Interesting Flush Draw + overcards hand

[Lmn55d]

Hey guys I thought this hand was cool. On the flop I decided to just call the initial bet because I thought that was the best way to get the most value out of my hand because that pot wasn't too big yet. When button raised and 2 coldcalled, I decided to push...I knew I was ahead of top pair unless their kicker was an ace or queen and thought I had some folding equity in this big pot, plus if 2 of the 3 guys folded there was lots of dead money. Was this a good play or no?

***** Hand History for Game 1249792679 *****
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:7598379 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Thursday, December 02, 12:08:44 EDT 2004
Table Table 13878 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 8: Rynoceros ( $800 )
Seat 1: oardispatch ( $995 )
Seat 9: HarryHood ( $800 )
Seat 5: zairas52 ( $800 )
Seat 3: davo81 ( $785 )
Seat 4: mojorisin22 ( $800 )
Seat 10: itsmineneway ( $800 )
Seat 6: Jdubden13 ( $785 )
Seat 2: alittlepoke ( $635 )
Seat 7: ChadayM ( $800 )
Trny:7598379 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HarryHood [ Qh Ah ]
zairas52 calls [15].
Jdubden13 calls [15].
ChadayM folds.
Rynoceros folds.
HarryHood calls [15].
itsmineneway folds.
oardispatch folds.
alittlepoke calls [15].
davo81 calls [5].
mojorisin22 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6h, 8s, Jh ]
davo81 bets [45].
mojorisin22 folds.
zairas52 folds.
Jdubden13 calls [45].
HarryHood calls [45].
alittlepoke raises [150].
davo81 calls [105].
Jdubden13 calls [105].
>You have options at Table 13786 Table!.
HarryHood is all-In.
>You have options at Table 13812 Table!.
alittlepoke is all-In.
davo81 folds.
Jdubden13 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4c ]
** Dealing River ** [ 3s ]
alittlepoke shows [ Qs, Js ] a pair of jacks.
HarryHood shows [ Qh, Ah ] high card ace.
HarryHood wins 165 chips from side pot #1 with high card ace.
alittlepoke wins 1630 chips from the main pot with a pair of jacks.

[YourFoxyGrandma]

Bad play, IMO. Not terrible, but. Well. First of all, you're ahead of top pair with the overcards and 4-flush, but not by much and you really have no reads and can't be sure that your opponents are going to be willing to lay down top pair here.

Also, this is so early in the tournament. Picking up this pot would be nice, but, in this situation, really not worth it for me.

Fold and get 'em later.

[slickterp]

yeah. with draws you have potential, but ace high is never ahead of a pair. he has a pair, you don't have anything. all in w/ a draw is terrible here. calling is okay b/c you do have the overcards and the draw, but it's too early to push.

[Lmn55d]

you really need to review some basic odds. I am a 54% favorite against top pair here. There are actually several situations where "ace high" is ahead of a pair.

[etgryphon]

Its an iffy play...

With that many people in the pot already it is a tough to go allin. The more people you have the less of a chance of having fold equity, especially with cold-callers.

Lets look at the math:

1. You have 1.5 out for each of you overcards for a total of 3 outs. (if you don't know why this is pick up Small Stakes Poker from twoplutwo)
2. You have 9 outs to the nut flush.

Total outs: 12

With the river and the turn coming with you allin this gives you a 45% chance or 1:1.2 odds against making you hand.

Pot: 585 + (740 ur allin) + Their call = ~1525 - ~2065
Pot odds: 1525 to 2065 / (470 to 740) = ~2.2:1 - ~1.8:1

So over one hundred hands:
100 * ((45% *(1525 to 2065) - (55% *(470 to 740))

This comes out to be +425EV - +523EV

Therefore,

It is a positive EV play, but you have to decide if you want to play when you can almost garrentee that you are behind in the hand. It is a good cash game play, but its up to you if you want to gamble a bit in a tournament setting.

-Gryph

[slickterp]

being a favorite and being ahead are different. certainly you are still favored in this hand with two overcards and a flush draw, as well as the backdoor straight draw. however, you are not ahead, you are losing currently to a better hand. if you can tell me when an ace high five card hand will beat a five card hand containing a pair, i'd love to hear about it.
it's b/c you are favored that you call here and take one off. pushing this early is clearly dangerous, unless you really feel that someone will lay down. however, based on the fact that 2people had already called the 150 raise, i would think that it would be tough to get all 3 to lay down. hence, when you get called, you are probably getting called with a hand that is beating you (currently), though you may still be favored.

[Lmn55d]

i dont really understand the distinction that you are making between having a made hand and being a favorite. I mean clearly there is a difference, but I think the important factor to look at is pot equity rather than whether a hand is "made" or not. This distinction seems kind of unimportant.

[YourFoxyGrandma]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont really understand the distinction that you are making between having a made hand and being a favorite. I mean clearly there is a difference, but I think the important factor to look at is pot equity rather than whether a hand is "made" or not. This distinction seems kind of unimportant.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's important to make a distinction between being ahead in a hand or a favorite to win when you are considering fold equity, that is, your opponent being ahead=less fold equity.

[slickterp]

in a tournament, i find it very relevant b/c you can't reload like you can in a ring game. if you lose there is no next hand. i'm just trying to tell you why i don't push here. i certainly don't fold, but pushing is too risky early on like this if you are fairly certain you are not ahead, which it is safe to assume you are not when there are 2 callers to a raise. think about it this way: what are they calling with? if they have the J, it's pretty likely they're calling a raise w/ QJ, KJ, or AJ. given that two of those hands negate your advantage of having two overcards, you essentially lose 3 outs, giving you 12 (9 to flush and 3 for the one overcard you have tht your opponent does not). this gives you odds to call for sure, but if you push and get called, there's a good chance you're in deep [censored].

[Lmn55d]

i agree completely. SO the question becomes this: WIll I be able to find better EV opportunities than pushing here. In other words, not making a +EV decision is only correct if you can expect to have the chance to make even better EV decisions in the future. The EV calculated by the guy in another reply seems fairly significant. Maybe you can help me figure out this part of the question.

[slickterp]

my answer is this: if you push and lose, you will definitely NOT be able to make any better +EV decisons in the future. if you call and don't hit, you still have the opportunity to make better +EV decisions in the future. i'm no good at calculating EV myself, so that i can't help you with, but this is how i think about it.

[Lmn55d]

hmm...the way I look at it I will be going all in sometime anyway with an EV advantage. I dont think whether I go out now is as important as the size of the EV advantage. An example: 9 people go all in 1st round of WSOP. You look down and see AA...you should clearly call. Obviously the EV advantage is magnitudes larger in that situation, but the concept is similar I think.

[tigerite]

The difference is, at this early stage even doubling up doesn't come close to guaranteeing you first place - heck, there will still be MUCH work to do to even get ITM. As for your WSOP example, I believe in this case, you should fold the AA - it was discussed in a similar fashion either yesterday or the day before.

[Hauser_III]

Isn't this hand basically the same as Raymer's hand that crippled Matusow in this year's 2004 WSOP? Raymer had the flush draw and two overcards to the board, and the only difference I can see is that Raymer went all-in on the flop immediately, rather than calling and then re-raising all-in.

[Lmn55d]

no the answer is clearly to call with the AA. It isnt close. There was a thread where Paul Phillips gave a great explanation. There is basically no player good enough to make up the EV that you would be losing by folding in this situation.

[slickterp]

the difference is that in a one table, if nine people go all in and you fold, you may get in the money without playing a hand. i don't know exactly what the odds are, but i would guess that at least 7 people go out here, putting you in the money. maybe one person wins and you are second without even trying. plus with all ten people in, there's a good chance AA doesn't win.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
being a favorite and being ahead are different.


[/ QUOTE ]

No they are not.

[ QUOTE ]

if you can tell me when an ace high five card hand will beat a five card hand containing a pair, i'd love to hear about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Completely irrelevant. Hold 'Em is a 7 card game.

This is a pretty sorry thread.

eastbay

[Lmn55d]

dude, my example was the WSOP...which is a multitable tourney. 7 people going out will not significantly increase your chances of getting into the money.

[Lmn55d]

hey man, can I get your opinion on this hand? You seem pretty competent.

[slickterp]

it wasn't raymer, it was john murphy. but he went in AFTER he hit the flush.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
hey man, can I get your opinion on this hand? You seem pretty competent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you run it through the hand converter? That format makes my eyes glaze over.

eastbay

[slickterp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
being a favorite and being ahead are different.


[/ QUOTE ]

No they are not.

i beg to differ

[ QUOTE ]

if you can tell me when an ace high five card hand will beat a five card hand containing a pair, i'd love to hear about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Completely irrelevant. Hold 'Em is a 7 card game.

so when you make a hold em hand, it has all seven cards in it? can i play at your table?

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

[Lmn55d]

i couldn't get it to work. Do you have to take the hand history from the email or is right from the game window ok?

[slickterp]

i know the WSOP is multi table, but this is the one table forum, so i'm basing my answers on that. there are definitely differences in playing the two.

[Lmn55d]

no kidding. My example was one where the chance of getting busted shouldn't completely determine your decision. This concept also applies in SNGS.

[slickterp]

i'm not saying that it should be the only thing that determines how you play by any means. as to eastbay, if the team A plays team B and team A is favored, but team B leads 1-0, is team A still ahead?

[Lmn55d]

thats a horrible analogy. Do you see why? In the "team A" example, team A was favored before the game. Now that team B is ahead, their odds of winning the game are lower than they are before team B scored. In my poker example, I am a favorite AFTER my opponent made his hand. This is the true degree that I am favored, which is not the case in your example.

[ilya]

I think this play is pretty good. The "dire" scenario seems unlikely to me; I think the reality is somewhere between the "more realistic" and "not so great" scenarios. I arrived at my opinion through these rough estimates:

Dream scenario:
50% everyone folds
50% no hearts dead, 1 call from KdJd (you are 55/45)

50% everyone folds: 585 * 0.5 = 293
50% 1 call from KdJd = (0.55)(0.5)(1070) - (0.45)(0.5)(-740) = 295 - 167 = 128
total EV: 421
chance of busting: 0.5*0.45 = 22.5%, not bad

More realistic scenario:

40% everyone folds
50% 1 heart dead, 1 call from KhJd
10% 1 heart dead, 1 call from 6s6d

40% everyone folds: 585 * 0.4 = 234
50% 1 heart dead, 1 call from KhJd: (0.5)(0.5)(1070) - (0.5)(0.5)(-740) = 267 - 185 = 82
10% 1 heart dead, 1 call from 6s6d: (0.1)(0.25)(1070) - (0.1)(0.75)(-740) = 27 - 52 = -25
total EV: 291
chance of busting: 32.5%

Not so great scenario:

20% everyone folds
70% 1 heart dead, 1 call from KhJd
10% 1 heart dead, 1 call from 6s6d

20% everyone folds: 585 * 0.2 = 117
70%: (0.7)(0.5)(1070) - (0.7)(0.5)(-740) = 375 - 260 = 115
10%: (0.1)(0.25)(1070) - (0.1)(0.75)(-740) = 27 - 56 = -30
Total ev: 202
Chance of busting: 42.5%

Dire scenario:

20% everyone folds
50% 2 hearts deads, 1 call from AsJs
30% 2 hearts dead, 1 call from 6s6d

20%: 117
50%: (0.5)(0.4)(1070) - (0.5)(0.6)(-740) = 214 - 222 = -8
30%: (0.3)(0.2)(1070) - (0.3)(0.8)(-740) = 64 - 178 = -114
total EV: -5
chance of busting: 54%

[slickterp]

okay, so the analogy wasn't that great, but i still maintain that being favored and being ahead are different.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
okay, so the analogy wasn't that great, but i still maintain that being favored and being ahead are different.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, they aren't.

If you can't understand why, keep reading books until you get it. The reason is important.

[rci97]

This is a difficult situation. In this situation, I think that it is pretty clear that you're going to get at least one call. So basically, best case scenario, you're a slight favorite "knowing" that you're going to get called. I'd like to point out the obvious though: you were not favored over the QsJs on the flop. Given the likelihood of a call and several plausible hands that you are not ahead of AND not favored over, I don't think I'd feel too good about the all in here. Nothing wrong with a call in my opinion. If a blank comes on the turn, you still have plenty of chips and time left. Gotta agree with slickterp on this one.

[rachelwxm]

You got a bet and raise and two cold call, you are never sure if you are only against a top pair here. If you really think so, then push is a positive EV play especially you believe you have FE. However, given the situation, I would probably just call. If you hit flush on turn, you probably at least double up and if blank hit and he push, you save yourself some money and still have a decent stack. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[bosoxfan]

I haven't read all the respones so sorry if it was mentioned but shouldn't you be raising pre-flop here?