Hand that knocked out Josh Arrieh in WPT Qualifier Last Night

[Prime Time]

Below is the hand that "knocked out that Mother F...." (lol remember final table when Josh wispers to Williams aboout Fossil Man)
Josh is razorbax obviously.

In fairness to Josh, I don't know anyone except for Phil Helmuth that could have gotten away from this hand.


PokerStars Game #900519628: Tournament #3521278, Hold'em No Limit - Level VII
(100/200) - 2004/11/27 - 20:33:41 (ET)
Table '3521278 1' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: namepod (12045 in chips)
Seat 2: Gamecock1 (4550 in chips)
Seat 3: Phaedrus (8365 in chips)
Seat 4: milkshakeman (6537 in chips)
Seat 5: gotmilk (6090 in chips)
Seat 6: razorbax (5650 in chips)
Seat 7: Chicago28 (9455 in chips)
Seat 8: JP123 (8703 in chips)
Seat 9: PGA71 (19910 in chips)
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PGA71 [4h 4s]
Gamecock1: folds
Phaedrus: folds
milkshakeman: folds
gotmilk: folds
razorbax: raises 400 to 600
Chicago28: folds
JP123: folds
PGA71: calls 500
namepod: folds
*** FLOP *** [4c Qs As]
PGA71: bets 600
razorbax: raises 1000 to 1600
PGA71: raises 1200 to 2800
razorbax: calls 1200
*** TURN *** [4c Qs As] [5d]
PGA71: bets 16485 and is all-in
razorbax: calls 2225 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [4c Qs As 5d] [9h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
PGA71: shows [4h 4s] (three of a kind, Fours)
razorbax: shows [Ad Qh] (two pair, Aces and Queens)
PGA71 collected 11675 from pot

Any comments?

[SossMan]

looks like josh has a bad habit of flopping big hands when his opponent flops a small set. He really needs to stop doing that if he wants to win.

that hand played itself.

[La Brujita]

FWIW preflop I think it is pretty close as to whether your hand is playable for set value given his stack size. Do you give up on most/all flops that don't flop a set or a straight draw? I don't think it is a bad call but I probably would have folded. What kind of payout structure was it?

I like that you led out on the flop, perhaps just a minor stylistic difference but I like to bet at least 1/2 the pot here (which is pretty much what you did). I do it for optics.

Once he reraises I put him all in on the flop. It seems to me his reraise pretty much commits him to play against most reraises. I feel like a reraise might (i) make it look like you are trying to use your stack to bully (ii) make it look like you are on a draw or (iii) make it look like you are protecting against a draw. The last point is not that clear but what I am trying to say is if he is on a flush draw he is probably getting all in. If he happens to think you are playing a draw a spade on the turn might make him fold some of his hands.

Don't know if that makes sense.

Best regards

[Prime Time]

pay out structure was top 13 qualify for trip to Bahamas and a WPT entry worth $11K total.

Thanks for comments.

[slickpoppa]

I'm disappointed. This would have been the perfect opportunity for you to say, "You think we're playing tiddlywinks here?"

[adanthar]

I haven't watched enough of the WSOP to nail down Arieh's playing style, but if he's on the LAG side I'm not sure I like the flop reraise. If Arieh has AJ or a total bluff he probably finds a fold here somewhere, whereas he'd happily give you his chips on the turn if you just call.

[nightlyraver]

People on this forum have called many of my analysis "helmuthian" but I feel that Josh did not play this hand optimally. Honestly, with no reads I too would go broke here. However, your betting scheme seems to scream that a set has been made or you both have exactly the same hand.

My rationale: He open-raises in MP for 3xBB (~12% of his stack) and you flat call with a huge stack. Ok, that's to be expected with many hands. However, the flop comes as it comes and you bet out a little less than half the pot. IMHO, this means only 2 things when the flop is 2-suited and it's HU - you hit 2-pair or better OR you have top pair with a questionable kicker. The latter is actually less likely since you would tend to bet closer to 2/3 the pot if you REALLY want to find out if a weak ace is good. Next thing that happens is that he raises more than 2.5x your initial bet. If you had a weak ace, you would dump it most situations unless you're gonna try and bluff at it. However, you put in a very suspicious re-raise to his raise. At this stage in the tourney, this sets off warning lights in my head (a min. re-re-raise, that is) since it appears that you love your hand and are just trying to get more money in the pot. This usually does not comport with a semi-bluff of any kind. I would then think back at what hands you could possibly have called a raise with pre-flop and then bet like this now. I would usually rule out AK which could comport w/ a flat call of a 3x raise from a short stack, but the betting scheme on the flop simply does not - same thing goes for hands like AJ,ATs or A9s. Since you seem to be begging for a call on the flop and turn, I would generally assume that you either flat called pre-flop w/ AA so you could trap later on, OR you made a questionable flat call w/ 4's - either way you hit a set. QQ I feel is the least likely holding since that usually requires a re-raise pre-flop. The only other hand that I could even conceive of betting in this fashion is a pair w/ a flush draw, but that only leaves K4s,K5s,J4s,J5s and unless you are a total maniac on a large stack, those can safely be ruled out.

Having that said, this is a really difficult hand to get away from. Against many players, I would have to go broke here. However, against a reasonably TAG player I could dump this hand and still have more than 10xBB and be able to continue.

[jayheaps]

given his stack size, i would have reraised all in. i would have put him on a pair and a flush draw.

[nightlyraver]

Not possible to put him on a pair and flush draw. The two high cards were 2-suited and the non-suited card on the flop was a 4. He could only have K4s or J4s to be on a pair and flush draw and that's just not likely at all unless the player is a maniac. Also, big stacks w/ a pair and a flush draw would not be raising small increments since it would not make the other guy have to make a decision - player seems to just want to get more money in the pot, not make Josh fold.

[zaxx19]

LOL bashing Arieh .....He's 8x the player Raymer is you can take that too the bank and deposit it...

Wait someone posts a hand were Raymer over plays AQ preflop after a raise then moves in post flop with tpQK and you guys have 50 excuses mainly (he was "playing the player" lol). Arieh gets beat with top 2 pair against a small concealed set and its postable...whatta a joke. This is how people get busted get over it. They catch excellent hands and cant get away from them period.Thats why its worth it too flat call with baby pairs. Cut and dry hand.

[Prime Time]

I used the other line, but thats a good 1 also.
Should have put that in the chat box with him. LOL
Next time I will.

[MLG]

There is no way that anybody who has posted in this thread is remotely qualified to determine who is better. We simply haven't seen enough actual play from them. Although Greg has been kind enough to give us a lot of insight as to how he plays, its impossible to determine their relative skill levels from what we know.

If you watched 1 out per inning could you tell me whether Barry Bonds was better than Gary Sheffield? I doubt it. Even if the answer is obvious we wouldnt have enough info to judge.

[Prime Time]

FWIW,
Spoke to Josh last night about the hand.
He thought I played it correctly.
Josh also said "It's a hand that you just have to go broke on"

Later

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]


that hand played itself.

[/ QUOTE ]

only questionable thing is the pre-flop call with 44. you'll flop a set 1/8.5. 8.5 * 500 = 4250, and he had ~5600 before the raise (plus the 300 in blind money). you're not going to win the pot very often if you don't flop a set or an OESD. so you need to get his stack very consistently when you flop the set, and to never flop the set and wind up losing.

i'd say around 7500 would be my minimum stack to call there.

[edpsu92]

Could you please elaborate on what you are saying? I do not understand.

[Prime Time]

[ QUOTE ]
There is no way that anybody who has posted in this thread is remotely qualified to determine who is better. We simply haven't seen enough actual play from them. Although Greg has been kind enough to give us a lot of insight as to how he plays, its impossible to determine their relative skill levels from what we know.

If you watched 1 out per inning could you tell me whether Barry Bonds was better than Gary Sheffield? I doubt it. Even if the answer is obvious we wouldnt have enough info to judge.

[/ QUOTE ]

Totaly correct.
Also Josh has a pretty impressive resume of World series and WPT events.
Do the naysayers discount the data.
Where I come from, I let the data speak for itself.

2004 final table results
Tournament / Event Date Place Points Winnings
2004 Borgata Poker Open
No-Limit Hold'em Final Day 9/22/04 3 960 $286,900
2004 35th Annual World Series of Poker
No-Limit Hold'em World Championship Final Day 5/28/04 3 1,280 $2,500,000
2004 L.A. Poker Classic
Seven Card Stud High-Low 8/OB Final Day 2/19/04 5 100 $7,290

[Goodie54]

Have you played with Raymer, Zaxx? Have you played with Arieh? I've played with both and can't really say who is better, they both are very skilled and have similar playing styles.

To say that Arieh is 8 times better than Raymer is clearly ridiculous and foolish.

Where do you get these opoinions from, Zax? Seriously.

Peace

Goodie

[zaxx19]

Lets round out that list...Brunson, havent played with him, Cloutier, havent played with him, Negreanu,nope havent sat with him, Juanda, Hey I actually sat with guy once!!! I also havent caught Greg Maddux. Oh and I never played pitch and catch with Joe Montana. Can I make judgements on the relative skill level of Montana or Maddux?? Yes I believe I can reasonably speculate on how good they are. Is it a definitive ranking?? Nope certainly not.(I assert there is no such thing thing as a "definitive" ranking in anything one glance at the BCS system shows how hard it is to judge relative skill between 2 entities) The point is while it is great that poker allows one accesibilty to the "stars of the game" I wouldnt say that an individual has no right to draw comnclusion on said players without playing with them. Personally I believe Arieh is the more accomplished of the two. I also believe results before and after the 2004 WSOP point to this being the case; as did Raymer's play in a 2 million dollar freeroll(seems like alot of incentive to bring his A game)with the top players in the world. Raymer played a fearlessly aggresive, and furious WSOP. He also got alot of hands and won more than his share of races. He deserved to win the WSOP bc he played a style that allowed him to win; and congratulagions to him on the title. ON the other hand, Arieh has derived the better part of his living from poker for a decade now and has consistently played at a worldclass level. Raymer has been an accomplished and very skilled amateur for a long time and won the biggest most heralded poker tournament. Based on those two things you MAY draw conclusions on the relative level of the two or you may choose not to. I chose the former.

[Cleveland Guy]

HOW DID YOU NOT CHECK IN THE DARK HERE?????????????????


Okay, on a serious note - I don't know if I liked the call with 44. This is not a great hand, and given that Arieh's bet came from a steal position, he could be betting with any 2 cards that are both higher than 4.

if the flop comes T 9 5 - is this a fold?

Obviously I don't know the table dynamics, or how far from the bubble you are, but I like to push around my big stack a bit.

I might do a re-raise here, and bet any raggedy flop.

[Goodie54]

Your conclusions seem valid at first glance. I'll discredit them one by one.

The analogy to Baseball and Football are ridiculous. It has been discussed endlessly on this site that we can't really form any worthwhile conclutions because when we are watching on TV we only see a very small portion of the hands in question. When you watch a certain pitcher's performance on the mound, you can see his entire outing, from start to finish. You don't have to catch him to do that. It's on TV. Unfortunatly, you DO have to play with a poker player to get a full sense of how he plays. You have not with either player, so your oponion is invalid.

I'll go further, though. Did you ever think that the reason you haven't seen Fossilman's name at the top of the leaderboard of a lot of these tournaments is because he doesn't play in them? Novel idea, huh? He has not been a professional poker player (unlike Josh) and niether I nor you can make a judgement as to whether or not he could make a living playing poker. I choose to believe he could because I've watched him played and played with him many times.

How is it that you can make a judgement on results when one player has played in most large tournaments all around the world for the past several years and one that has not.

That's like trying to compare Dan Marino's Super Bowl record to Joe Montana's Super Bowl Record.

Peace

Goodie

[zaxx19]

Wow GOODIE I can tell you are are really working hard on your prose there buddy....Yikes ...

I'm becoming more and more thankful of the 1st class education my parents paid so dearly for.

A person doesn't discredit anothers assertions....evidence he presents may or may not do this but a person does not.

Raymer's lucrative law career(110k a yr app) probably seemed like a better/more stable option than a promising poker one. I mean he hasnt even quit law with the 5 million...ERRRR HE HAS. So apparently he didnt enjoy patent law THAT much. If you cant see where this is going further discussions probably aren't necessary...

[MLG]

Somebody who rights barely deicpherable posts in all caps has no place commenting on others' prose.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Somebody who rights barely deicpherable posts in all caps has no place commenting on others' prose.

[/ QUOTE ]

WAT THE FACK ARE U TALKIN ABOUT!! U DONKEY!

[zaxx19]

There is a clear difference between being sloppy and not understanding the meaning of words, context and phrasing in the English language.

If I wanted to be an anal prick I would have pointed out the numerous spelling errors in the following posts, quite obviously I didnt.

[MLG]

of course there is. but when you are guilty of the former people have no way of assessing your ability at the latter. Consequently, if you are intentionally sloppy you should not comment on others mistake in that area. I can't believe you actually sucked me into this debate zaxx. I'll grant you, that as an agitator you have a high degree of skill.

[zaxx19]

en ingles por favor
Anglais, si vous plait
al sawa english salam(phonetic)

I hope whichever language happens to be your first is covered here.

[SossMan]

why is phonetic not spelled phonetically?

[MLG]

for somebody who was railing on others for not understanding the english language, you seem befuddled rather easily. my post made sense, but if you want it dumbed down here we go. if you want to be sloppy nobody can know whether you understand the english language, and therefore you shouldnt comment on how others use it.

[zaxx19]

I do not know but i will consult the worlds foremost expert in such matters -- THE PHILLY FONETIC..OR WAS THAT PHONETIC

P.S. befuddled lol lol man this is getting pretty funny reminds me of english papers in 8th grade- look I can use polysyllabic adjectives in awkward usages also yeahhhh

That man befuddled that other man???

no usually more like:

The man appeared befuddled whilst reviewing his credit card bill.

There is nothing more dangerous in this world than an idiot with a thesaurus. One of my professors told my class that once. Now i see what he meant.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I do not know but i will consult the worlds foremost expert in such matters -- THE PHILLY FONETIC..OR WAS THAT PHONETIC

P.S. befuddled lol lol man this is getting pretty funny reminds me of english papers in 8th grade- look I can use polysyllabic adjectives in awkward usages also yeahhhh

That man befuddled that other man???

no usually more like:

The man appeared befuddled whilst reviewing his credit card bill.



[/ QUOTE ]

purple monkey horseshoe trailer

[Jim T]

Grow up!

I can see why you are so infatuated with Arrieh.

[mojorisin24]

Arieh must have found himself cursing the Ghost of David Williams after that one

[Prime Time]

[ QUOTE ]
HOW DID YOU NOT CHECK IN THE DARK HERE?????????????????


Okay, on a serious note - I don't know if I liked the call with 44. This is not a great hand, and given that Arieh's bet came from a steal position, he could be betting with any 2 cards that are both higher than 4.

if the flop comes T 9 5 - is this a fold?

Obviously I don't know the table dynamics, or how far from the bubble you are, but I like to push around my big stack a bit.

I might do a re-raise here, and bet any raggedy flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, a raggy flop can be a stop n go.
But for the flop I got, it was played as well as could be played because the chips all got into the center.
Mission accomplished.

[Prime Time]

What he is saying, is that even if I hit my set, does Josh have enough chips so even if I bust him, that it is worth it. I have to call 500 chips to have a shot at about 6K.
Not to mention that if I hit, he might be able to get away from his hand.

[Goodie54]

As for the prose, we're having a POKER argument here, Zaxx. Clearly you have no class and have resorted to insignificant and pointless insults. But just to show that nothing you say has been correct to this point - although it is the evidence that discredits the assersions, if this evidence comes in the form of an idea ariving out of a certain individuals head, that evidence is owned by that person. Therefore, that person discredited the assertion.

That came from the education that I paid for. I didn't mouch of my parents like others did. Good try, though.

As for your point, can we even call it that when it's so incredibly incorrect?

I don't know if your married or not. I don't know if you have children or not. Surely you can see how it would be infinitely more difficult to pursue a career in poker when you don't have 2 million dollars behind you AND you have a fairly lucrative GAURANTEED paycheck. Clearly you can see how this in no way reflects upon how skilled of a player Greg is and how his skill relates to Josh. Your parents must have paid for enough education for you to see that, correct?

Now that this point is discredited, please tell me you have something else to back up your original statement.

Peace

Goodie