggression. So I three-bet. Now the button just called and I'm convinced I'm getting at least half of this pot if the river blanks. The river plays itself. FWIW I would have bet pretty much any river card. Thoughts?
-James

[James282]

Button had KTh, and the other dude folded. He then started bitching that he never makes any draws and PP is rigged.
-James

[Folding Pete]

Never played 15/30 but for what it is worth this is how I would play the hand.

Preflop I call unless a raise has a very good chance of getting 3 way and the two MP are extremly loose preflop.

On the flop if I called preflop, I check and fold with nothing and a unraised smaller pot. Normally if I raise preflop then I will bet overcards on the flop just out of instinct. Check and fold is probably a little too tight because of the pot odds in this raised pot. Check &amp; call seems okay.

On the turn I like the 3 bet if the player is known as way too aggressive. Generally I never 3 bet a top pair hand in such a multiplayer pot. I would just check and call against a random player. The 3 bet does makes money off a flush drawing middle player. The 3rd bet is essentially a value bet and after all your aggression, and the possibility of you raising preflop with AK, then a button raise normally means you are behind to something like KJ, or a set. In the latter cases, if capped, you may well find yoour 3 bet value bet costing you 2BB when you are behind with draws against you.

Because the button didn't cap it I like your river bet. I would put MP on Q10s and button on K10.

Always be folding

Folding Pete

[James282]

[ QUOTE ]
Never played 15/30 but for what it is worth this is how I would play the hand.

Preflop I call unless a raise has a very good chance of getting 3 way and the two MP are extremly loose preflop.

On the flop if I called preflop, I check and fold with nothing and a unraised smaller pot. Normally if I raise preflop then I will bet overcards on the flop just out of instinct. Check and fold is probably a little too tight because of the pot odds in this raised pot. Check &amp; call seems okay.

On the turn I like the 3 bet if the player is known as way too aggressive. Generally I never 3 bet a top pair hand in such a multiplayer pot. I would just check and call against a random player. The 3 bet does makes money off a flush drawing middle player. The 3rd bet is essentially a value bet and after all your aggression, and the possibility of you raising preflop with AK, then a button raise normally means you are behind to something like KJ, or a set. In the latter cases, if capped, you may well find yoour 3 bet value bet costing you 2BB when you are behind with draws against you.

Because the button didn't cap it I like your river bet. I would put MP on Q10s and button on K10.

Always be folding

Folding Pete

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey folding Pete, the large majrority of what you wrote is weak-tight.
-James

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
A) I'm ahead or tied and I want to get more money in, given the overlay. B) I'm way, way behind and I can probably give it up if there is any more aggression.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really like the turn play here, and this is a very good example of using reads to make aggressive plays with moderately strong hands, something I've been trying to do a lot more lately...however, when you say give up if he caps, do you mean call the cap then check/fold? You can't actually fold this for one more bet on the turn, right?

I mean if he's got a set you're drawing dead, but there is the chance that he's got K7s or K5s, in which case you got some outs.

Also, would you bet the river, or just check/call if a diamond, and/or an A fell?

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
Button had KTh, and the other dude folded. He then started bitching that he never makes any draws and PP is rigged.
-James


[/ QUOTE ]

I thought PP was rigged so that you always hit your draws??
/images/graemlins/confused.gif

He must have just cashed out!!!

[James282]

I would bet regardless of what fell. If the player capped, I would fold the river unimproved. I do need to call if the board pairs at all, or I make two pair or trips.
-James

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
I do need to call if the board pairs at all, or I make two pair or trips.


[/ QUOTE ]

ok, just checking, thats what i was thinking...you really bet the river if A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif falls here?

if so, i'm guessing this would be a bet/fold if MP checkraises you?

[wuwei]

oops, good point. Misread the board.

[James282]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I do need to call if the board pairs at all, or I make two pair or trips.


[/ QUOTE ]

ok, just checking, thats what i was thinking...you really bet the river if A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif falls here?

if so, i'm guessing this would be a bet/fold if MP checkraises you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes to all of that.

[Folding Pete]

Maybe I am weak-tight!

As I said I don't play 15-30. In the games I play a raise with KQoff in mid won't accomplish anything much except to maybe check to me on the flop. If it's a ace high flop, I can bet but no ace is going to fold. If it's a king high flop those who hit the flop are getting the right odds to call my single bet. If I hadn't of raised and it comes king high maybe somebody will bet in to me allowing me to raise.

I would think weak tight is where you fold too easily, allow other players to bet you out of your good hands. My problem is I never believe anybody so I maybe call a raise too much. But I don't fold, I just call it down. Maybe I am not aggressive enough certainly not weak. Weak is were you give up too easily.

Always be folding

Folding Pete

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I am weak-tight!

As I said I don't play 15-30. In the games I play a raise with KQoff in mid won't accomplish anything much except to maybe check to me on the flop. If it's a ace high flop, I can bet but no ace is going to fold. If it's a king high flop those who hit the flop are getting the right odds to call my single bet. If I hadn't of raised and it comes king high maybe somebody will bet in to me allowing me to raise.

I would think weak tight is where you fold too easily, allow other players to bet you out of your good hands. My problem is I never believe anybody so I maybe call a raise too much. But I don't fold, I just call it down. Maybe I am not aggressive enough certainly not weak. Weak is were you give up too easily.

Always be folding

Folding Pete

[/ QUOTE ]


THis is weak...sorry.

not pushing your edges is weak, and when you don't raise and bet enough when you have the best of it, you're being weak

[James282]

You call a lot of raises preflop? Oh baby, you've got a lot to learn.
-James

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
I would think weak tight is where you fold too easily, allow other players to bet you out of your good hands. My problem is I never believe anybody so I maybe call a raise too much. But I don't fold, I just call it down. Maybe I am not aggressive enough certainly not weak. Weak is were you give up too easily.

[/ QUOTE ]

Weak/tight is when you fold too easily &amp; don't bet enough... so maybe you're weak/tight PF, and weak/loose Postflop, which isn't too much better.

As James said, you do indeed have a lot to learn if you're regularly calling down anytime another player shows you some aggression.

[me454555]

I put MP on a flush draw or to a lesser extent a strait draw
I put button on either KJ or more likely KQ. I don't understand the 3 bet on the turn though b/c I don't see very many times when you're ahead and you're not really proctecting your hand.

[James282]

So if two of us have the same hand, and one guy is drawing, I don't want to put more money in because..
-James

[Folding Pete]

James, I do have a lot to learn. But please if you are going to comment on what I written, make sure that I have written it.

I have not mentioned anywhere about calling preflop raises.

We were discussing whether to 3 bet a the raise by the button on the turn. Don't take it personally I am not saying that I think you are wrong. You are correct if you are correct in your assessment of this player. I would play it differently because I would not be that confident in my assesment of the player's strength of holding.

I most likely give players too much respect when they start battling me on the turn. It's an expensive business, I'll give them respect and I'll let them bet the hand, in such a situation but I will go to the river with it. I like to fight my battles when my enemies are weak not strong.

I would look at it that apparently even though the hero raised preflop, betting the flop and the turn the button still raises then I give HIM some respect. Perhaps he's just on a stone cold bluff with an underpair, then he will fold the reraise. I am quite happy letting a habitual bluffer bet my hands for me. Personally I wouldn't 3 bet it because if he capped I would still call a bet on the river un-improved because of the size of the pot and because I don't call a bet with a hand (not a draw) on the turn, intending to fold on the river.

Maybe it's just playing small stakes but I see players pull all sorts of hands out of their asses, and J5 would be one of the better ones.

I do like the idea of charging the presumed flush draw extra bets on the turn.

Always be folding

Folding Pete

[me454555]

b/c 1) Your drawing to only half the pot 2) there is a chance your weaker opponent is on KJ and was afraid to raise the flop b/c of all the aggression you showed pf 3) He could be very weak pf and only call w/AK 4) He could as you said, have flopped a set.

Combine all those possibilities w/the fact that MP1 has a very live draw and I don't know if you have the overlay to make that 3 bet. Consider the fact that if button has you beat you're looking at getting capped and I don't like this 3 bet at all. Looks like it could cost you 2 additional bets when behind and gain you 1 additional bet when ahead.

[pfkaok]

HOw can you say this:

[ QUOTE ]
I put MP on a flush draw or to a lesser extent a strait draw
I put button on either KJ or more likely KQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

then go on to say this:

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand the 3 bet on the turn though b/c I don't see very many times when you're ahead

[/ QUOTE ]

????

If your reads are correct, They you're either ahead or tied!!!!

when you're ahead like this on the turn you're going to win way more than your fair share (33%) of the time vs. 2 others. If so, then you are going to gain significantly for each bet and raise that goes in here.

Its not about "protecting your hand"... its about putting more money into the pot that you're likely going to win.

[me454555]

I answered that in my other post. Even though you're ahead of one player, how sure can you be that you are ahead of the other? Yeah you're making money off one guy but you can easily be giving money to another. Not to mention, if my read is correct on MP1, his draw will come in 20% of the time making this raise less profitable.

[pfkaok]

Well, even if you're tied, and his draw comes in 20% of the time, then you'll still win half the pot 80% of the time, which is pretty good... Of course when the button is ahead of you this is a bad raise, but since KJ, and AK are very unlikely for button, there is a better chance that you are ahead here. Of course he could have been slowplaying a set, but I think its more likely that he's got K10, K9 or Kxs

[gonores]

Why is it that whenever I hit one of these things right on the head, the poster already has the reply posted. With moron boy in the middle this is a super-easy 3bet.

The fun question is whether or not you'd fold immediately if he capped it on you.

[Trix]

Good to see that you started to post more here /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

I dont get your flopbet though, I wouldnt think that you are likely to clean outs or get a free card as I hear the 15 should be very aggro, so I´d check here, but will like to hear your reasoning.

I put Button on a draw here as he probably would have raised a made he would coldcall with.

Turn, well given my read on the flop I agree with the 3bet as I dont think you will see K5 often. K7 very liekly would have raised, if he even play that.
could also be a semi-bluff with 78d or such.

River is a standard valuebet I guess.

[sthief09]

you say on the flop if you check, you'll call anyway. well, if you bet and get called, you're behind, even if it's to bottom pair or ace high. if you bet and get raised, you have to call, and you're behind, and you've spend 2 SB drawing to tainted outs a 3 straight on a two-tone red board with 2 black cards. when the flop comes out, there's one assumption you can make: "I'm behind." that's why I'd check. you aren't going to clear it out enough and you're going to get raised too often. if you check, you don't have to call. a lot of the time you get a free turn card. a lot of the time the CO or button bets and you fold to an EP player's check raise. a lot of the time you check and there's a bet behind you and a few calls and you fold, or a bet and only one call or none. by checking you defer your position and gain more information than betting. you say that betting lets you see who has something. well, checking accomplishes the same thing, but at a reduced cost. getting a "free" river card isn't going to happen that often. there are too many bad things that can happen for betting the flop to be right. if betting is right on that flop in your spot, then I have a lot of thinking and reevaluating to do, because I think that it's a pretty bad flop, especially in a somewhat loose and very aggressive game. I'd hate to pay 2 bets to see the turn.

as for the turn, you're getting 2-1, the vast majority of the time, you're nicely ahead (around 4-1) or way behind (to a set or kings up). the most likely hands are clearly KJ, KQ, or a set. KT isn't something you'll see too often against a guy like this. maybe he has top pair and a flush draw, but again, you aren't THAT far ahead of that. against the range of hands he might have, I don't think you'll win 33% of the time.

I honestly think if you lost the hand or even chopped, you would have a much harder time defending your actions, but I haven't played that game and the possibility that my lack of understanding how it works could be making me make some false assumptions. I still can't see how the flop bet is right though

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet regardless of what fell. If the player capped, I would fold the river unimproved. I do need to call if the board pairs at all, or I make two pair or trips.
-James

[/ QUOTE ]

well if the board pairs, that'll leave one 2-pair combination that you beat. if the 7 pairs, it's J5. if the 5 pairs, it's J7. if the J pairs, it's 75. how likely is he to have cold called with these hands?

[sthief09]

also, I re-read a lot of TOP on my 4 hour bus ride to Maryland over the weekend, and this reminded me of it. on the flop, if you let it get checked through, you aren't giving a free card because you don't have the best hand. With AK, it's remotely possible you're giving a free card. Your flop bet relies on 2 things, which are getting a free river card and semi-bluffing better hands, like A-high. protecting your hand has 0 role in your flop bet, which is generally the reason we bet unimproved overcards.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
also, I re-read a lot of TOP on my 4 hour bus ride
to Maryland over the weekend

[/ QUOTE ]

What is TOP?

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
What is TOP?

[/ QUOTE ]

Theory of Poker by Sklansky. After Small Stakes Hold'em and Hold'em Poker For Advanced Players, it is the next book you should be reading (if you are somewhat experienced).

[me454555]

Why do you say AK and KJ are very unlikely. He's a weak player as characterized by his calling 2 cold pf and just calling on the flop. Theres an excellent chance he's afraid to bet KJ b/c he thinks you've got him beat. Maybe hes one of those players that thinks AK is a drawing hand so I'd rather just call 2 cold than 3 bet it. While both are not the optimal play, you can't completly discount this line.

The whole reason I don't like this raise is b/c your only drawing to half the post most of the time. You've got to be dead on about you're read that there is no chance he is a weak player and has you beat.

[mikeyKay]

heres what i think, button's raise on the turn must mean a K of some kind...i dont see him calling a PFR cold with anything that would give him 2 pair besides KJ, i think think he would have done something with it on flop. So hands i think he has are KQ, KT, K9, maybe AJ...at the worst you are tied. MP1 looks to be on a draw all the way, 68 or 2 diamonds.

-mike

[James282]

If on the flop I bet, and it's raised, or three-bet back to me then I have more information about how to play the turn. Also, betting disguises my hand --- I bet most flops after I raise preflop in this game(my live game is a little different) whether I have the absolute nuts or pretty much nothing. You do make a good case for checking the flop and it could be right or it could be wrong. I win a lot of flops unimproved with overcards, and when I don't win the flop, I'll sometimes win the turn. The pot has 15 SB in it, so I'm willing to invest 1 bet now to see where I stand when the turn comes around. If I check and someone bets, what have they told me? They have some lousy pair? They have a draw? They have a set? If I bet I'm usually not going to get raised on this particular table by less than top pair(I did raise preflop, after all!) Anyways, the flop bet or lack of flop bet can be debated and may or may not be correct. This is a hand more about extracting the most postflop based on the way your opponents have played their hands.

I can find hands I played this way that I lost, but after 100k hands in this game I think a lot of my winrate comes from pumped up postflop aggression where I see other winning players slowing down. I could be wrong, I could be running well --- but you recently asked "why aren't any players I know crushing the 5/10"? I think that a lot of people aren't paying enough attention to those 2nd and 3rd levels - "What does my opponent have?" "What does my opponent think I have?" In this case, I think my opponent has a king. In this case, I also think my opponent thinks that he can beat me, because he raised. But if he has a king, and he thinks that have QQ or TT or AJ or 99 or whatever he wants to think, when I actually have a king with a good kicker, it's time to reraise. If he reraises again I am actually put to a tough decision. But he didn't, so I was right. Want me to post a few hands where I win unimproved in situations like this(although with fewer callers, usually)? Want me to post some hands where I raise too much on the turn and lose? Where I get slowplayed and get slammed on later streets? All of these things happen, but when the percentages thaw out in the long run the results seem to be in my favor - and I don't think that it would be harder to justify my reasoning if I lost this hand, as you suggest I would. The whole point is to not be results-oriented, right?
-James

[James282]

[ QUOTE ]
also, I re-read a lot of TOP on my 4 hour bus ride to Maryland over the weekend, and this reminded me of it. on the flop, if you let it get checked through, you aren't giving a free card because you don't have the best hand. With AK, it's remotely possible you're giving a free card. Your flop bet relies on 2 things, which are getting a free river card and semi-bluffing better hands, like A-high. protecting your hand has 0 role in your flop bet, which is generally the reason we bet unimproved overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is where you're wrong. You can protect your hand even if you don't have the best hand yet. If t9 folded that flop, I protected my hand, do you see? You can protect your hand just by increasing your own personal equity postflop. You do this by making people fold. I think TOP touches on this, but maybe you have misinterpreted slightly.
-James

[sthief09]

OK, well I buy your turn 3-bet now. Sets don't happen that much, but what really got me was you saying that your opponent is probably putting you on QQ since he has a K, which means that your K with a good kicker is good. I think you're absolutely right.

Also, it doesn't really look like we're going to get anywhere on the flop bet. It probably goes better with your style. I'm a lot weaker than you, so I don't know that I could back my flop bet up with enough aggression to make it profitable. I'd wilt on the turn too much, which would defeat the purpose of the flop bet.

I'm glad you've started posting here. I like being able to challenge people with a lot of questions and have them all answered. great post

[sthief09]

well, T9 would have a correct call. The only way you increase your equity enough is by making people make mistakes by folding. getting 15 or 16-1, not many people are folding. if you think you can make people make incorrect folds, like a non-dominated card with a backdoor straight draw, such as QT, then I think you have a valid argument.

[James282]

Hey sthief - yeah, if you wilt up on the turn the flop bet loses a lot of its point. We can agree to disagree on the flop bet, because you're right that it's probably a "metagame" play for me as much as it is a "this hand" play for me. I still think it's right for me in this hand, but you're right that it's probably not right for everyone.
-James

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey sthief - yeah, if you wilt up on the turn the flop bet loses a lot of its point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying that if the turn blanks you are going to keep firing chips into the pot? I think it's safe to assume that with 7 opponents on this flop that you are going to the turn with at lesat 2 opponents very often.

With this in mind I can't see firing another barrel unless the turn is a K, Q, T, A or mybe a J. What are you doing when a black 2 comes, or some other raggedy card?

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
Theory of Poker by Sklansky. After Small Stakes Hold'em and Hold'em Poker For Advanced Players, it is the next book you should be reading (if you are somewhat experienced).

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. I'm reading that book now; I just didn't make the connection. On the subject of poker books, what do you think of the book Middle Limit Hold 'em Poker by Ciaffone and Brier?

[James282]

I'm not saying it's correct to fire again against 7 opponents or whatever, I'm saying that in many situations(where a lot of gutshots are present, for instance). Like if I raise preflop and it's fourhanded to the flop, HU on the turn and no one has shown any aggresson, I'm almost always betting.
-James