My WSOP $2K NLHE Bustout Hand

A few weeks ago I posted about a hand where I held AK in the big blind and smooth-called a late-position raise, and was roundly chastised for not coming over the top.


Here I am in the WSOP $2000 No-Limit Hold'em tournament held on Monday, April 22. It's just after the first break, and I've got a stack of about $3500. Blinds are (as I recall) $200 and $300. I'm in the #3 seat, in the big blind, holding Ah Kh. Max Stern, in the #6 seat, opens for $600, twice the big blind. He has at least twice as many chips as I do. (Stern and I had never played together before, but we have had some time to watch each other during this tournament.)


Remembering the discussion here earlier (as well as discussions with friends) I decide that the right course of action is to put just about half my stack in and see how Stern reacts, and to push the rest in on the flop unless it is truly terrifying.


So I put $1500 more in. Stern thinks for a moment, then just calls. I'm reasonably sure that if he had AA or KK he'd move in; I put him on a medium pair, no bigger than QQ.


The flop comes ragged, ten-high. If he has TT, I'm toast, but I think I can push him off anything else. I "consider" for a moment, then push the rest of my stack in.


Stern thinks for a while, and then calls, seemingly reluctantly. "All right, let's see those aces" says the player to my left. We turn our cards up. No help on the turn or river, and Stern's pocket queens hold up.


What do people think of my play?


(A) They don't call it "Walking Back to Houston

for nothing. Muck it before the flop and wait for aces.


(B) Try harder to push him off before the flop. Move all-in.


(C) Once he calls you before the flop, you know

your hand is second best. Check and fold on the

flop.


(D) "Don't get cute in the big blind." Call the

small raise, and see whether the flop hits you.


(E) Other: ________________________________

I believe that a pre flop raise (allin)in that situation would have forced the other player to consider risks,maybe even put you on a better hnd and not call?

In my opinion , a better play would have been to call the $600 raise , see the flop and fold with a stack of $2900. I n your mind he could have QQ .This is not intended to be Monday morning quarterbacking.You gave him credit for a hand and failed to listen to yourself.

> Here I am in the WSOP $2000 No-Limit Hold'em tournament


OK, this is way out of my league and probably you guys think two or three levels deeper than I ever would, but it seems to me that this play maximized the likelyhood to only get called when you're beat .


My vote is B or maybe D.


cu


Ignatius

Choice A is insane.


Choice D means you check and fold on two out of three flops, and make almost nothing on the rest of them (Max Stern probably isn't paying you off when a king flops, and certainly not when an ace flops). Also, you risk flopping top pair when Max flops a set, in which case you lose all your chips. Still, the pot is offering you 3-1, and the odds against your liking the flop are about 2-1, so this is likely a profitable play. But I don't think it's your best choice.


I don't know what Max is up to with this minimum raise, but I have a real hand. I'm all-in. No way I'm letting him see a flop if he has a small or medium pair, or suited connectors, or even a weak ace.


And I don't want to make it 1800 either. There are two problems with this. 1) If he reraises I have to call, and 2) He's much more likely to call (or reraise) with medium pairs if I make it 1800.


If I move in, Max Stern probably won't call me with TT or JJ. He may even fold QQ (although that's unlikely given his stack size). Let's reasonably say he folds anything but QQ, KK, AA, and AK there. Even if he needed AJ or better to raise, that leaves you with an 80 percent chance that Max will fold. Not only that, 5 out of 7 times that he calls, you'll be up against QQ of AK, where you are essentially a coin flip. The only time you're really in trouble is when he has AA, which is less than a 3 percent shot.


The downside to moving in, of course, is that it increases your chances of going broke. But that's a risk I'm willing to take with AKs. Moving in increases your chances of winning the pot, and increases your EV.


I vote for B.


Matt

For what it's worth, here's my prior post where I discussed my smooth-calling a late-position raise with AK. Differences between that situation and this:


(1) The raiser was in late position, not early.


(2) Antes as well as blinds made the pot rather bigger than the bet size.


(3) I had a less-than-average stack instead of one that was comfortably more than average.


(3) The raiser (Paul Kho) was a solid Bay Area local, but not a world-class player with a bracelet.

Alan,


I think it's too early in the tournament to give your stack away on approximately a 50% chance. If I didn't flop a big draw or an ace or king, I'd fold to a bet.


The larger stack will usually call in this situation. The reason for this is he thinks because he has queens you could have aces, kings, or ace-king. There are 16 combinations of ace-king, 6 combinations of aces, and 6 combinations of kings. So, there are 16 combinations he beats and 12 that beat him. So, he basically has a 57% chance to beat you in this situation.


I would avoid reraising with AK preflop when a solid player with a large stack comes in with a raise. But, if his stack was smaller than mine, I'd probably reraise all in preflop.


Good Luck


Mark

Alan,


In this spot, with the chips being the way they are, I'm in favour of your flat- calling Stern's raise and seeing what the flop brings.


On the flop, I believe (C) is your best play;

you don't have a hand any more, just two overcards.


Giving it up before the flop isn't an option,in my mind-if you don't play this hand in this spot, what will you play, and how will you ever get action?


perfidious

I'm not going to comment on your play except to say that there is discussion of this exact situation in David's new tournament book. You may want to look at it.

> he thinks because he has queens you could have aces, kings, or ace-king. [..] he basically has a 57% chance to beat you


???


12/24*53.8% + 6/24*18.8% + 6/24*19.1% = 36.3%, so he is almost an 2:1 dog. With that read he should fold: He is only getting 3:2 if the money goes in preflop. And when he calls, he can get away 1/3 of the times, win in on the flop 1/3 of the times, but will lose it all 1/3 of the times. Even if he figues that AK would always bet into him, the best he can hope for (short of a set) is a coin-flip for all his chips.


cu


Ignatius

Yes, I bought the book and read it ... AFTER I played the tournament, but before I posted this.


Sklansky's recommendation is, of course, to move in before the flop, ideally if moving in before the flop involves raising something like 3 to 5 times the size of the pot. In this case, with 500 in blind money and 600 from Stern's bet, pushing in involved just about exactly three times the size of the pot.


My twin concerns were (1) not to get broke if Stern held AA or KK; and (2) to credibly represent AA if he did not. Also, I did not wish to cede initiative to him once I had seized it; and I don't want to play the hand any differently than I would play AA.


(If I have AA in that spot, I *want* to get all Stern's money in the middle, if only to chop it up should we have the same hand. I *don't* push in before the flop then, because I want his call, and I *do* push in on most flops, including the one we saw.)


The real question here is, if I had pushed in preflop, would Stern have called with QQ?

AK is a hand you don't want to see a flop with. If you decide to play it, move in with it pre-flop. The only hands that wouldn't fold are AA and KK. Be happy with what's already in.

Ignatius,


Let me clarify. When you hold queens and get reraised, and your opponent will reraise with AA, KK, or AK. Your opponent will have AK 57% of the time. My mistake implying that he has a 57% chance to win.


Good Luck


Mark

If I was in Max Sterns positition and Alan raised all-in I'd be less likely to put in on Aces, if he's on Aces he wants me to call and would therefore make the kind of Raise Alan made for all his stack.

ANYBODY,


"The only hands that wouldn't fold are AA and KK".


Not true. QQ will call, and even JJ if they have a large stack.


I was in a situation at the $500 No-Limit Hold'em event at the WPO earlier this year, and had AK on the button. The blinds were 50 and 100. Two players limped in, the cutoff raised all-in with 250, and I moved in with 925. The small blind had about 2000 and called with JJ and won.


When you have a big stack behind you or the raiser has a big stack, they will call with these hands.


Good Luck


Mark

"The real question here is, if I had pushed in preflop, would Stern have called with QQ?"


ai YAH!!!


That is exactly NOT the real question. Yours is a very results oriented question, and as such should be the last thing you think about. The real question is:


What is the most profitable way to play the hand?


Versus the distribution of hands that you are facing, pushing all in is easily the most profitable play. Postflop you are only going to get action from dominated hands, sets, and pocket pairs when the flop comes out with no A/K.


Get it all-in now, and pray you take the pot, or suck out.


- Andrew

I agree, get it in BTF or fold. Put your opponent to the decision. I think it would have been easier to do this if (1)he had his opponent covered and (2) his opponent was not of Max Stern's caliber.


And BTW, congrats on your 2nd place finish at the WSOP last week.


KC50

The better your opponent is the more you should tend to bash it all in and take your chances, rather than tiptoe around and let him outplay you on the flop. How many times do I have to say that ?


Andy.

I agree, that's why I said "get it in BTF or fold. Put your opponent to the decision".


The reason I also said "I think it would have been easier to do this if (1)he had his opponent covered and (2) his opponent was not of Max Stern's caliber" is this.


Weaker opponents may be open raising BTF with much less than QQ and will make the incorrect decision in calling with a lesser hand more so than a better player will.


KC50

No problem, I thought you were probably aware of that - just making sure !


Andy.

I have an opinion, what else is new:


Anyway, I think your preflop raise was a good one. He will fold unless he holds JJ QQ or AK. I doubt he calls with anything less. You ARE representing a BIG hand. AK is the WORST you could have.


Remember he is good enough to know that you are in the blind re-raising an early position raiser who happens to be a world class player.


He is correct to put you on AA, KK or AK. So, he must just call with QQ and maybe even KK. If he moves in, you probably have to call--but when he has QQ he does not want you to call with any of the above hands that is why he did not move in.


When you miss the flop you need to check. Why? Because if you (or at least if I) had AA here you would check. Because if he has AK you need him to bluff at the pot, and if he has KK he will bet for you, and if he has any other pair he only has 2 outs.


Of course Max knows this, so he may very well check QQ behind you for fear of AA. He MAY check QQ all the way to the river--either way, if he bets after calling that re-raise preflop you are DONE unless you improve. The only value in puching in the flop is if he has the other AK--then he will (probably)muck.


If you were playing a fish the move in on any flop play works fine, a WCP pretty much sees through it.

I'm going to reply before reading anyone else's answer.


I don't like A at all.


B is the best option in my opinion given the short stack. He has to have AA to be a big favourite, you have one of them, and it's also unlikely that Max would make such a small raise with AA and let someone take a shot at him. In my mind the small raise says I like my hand but i don't love it. You might need more chips for the allin to work, but i still prefer it over a halfway raise.


C. Not a good option, unlikely to be paid off if you hit, and unlikely he will fold if you miss. After the flop you have not enough ammuntion to push him off an overpair, or maybe even a hand like 88 he would call.


D. Possibly the best option, risks little out of position, and may let you make something postflop if you hit.


I would love to know what the scary flop is though. What can come here that would make you not move allin postflop if you thought he would fold? Worst i can think of is QJx of another suit, but even then you have a gutser.

That depends on what your image is and what he thought you had. You're talking about a very good player who can obviously lay down 2 Queens if he thinks their no good. He's oly a slight favorite against AK and dominated by Kings and Aces. Does he think you're the type to move in with Jacks or worse or to steal? If not, Push in and take the pot then and there. In last year's main event my most memorable hand was not my bust-out hand but one on the second day involving Harry Thomas. I'm 29 and this was my 1st time playing the event. I had a very tough table. (David Pham, An Tran I think, John Bonetti, Harry Thomas, and a top Euro player.) My image was pretty solid and I wasn't getting out of line too much because to be honest I was a little nervous. Anyway, I had AQs in the cut-off. I raised to 1200(Blinds are 150-300). Mr. Thomas called in the BB. The flop came QJJ. He checked and I bet 2500. He check-raised me 5000 more and I moved in for 20000 more. He thought for what seemed an eternity, showed two Kings and folded saying, I can't beat 2 Aces. He laid down the best hand but he had a reason. I think as long as you make your plays for a specific reason then they're easy to handle. To answer your question though, sometimes I would re-raise my whole stack and sometimes I would just flat call the raise...Very seldom would I re-raise and not move in in NL. Good luck

I also live in Houston so my walk back was also shitty. Better luck


Russ Floyd