Foxwoods 10K hand [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

j0wlev

11-27-2004, 06:10 AM

I think Stan has a smaller set. You fail to mention if Stan calls outta early limp, the blinds, the button, or middle limp.

Your friend made a big sized pre-flop raise, 300 to go with only 200 in the pot when he opened it. My guess here is Stan thinks 2 things big pair or steal. This merits his 33 holding and hitting a set, going on the implied odds and deep money.

When I hit my set of 8s I would have probably moved in on Stan when he raised, not letting him draw to that flush and if he thinks of you as LAG player, you'll get a call from middle set which is a huge underdog.

If you were not push em in on this flop, I see a raise of 4800-6000 a little better defining of your hand. It says to him you have an overpair because it looks like your trying to shut him out and he'll most definately call. The 3k raise is a little over a min raise and looks like you want action on it. /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Apathy

11-27-2004, 06:25 AM

I really do not like smooth calling here because if stan does have another set a diamond on the turn might kill your action. Also if stan has an overpair here he might not get away from it if friend is an aggresive player, once again smooth calling kills you action if a diamond falls. I would reraise to around 4-5000 hoping stan puts you on 99-AA.

-CPJ

zaxx19

11-27-2004, 10:28 AM

Im just curious, but do "smaller" or "bigger" sets really enter peoples reads at times?? They seem so rare that I almost discount them on a flop unless in a raised one its an ace. Maybe im just not advanced enough to see these situations but ive only flopped set under set maybe 7 times in perhaps 10000 hands or something.

pshreck

11-27-2004, 01:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Im just curious, but do "smaller" or "bigger" sets really enter peoples reads at times?? They seem so rare that I almost discount them on a flop unless in a raised one its an ace. Maybe im just not advanced enough to see these situations but ive only flopped set under set maybe 7 times in perhaps 10000 hands or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Zaxx, you are probably used to watching WSOP hands where every hand is for all of someones chips, and usually someone is bluffing or doesn't have a great hand.

In the 10k events, when all of a sudden two players wake up and start committing large %'s of their stack.... you can't assume its an SNG or some online tourney. Considering the BB could probably easily fold hands like 99 or 1010 at this point, you have to assume he has something better. Considering he called a raise, 83,82, and 23 are unlikely (but possible). He may have smooth called with QQ-AA to be tricky, but I think thats about just as likely as him flopping a lower set. A hand like 22 or 33 is very possible, and goes along with how he is playing the hand perfectly.

While set over set doesn't happen often, it doesn't mean you should ignore the possibility when the facts are highly suggesting it.

zaxx19

11-27-2004, 02:18 PM

Hey, nice job reading.

I said PLAY hands, not watching hands on TV.

pshreck

11-27-2004, 02:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hey, nice job reading.

I said PLAY hands, not watching hands on TV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am saying that you most likely haven't played any hands in 10k buy in events, and that comparing this to your small buy-in MTT's isn't a great comparison.

I think that in Party MTT's, all of a sudden a player who has been playing for two hours will committ all of his chips with TPTK out of nowhere, despite great aggressiveness from a tight player. I think that in the 10K events, for the most part, chips don't fly back and forth in these stages unless both players have a big hand.

Set under set simply does happen, and there are times when you can get a read on it and play accordingly to that read. This is one of those situations where it is much more likely considering the rag board. It certainly does not guarantee there is a lower set... he COULD be on a bluff. I'm just telling you maybe you should give the read more credit, considering the board.

BK_

11-27-2004, 02:40 PM

read foxwoodfiends post in the mid-high nl forum for a situation where a guy with top boat legitametly felt his hand was vulnerable to a c/r from rivered quads

cero_z

11-27-2004, 05:23 PM

Hi Hiatus,

This is a pretty interesting hand. The pre-flop raise seems huge to me--I wonder if that colored the reaction from Stan?

If this took place at my table at this stage, the caller in the BB (Stan in this case) would've had a big pair for sure. He probably would also put the raiser on a very good hand, and thus be trapping. So, I wouldn't fear a flush draw at all (well, maybe just a little), and would definitely just call the check-raise with top set, hoping to get him for most of his chips if a harmless-looking card came off on the turn. If you re-raise the flop, you only get paid by AA (maybe) and a set, which will usually pay you off no matter what. This possibility of Stan getting trapped with an overpair is all set up by the large open-raise.

LLWesMan

11-28-2004, 06:21 AM

Results?

SossMan

11-28-2004, 10:05 AM

I've got to go with zaxx on this one. Another set is probably pretty unlikely based on probability. There is so much else that Stan could have that he's raising this ragged flop with vs. a preflop raiser. A slowplayed big pair is my best guess. Even just AK or AQ making a stab at the pot. A couple of diamonds could be played this way (though again, statistically unlikely).

I think that smooth calling and raising his turn bet is the best line here. As another poster pointed out, a diamond may kill your action or even make you lose, but I'm willing to take that chance to disguise my hand a little more. A diamond will only come off about 1 time in 5 anyway on the turn and he still may bet it if he has a set or an overpair that includes a diamond.

-sossman

PS Zaxx...if you've had set over set 7 times in 10,000 hands, that's a lot. I've been playing for 5 years and can count the number of times I've been on the wrong end of set over set on one hand.

knifeandfork

11-28-2004, 10:28 AM

if i am correct doesnt stan goldstein have reputation as a tighty? he is not getting away from set over set on this hand, but he could get away from a lot of over pairs. i dont hink reraising on the flop is bad just make it a little bigger 4200 ish. but then you get closer to pot committed issues where you dont want him to realize you will go to the felt just yet. still i think smooth call or raise a bit more depending on what/how many hands youve been playing and how far you have taken them. results would be interesting but ill throw a *guess* out there that stan folded an over pair smaller than QQ

grandgnu

11-28-2004, 10:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a hand a friend played, I though it was interesting.

Blinds 25-50 no ante, Friends Stack 13K, Opponents Stack 14K.

Folded to friend in Cut-off with 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gif, he raises to 300. The Big Blind (Stan Goldstein, older tourney pro) calls.

Flop is 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Stan checks, friend BETS 300, Stan RAISES to 1200 total, Friend RAISES to 3000 total. What do you think so far? Was 3000 the right number? Anyone just call? Push? Make a different sized raise? Results and more questions later...

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm......this IS a fun hand. Alright, he called the 6x the BB raise from your friend so you've got a pot of 600 roughly?

Your opponent then check-raises you on the flop bringing the pot total to 2100.

I think I would have pushed here instead of just re-raising to 3000 total. Reasons for this:

1. If your opponent holds something like A/K, A/Q, A/J of diamonds you want to make him go away instead of outdrawing you. His bet may have been a semi-bluff to move your friend off his hand.

2. If Stan does hold an overpair that is pretty strong (Q/Q or higher) or he flopped a set, your friend will likely get action on his set and be a huge favorite to win the hand.

Can't wait to see the results.

SossMan

11-28-2004, 10:46 AM

Why on earth would you want someone w/ AdKd to fold to your all in? You would be a 3:1 favorite and he would be making a big mistake to call.

The only reason that I could see an all in as a good play is if you think that your opponent will put you on a diamond draw w/ the big overbet. Otherwise, you let overpairs off way too easy. That would be such a waste.

grandgnu

11-28-2004, 10:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why on earth would you want someone w/ AdKd to fold to your all in? You would be a 3:1 favorite and he would be making a big mistake to call.

The only reason that I could see an all in as a good play is if you think that your opponent will put you on a diamond draw w/ the big overbet. Otherwise, you let overpairs off way too easy. That would be such a waste.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno man, I just hate being outdrawn, ya know? With two cards to come it's not that hard for your opponent to pick up their diamond and bust your set. This isn't a cash money game, this is a tournament, where one mistake can cost you everything.

If the diamond does come on the turn or the river do you really want to let go of your set then?

Like I said, I'd want to push the drawing hand out and win the pot right there instead of risk losing it by an outdraw.

And I expect he'd call with a strong overpair or another set, so you're likely going to win if that's the case.

Just out of curiousity, what would you recommend?

SossMan

11-28-2004, 11:09 AM

wanting your oppoent to fold when you are 3:1 favorite and he's getting about 1.2:1 for his whole stack is crazy. This is early in the tournament where cashEV and chipEV have not started to diverge yet. You really cannot be afraid to put all your chips in with the nuts if you think you will be called by a 3:1 dog.

I doubt he goes broke on an overpair there, too. unless he has specifically AA, I can't imagine him putting any more money in on that flop if you were to raise.

As i said before, against this guy, I like the smooth call and raise all in on the turn if he bets. I would make a pot sized bet on the turn if he checks to me (diamond or not).

grandgnu

11-28-2004, 11:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
wanting your oppoent to fold when you are 3:1 favorite and he's getting about 1.2:1 for his whole stack is crazy. This is early in the tournament where cashEV and chipEV have not started to diverge yet. You really cannot be afraid to put all your chips in with the nuts if you think you will be called by a 3:1 dog.

I doubt he goes broke on an overpair there, too. unless he has specifically AA, I can't imagine him putting any more money in on that flop if you were to raise.

As i said before, against this guy, I like the smooth call and raise all in on the turn if he bets. I would make a pot sized bet on the turn if he checks to me (diamond or not).

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're suggesting against what I would do and what the actual player did (i.e. moving all-in or re-raising the check-raise)?

You would just call the check-raise and then bet out on the turn, regardless of whether a diamond came or not, if I understand correctly.

So if the diamond does come on the turn and you bet out and get re-raised again (or, I think in this situation his opponent was first to act so what if he bets after the diamond comes out, do you re-raise against the possible flush?)

Again, I think you're setitng yourself up for disaster if the diamond comes on the turn. Let's look at the possibilities:

1. OPPONENT HAS OVERPAIR: They are first to act and the diamond falls on the turn and they bet out. You still might figure that they held A/? of diamonds and have outdrawn you, and you'll fold the best hand. Their overpair might also include a strong flush draw to the river if that diamond comes on the turn and they may wind up being pot-commited if you re-raise them.

2. OPPONENT HAS A LESSER SET: They'll act first and bet out with the diamond on the turn, and again you're left wondering what to do, and may fold the best hand.

3. OPPONENT HAS FLUSH: They may bet their flush, they may check it and check-raise you again. Now you become the underdog.

The key here is that you have position as far as acting last, but your opponent has position in the sense that they may be able to push your set out if the turn comes a diamond and they bet out.

I don't see why you'd want to give them that opportunity to bluff you out or actually outdraw your hand. If they have the flush draw they'll likely fold after your all-in raise to their check-raise.

And if they have an overpair they might call or they might fold, depending how strong that overpair is. And if they flopped a set you can bet your bottom dollar they're going to call you and have one out to beat you.

In a cash game I can see your play, but in a tournament I still prefer my push.

SossMan

11-28-2004, 11:59 AM

where did I say I would fold if a diamond came on the turn?

in order for a diamond draw to beat me...

A) 8/45 cards (about 18%) are non-pair the board diamond cards. So we are talking about a sitution that happens less than 1 in 5 times.

B) he has to have exactly two diamonds. There are a multitude of hands that he could have that he's reraising a preflop raiser on a raggedy board.

C) the board can't pair on the river, too.

I'm willing to take the chance that all three of these things will not be true by the end of the hand in order to disguise my holdings and give him some rope to hang himself on the turn.

The fact that you think that my play is right in a cash game, but wrong in a tourney underscores the fact that you aren't up to date on tourney theory re: chipEV vs. cashEV early in the tournament.

hint: they're the same

the point is that while a free card might give my opponent the best hand, it's a risk i'm willing to take in order to extract the maximum value for this wonderful situation.

-SossMan

grandgnu

11-28-2004, 12:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
where did I say I would fold if a diamond came on the turn?

in order for a diamond draw to beat me...

A) 8/45 cards (about 18%) are non-pair the board diamond cards. So we are talking about a sitution that happens less than 1 in 5 times.

B) he has to have exactly two diamonds. There are a multitude of hands that he could have that he's reraising a preflop raiser on a raggedy board.

C) the board can't pair on the river, too.

I'm willing to take the chance that all three of these things will not be true by the end of the hand in order to disguise my holdings and give him some rope to hang himself on the turn.

The fact that you think that my play is right in a cash game, but wrong in a tourney underscores the fact that you aren't up to date on tourney theory re: chipEV vs. cashEV early in the tournament.

hint: they're the same

the point is that while a free card might give my opponent the best hand, it's a risk i'm willing to take in order to extract the maximum value for this wonderful situation.

-SossMan

[/ QUOTE ]

You make great points and I'm certain you understand game theory better than I do. Still......(puts on flame retardant suit) I believe extracting maximum value is most important in cash games while staying alive is most important in a tournament (unless there's a rebuy available, then the way you play this could change)

Also, if a diamond comes on the turn and your opponent bets out again, what do you do?

Or, if he checks and you bet and he check-raises ya on the diamond turn, what do you do?

Lurshy

11-28-2004, 12:23 PM

I have no problem with the play so far. Stan can easily put your friend on an overpair, and call here with a big overpair, or come back over-the-top with a smaller set.

Other plays such as a smooth call, or larger raise work as well in certain circumstances, but there is nothing fundamentally wrong with your friend's play that I see. JMHO

HiatusOver

11-29-2004, 01:38 PM

Good discussion so far guys, I would really love to get more people to sound in on this one, because it seems like no conclusion has come and I think this situation comes up a lot early in a MTT.

Well the next part of the hand is Stan pushed in after my friend raised to 3000, my friend obviously called...what is Stans hand? And did my friend play the flop right?

SossMan

11-29-2004, 02:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well the next part of the hand is Stan pushed in after my friend raised to 3000, my friend obviously called...what is Stans hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

there are either 5 8's in the deck, your friend busted (our doubled up off of) Stan, or Stan hit a 1 outer.

SossMan

11-29-2004, 02:31 PM

I believe extracting maximum value is most important in cash games while staying alive is most important in a tournament (unless there's a rebuy available, then the way you play this could change)

this is where you are clearly wrong (at least when you are far from the money).

Use the search feature...there have been many, many posts on this topic. Greg (fossilman) has a bunch of posts on this. Paul Phillips has also commented extensively on this topic. Look for posts by Fnurt, La Brujita, Che, MLG, and Cferejohn as they have argued it more elegantly than I.

when you are far from the money, for all intents and purposes chipEV = cashEV. So, giving up equity in search of survival is equatable to charity.

-SossMan

sdplayerb

11-29-2004, 02:43 PM

Stan has a set of 3s or 2s, a strfl draw or AK fl draw.

And I agree with Sossman, I would have called Stan's reraise.
Due to Stan's pushin, his line was the best, but was a very unique flop given what appears to be the hands Stan has...but usually Sossman's flat call I believe is the best play.

SossMan

11-29-2004, 02:59 PM

I kind of doubt Stan put in the 3rd raise w/ out a set since he has to fear AA/KK, so I don't think he can think his overcard outs are any good. Maybe w/ Ad5d or Ad4d. I really think he has a set there, though.

MLG

11-29-2004, 03:25 PM

Your telling me our hero wouldnt play 99-QQ the same way? I could very easily see our opponenet having A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifK /images/graemlins/diamond.gif here. Maybe even AQ.

cero_z

11-30-2004, 05:45 AM

Hi Sossman,

[ QUOTE ]
I kind of doubt Stan put in the 3rd raise w/ out a set since he has to fear AA/KK,

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't, if he has AA himself. But, to me, pushing in without a set is nuts here, unless your opponent is a fool. I think he has to have a set, or he thinks the Hero is an idiot who'll call with KK.

Assuming Stan has 33 or 22, what do people think about calling 300 pre-flop in a heads up situation? At first glance, I thought it would be too hard to get paid off appropriately, but I guess it's reasonable to assume you're gonna make 2400 to 3000 post-flop with a set. Is this an easy call pre-flop for you, Sossman, even if your opponent plays well?

SossMan

11-30-2004, 01:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your telling me our hero wouldnt play 99-QQ the same way? I could very easily see our opponenet having A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifK /images/graemlins/diamond.gif here. Maybe even AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think most players would make the non-allin rereraise with 99-QQ. I suppose he could have made that play, but hero sure is screaming set/AA/KK.
I would be shocked if Stan didn't have a set or AA.

SossMan

11-30-2004, 01:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming Stan has 33 or 22, what do people think about calling 300 pre-flop in a heads up situation? At first glance, I thought it would be too hard to get paid off appropriately, but I guess it's reasonable to assume you're gonna make 2400 to 3000 post-flop with a set. Is this an easy call pre-flop for you, Sossman, even if your opponent plays well?

[/ QUOTE ]

standard deep stacked play, IMO. I would call there just about every time given the stack sizes.

MLG

11-30-2004, 01:29 PM

your right, I had the betting order screwed up in my head.

sdplayerb

12-01-2004, 04:00 AM

around 2% of your chips, easy call.
With a 6x raise, you have to figure the guy is more likely to have a big hand here, maybe not AA, but QQ-99, AK, AQ (although i would raise a decent size with AA sometimes).

I do think 45s is still a third possibility behind 33 and 22.
I don't even see AA here as the stacks were too deep to flat call, in my opinion. I think AKs, maybe AQs are the 4th and 5th possibilities..i see no others.

Not really sure why i bother anymore, Sossman and i always seem to agree, and he states it first.
I'm waiting for us to disagree, then it gets fun. I think we did on the hands you posted that your student played.

zaxx19

12-01-2004, 08:39 AM

10% rule for calling an aggressive raiser with mini pairs early in a tourney to me thats basic they are simply the best hands too bust aggressive players with.

HiatusOver

12-01-2004, 10:50 AM

OK...So Stan Pushed my friend called...Stan Rolled over A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif for the flush draw, gut-shot straight draw and possible overcard out. My friend is convinced he should have pushed but I still dont really think so. What about Stan's play? I can't kill it really, his draw is pretty monster and if he thought my friend would lay down 99-QQ (which my friend said he would have considered with all of them) then the play becomes pretty solid. As a side note, this is very second hand but I guess Jennifer Harmon was at the table and told my friend that she thought he needed to push here in this situation.

grandgnu

12-01-2004, 01:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
OK...So Stan Pushed my friend called...Stan Rolled over A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif for the flush draw, gut-shot straight draw and possible overcard out. My friend is convinced he should have pushed but I still dont really think so. What about Stan's play? I can't kill it really, his draw is pretty monster and if he thought my friend would lay down 99-QQ (which my friend said he would have considered with all of them) then the play becomes pretty solid. As a side note, this is very second hand but I guess Jennifer Harmon was at the table and told my friend that she thought he needed to push here in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if Jennifer Harmon agreed with me going for the push, how can I be wrong? w00t!

I recommended the push to try and get draws like that out of there. Your friends opponent had a weaker pre-flop holding than I expected, but a much stronger draw (not just the flush but the straight draw as well) than I had figured.

Even with a push your friends foe might have called anyway. But I still would've pushed.

SossMan

12-01-2004, 01:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
OK...So Stan Pushed my friend called...Stan Rolled over A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif for the flush draw, gut-shot straight draw and possible overcard out. My friend is convinced he should have pushed but I still dont really think so. What about Stan's play? I can't kill it really, his draw is pretty monster and if he thought my friend would lay down 99-QQ (which my friend said he would have considered with all of them) then the play becomes pretty solid. As a side note, this is very second hand but I guess Jennifer Harmon was at the table and told my friend that she thought he needed to push here in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stan's play reeks. I don't know many players who would play QQ-99 like that (putting in a bet, and a non-allin reraise w/ a minor overpair on ragged flop). Those are the hands that he's barely ahead of that he wouldn't mind folding out.
If I were stan, I would have flat called when it was 3k and check folded if I missed the turn. He's got to fear a set there with that betting pattern. Like 80%+ of the time.

Re: J.Harmon - I wonder if she said that the hero should have pushed before or after Stan sucked out on him... my guess is after.

HiatusOver

12-01-2004, 05:37 PM

Harmon suggested to just call the flop and push if Stan bets a non diamond on the turn. I am not sure what the plan would be if a diamond comes on the turn though...any thoughs? Also if a non-diamond turn card comes and stan now checks, what do we do?

sdplayerb

12-01-2004, 06:11 PM

First, I think Stan played the flop great..i'll get to that in a moment.
Numerous of us, including me, said we gathered Stan most likely had an underset. But now that doesn't really make sense to me. With the stacks that deep I would expect him to lead out here expecting a raise to build a really big pot.
A checkraise is asking for the hand to be finished quickly, and Stan would want to win more than 5-600 more on this flop, had he had 33 or 22 (he really can't expect to be up against 88).
So I think semi-bluffing on a flush draw becomes a lot more likely here, as he does want the hand over.

Ok, so Stan goes for the semi-bluff checkraise and gets reraised. So what does what would you think you are up against given the preflop raise and the action?
I'd say AA-99, with it more likely being KK-TT based on his having an A, and 99 not being that strong (i do think the preflop raise was a bit strong for 88 and would say the same for 99).
Now if Stan pushes in where is he:
Against any hand from 99-KK he is both ahead and has to expect his opponent to definitely fold QQ-99, this is a $10K event. He should fold KK and AA as well.
There really are only two hands his opponent could consider calling with, AA (which he has about a 46% chance to beat), and 88, which you just can't expect your opponent to have..yes he had it, but it is very unlikely in the group of hands here.
Against KK-TT this is the correct move between:
1. Being ahead, albeit slightly
2. The money in the pot
3. Folding equity, which should be very high (this is the main point to the equation).

Now, from the set of 8s side, I did say flatcall originally. Since my opponent is a pro and checkraised in this deep stack situation, I really am going to discount a set of 2s or 3s and think most likely he is on a semi-bluff..maybe on a pair of Tens or 9s (maybe Js)...but he is likely going to shutdown at this point if not on a flushdraw.
Thus I do think it is right to make a reraise, and a bigger one than what was made...probably make it 4500-5000.

If he calls and it hits I am shutting down..it is still likely he will try to slowplay the turn or underbet it giving me fullhouse outs or a free shot at it.

Of course I read it and had time to think about it and it still took me this long to realize the flush draw was most likely (but i did think 45s was one of the most likelies). And it is tougher in your first huge huge event.

I do think Stan played it fantastically. He couldn't expect to be behind, got to strike fear in the heart of the other guy unless he had 88 (i guess or 33/22, but unlikely). He was playing to win.

Incredibly interesting hand.

SD

SossMan

12-01-2004, 06:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Harmon suggested to just call the flop and push if Stan bets a non diamond on the turn. I am not sure what the plan would be if a diamond comes on the turn though...any thoughs? Also if a non-diamond turn card comes and stan now checks, what do we do?

[/ QUOTE ]

read the entire discussion we just had.

I like that Harmon agreed w/ me about smooth calling and pushing on a nondiamond turn card....she play goooood.

SossMan

12-01-2004, 06:31 PM

when the hero puts in the 3rd non-allin bet on the flop, you really have to start fearing a set. You have zero (well, very, very little) folding equity from a set. You don't have draw equity vs. a set either.

After the hero raises to 3000, i think that eliminates QQ-99. Hero has specifically KK/AA/set. He's only a favorite vs. exactly KK.
I don't like his play at all.

sdplayerb

12-01-2004, 07:20 PM

Sweet, we are disagreeing, now we get to learn something (one or both of us, i'm not saying i am definitely right).
So we both agree that chip equity means little here and what is the most +ev move.

Not it becomes a math discussion. First what are the range of hands that the 3K is made with. I am willing to narrow it down from what I said, but I think QQ should be included, yet considered less likely than AA or KK.
(On a side note, what is really the difference here between the two? Not like if you have QQ you are worried about KK, they are practically the same.)

Now what do we consider the likelihood of his holdings? Due to the A, KK is twice as likely as AA. Even though he did have the 88, I do find it less likely to be the hand due to the 6x raise, and there is also the good chance he would not rereraise with it (as you advocate, and I used to advocate).
So I put it at AA: 25% KK: 50% QQ and 88 both at 12.5%
I do think there could be changes, but the differences were not huge (i'd be willing to email anybody my model).

Now the likelihood of his now calling an allin by Stan.
This is tough. I went with:
AA: 50% KK and QQ: 10% 88: 100%

Additionally Stan started at 14K and opp at 13K, but to be conservative I viewed Stan losing as being the same as being broke since it is almost impossible to cash if at 1K.

So if there is a call and Stan wins he has 27,025. Loses 0. If there is a fold then $18,825

I compute a 31% of there being a call.
And if there is a call, Stan wins 42% of the time. (this drops to 40% if KK and QQ fold 100%, but his EV actually goes up then).

This plays comes out to his ending up with 16,518.

I think you are better at computing the alternate play of his flat calling (obviously he is not folding here).

If he hits his flush, he can't expect to extract more than around 4K more. This is what I hate about flush draws, it is just so obvious when you hit them. Plus it could be the 2d, in which case he busts (but he doesn't know that). The best card is a non-diamond 5.
Of course his hitting his diamond or 5 happens just over 25% of the time on the turn..and he has to know he'll be shutout of trying to hit his river card if a blank comes.
This does jump to 32% if you include the A, and think it is good, which you would expect is quite likely. But still won't get much, if any, if the A hits and is good.

So by my estimates on a flat call there is 6,625 in the pot. Stan has 10,700. Let's say on average he gets another 4K if he hits (less likely if an A or diamond, but likely more if a 5, 4K is close, and I think aggressive). So 32% of the time he wins a pot of 10,625.
That works out to 14,091.

Tell me if my calcs are wrong, but i'm seeing 16,518 vs 14,091. Looks like a superior play to me.

Lesson to me is, if you flop a monster, which Stan did, you want to setup the betting so you get to put your opponent to a decision for all of his chips. He was very unlucky to be against 88, bust still is only a 2-1 dog.

Note: if i had AA: 25% KK: 50% 88: 25%, it still is 15,331.
At 1/3 accross (which is not the case), it is 14,312.

Very interested in what you and others think about that.
Of course Stan didn't have to go for a check raise in the first place, but that is another discussion, but I love his entire play.

SD

sdplayerb

12-02-2004, 02:04 PM

Come on now Sossman

SossMan

12-02-2004, 02:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Come on now Sossman

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually had a really long detailed response all typed up, but then my boss walked by and I tried to minimize the screen and accidentally closed it. ARRRGGG!

Short version:
I agree with your conclusions based on your assumptions. With that narrow range of hands, your math looks right, and there is more folding equity than I had anticipated.
However, I think you discount the underset too easily (many players would open raise preflop w/ any pair). In fact, it doesn't look like they are even in your calculation. IMO, they would only be slightly less common than 88 in that spot.

sdplayerb

12-02-2004, 03:13 PM

I had the same thought also, and actually added it to my model after.
If I were to use extremely conservative #s, I can make yours work.
AA: 20% KK: 40% 88,33,22: 40%
Chance to call
AA: 50% KK: 10$ set: 100%

then it becomes 14,043 vs 14,091

1. But I do think the sets are rated too high.
2. I don't think AA can call even 50% of the time..just making that 25% and it jumps to 14,360.

So it just becomes the likelihood in your mind. I think he'd be a pretty bad player to make a 6x raise with 33 or 22 (and don't like it for 88).
Plus I do think QQ is a possibility still.

So worst case it is -48
I can argue up to about 16,500 which is over +2,000 (even up to 17,375).

So, I still think it is a pretty clear push, and great play by Stan.

Actually I would probably say reraising to around 9K may be a little better as possibly a big push could smell like it isn't a set causing AA to call..but it shouldn't have a huge effect.
I just in general on semi-bluffs more advocate making a bet that completely pot committs you making it look like you are milking the guy..but that depends on the opponent.

SD

SossMan

12-02-2004, 03:39 PM

Ok...I'll buy it.

Another thing I forgot that I had in my erased response.

it was about your comment that there was no functional difference between having QQ and KK (and to a lessor degree JJ-99).
there is. QQ (and to a higher degree, JJ-99) is twice (or 3 or 4 times) more likely to have an overcard fall on the turn either a) making his hand 2nd best, b) killing his action or c) making a bad laydown
for that reason, AA/KK are typically way ahead/way behind type hands and can more easily be played slower (checking and calling or rasing smaller). The smaller the overpair, however, the more quickly you would like to end the hand on the flop.
It applies to this hand because it decreases the liklihood of QQ making this raise to 3000 (vs. flat calling and making sure the turn card doesn't look scary or pushing and ending the hand right there).

food for thought...the whole play is much closer in terms of EV than I thought, so it's probably close. When it's close, you can't really blame him for erring (maybe) on the side of aggression. Calling off with this hand would be much less forgivable.

-SM