oesfd against chip leader

[EnderW27]

Early in the tournament, you have ~650 chips with blinds at 15/30,

You're on the button with 78s and the chip leader, with ~2200, min raises right before you. You call. For whatever reason, blinds both fold.

Flop comes down 96s4c. Chip leader bets 200 into a 165 pot.

Assume by the bet he has an overpair. Assume also that he'll call your all-in.

What is the correct move?

[TheDrone]

First of all, I would not assume that the bet indicates an overpair. In fact, I think that overcards are more likely with that bet size. To answer your question directly, if he has something like KK you are a 56% favorite without the Ks and a 52% favorite with the Ks. If you don't mind pushing small edges, then push. But I really think you are a bigger favorite than that because of the likelihood of overcards and the folding equity that you have as a result. Therefore I would push knowing that I am more likely a 60%+ favorite.

[zephyr]

Against an overpair you're 50/50. If he'll call your reraise for sure then you're getting 1.28:1 on your money. So you by getting all of your chips in here you're going to have a +CEV. In real life, its very close, and I think that it depends on the relationship between CEV & $EV.

I don't see how you could possibly make the assumptions that you do though. There are many other hands besides an overpair that he could hold, and I think that some players will even fold to a reraise here.

[pshreck]

I would fold this preflop, as your are calling about 10% of your stack, and when precisely something like this happens, you are committing your whole stack on a draw (with most of the time you just forfeiting that 10% of your stack on the flop when you miss).

Absolutely push on the flop. You aren't completely positive he will call, but he will call most of the time. Your about 50/50 to most hands, and to some hands you'll actually be better than that (if he just has AK unsuited or a hand like that). The hand you are really afraid of is if he has two over flush cards, killing a lot of your outs.

Either way, push this, it is certainly +chip EV, as for +$$ EV, if you are deciding to play hands like this preflop (which again I think you should reconsider in SNG's), you should go with this for all your chips on the flop.

[EnderW27]

This early in the tournament, I don't think you can determine whether you should call a mini-raise or not based upon your stack size.

Any call is going to commit 4% of your stack. Any mini raise will commit 9%. If you had AK here and reraised, you're committing ~25% of your stack when ~40% of the time you won't hit anything. Look at the chip spewing potential there.

Certainly a case can be made that there isn't that much money in the pot pre-flop and this hand could use a little more multi-way action to make it +ev. But if you can't take a few flops with good hands early in the tournament in the best position possible...when can you do it?

[EnderW27]

I made the assumptions that I did based upon how I've seen him play and logical inferences I made from betting patterns.

I didn't think he would fold because:
a) he's the chip leader by a wide margin. He can afford to call me if he so chooses
b) more importantly, I've seen this guy over the last round and a half. Yeah, while that's not even close to a statistically accurate sample, he's become chip leader precisely because he refuses to be bullied out of a pot.

Based upon his betting pattern, I figured him for an overpair. He's first in and min-raises preflop, hoping to be cute and entice some callers. Then sees lots of draw possibilities on the flop and overbets it hoping to push me out. It's true. He could have merely overcards. But I think he'd have raised more preflop to try to buy the button.

The two bets together told me he first wanted callers and then didn't want callers. That, to me, says overpair.

[Avgard]

[ QUOTE ]
But if you can't take a few flops with good hands early in the tournament in the best position possible...when can you do it?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are in the best position, but, I would have to disagree with you regarding a good hand.

Suited connectors have there place. Great multi-way pot hands. Nice to get in cheap. This situation is different. You are going into a raised pot with the chip leader, who you feel will not fold a hand and you put him on a high pair because of his mini raise. If your read is correct, you have the best hand to crack his pair, but, have only about a 28% chance pre-flop of victory. If you have the read you say you do, it is an easy pre-flop fold.

Once you call the raise and see this flop, it should be about what you expect. Suited connectors after the flop are usually drawing hands. Other than some miracle quad or trip 9s, 8s or made straight or flush, you are usually left with a draw. You are left with a straight-flush draw which is great percentage wise.

So, my thoughts are if you are calling a raise by the chip leader and you are going to be the first caller, you should prepare to play the hand heads-up. 98s is not a great heads-up hand. Suited connectors lose value when heads-up or late in a SNG (when most hands are heads-up). Plus you read the chip leader as having a high pair, wasting 10% of your stack on the call is wasting bullets you will need later when you pick up a good hand.

[tiger7210]

I wouldn't assume an overpair here with his miniraise before the flop. I would think more on the lines of a smaller pair figuring with your small stack you may fold to that board without a made hand. It's also possible for overcards with the flush draw but unlikely since you have the 4 to the flush. I certainly wouldn't rule out him folding to your all in unless your read is he is reckless. You still have some folding equity here.

I think the decision is with 20x BB's do you feel like gambling. The only cards he turns over that make you a big dog are overcards to the flush where you could be almost drawing dead.

I think at this point where you're not in the money its a good spot to gamble and push.

[NotMitch]

[ QUOTE ]
This early in the tournament, I don't think you can determine whether you should call a mini-raise or not based upon your stack size.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think thats a really bad way to look at things.

[EnderW27]

A clarification here:

I didn't put him on a big pair because of his mini-raise preflop. I put him on a big pair because of the mini-raise preflop AND his overbet on the flop.

[pshreck]

Ender, you are looking too deeply into this hand.

By making your call preflop, you are almost saying that you dont have much of an edge over the other players, and that if you flop a good draw you will risk your chips on that draw.

Like another response said, you are actually looking for a draw... and will rarely flop a made hand. When a pot has been raised in front of you and its 10% of your stack to call ( I know you disagree) you should fold with a suited connector. The fact that it is a minraise doesnt matter, its not the strength of his hand that should concern you, its that you have to realize how often you are giving up 9% of your stack to a flop that will most likely miss. 4% is very different.

The flop is so simple. You chose to play the hand, flopped the best possible draw (remember you were LOOKING to flop a draw). Go with the hand now... as others have said you are actually likely to be the favorite anyways.

You really should avoid playing these suited connectors in SNGs outside of perfect circumstances. The blinds are too big for it to be a great play. This is not a perfect circumstance, and I think if you continue to make these plays you will forfeit more chips then you will make.

[willie24]

the correct move is certainly to go allin

[EnderW27]

You all have given me some food for thought about suited connectors. I'll keep it in mind for future reference.

So here's the situation again:
OESFD and the betting thus far makes me think the opponent has an overpair.
At this point I wasn't sure what to do. I knew a draw like that was a favorite against two players, but heads up I really had no clue. I figured I had to be hovering somewhere around 50/50, but on which side of it I couldn't have told you.

So I weighed my options. I could fold. A reasonable choice if I wasn't sure how good my odds were.
I could call. Bleh.
I could raise all-in. Again, I wasn't certain what my odds were of winning the hand and, more importantly, I didn't think I had any folding equity despite being able to put in another 400 chips. I saw how this guy played. He wasn't going to fold.

I ended up going all in. He called. He showed KK (with one of my suit) and I hit nothing.

I looked it up later on twodimes. As someone else has said, against that hand I was a 52% favorite and against other overpairs I'd be as much as a 56% favorite.
So it turns out that I made the right choice, but just barely. I think I made the right choice for the wrong reasons and it turned out badly.

I also think I should have folded. Folded instead of going all-in. This just wasn't the time nor the opponent to start exploiting small edges.

[pshreck]

If you think you should have folded that flop, then you have no business playing suited connectors in an SNG style blind structure.

[EnderW27]

If I can trust my read that
a) he has a higher pair and
b) he won't fold to an all-in,

then I'm at best a 56% favorite. In this particular case, I'm a 52% favorite. At the table, I had no clue how much of a favorite I was because, as I said, I didn't know the math. But in reality, it's certainly +ev to push here. Is it +$ev though? With that small an edge this early in the tournament...I really don't think so.

If I thought he'd have folded to an all-in, then yes. Pushing is correct. If I thought he might have mere overcards, then yes, pushing is correct. I did not believe either to be the case here and so I really think pushing all-in is not a +$ev play despite my small edge.