10/20 swings

[jfresh]

what's a "normal" swing during an average session at 10/20 SH? 50 BB? 100 BB (i hope not)? more specifically, being up or down (insert number here) BB is completely ho-hum.

how about over the course of a playing week of, say, 25 hours 4-tabling? What kind of BB deviation is normal? Are you "guaranteed" to swing at least 150 BB over the course of a week? 200 BB? not necessarily total net; for instance you are up 75 BB after 15 hours of play then down 75 BB after 25 hours.

i've been playing winning 5/10 SH for about 50k hands, but i know 10/20 is more aggressive, so i assume the swings won't be the same.

i just want to get a feel for the game, as i don't want to get too cocky, if i win 200 BB in the first week, nor do i want to feel like quitting poker if i lose 200 BB the first week.

[JRichman]

I four-table 10/20 about 12 hours/week and have a long-term win rate of just over 2BB/100.

To give you some idea of volatility:
PT shows a standard deviation of 16BB/100.
About 2/3rds of my sessions are winning.
I have a -100BB swing about once every 6 weeks.
The largest downswing I have ever had is about 150BB.

So,100BB downswings are not all that regular an occurence, but they do happen.

I would say any BB swing of less than 30 falls into the "ho-hum" category.

[tilting]

[ QUOTE ]
I four-table 10/20 about 12 hours/week and have a long-term win rate of just over 2BB/100.

To give you some idea of volatility:
PT shows a standard deviation of 16BB/100.
About 2/3rds of my sessions are winning.
I have a -100BB swing about once every 6 weeks.
The largest downswing I have ever had is about 150BB.

So,100BB downswings are not all that regular an occurence, but they do happen.

I would say any BB swing of less than 30 falls into the "ho-hum" category.

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I would say you have been exceptionally lucky. Not only are you winning 66% of your sessions and your max loss is 150BB, but you are having a 100BB downswing only once every, what, 30k hands?

I don't think that is anywhere near the norm for this game.

[JRichman]

Do you really think this is out of bounds?

To clarify, I'm not defining a session as any time I sit down at a table, but any time I play. PT shows my winning sessions as 50%. Since I try to be pretty selective about the tables I play, this includes a lot of times when I may only be at a table for 30 or 40 hands.

My stats are over 8 months, though I've only been four tabling for 3 months or so. Can I really be that lucky?

[jfresh]

not saying your stats are false, but i seem to recall from gonores and schneids 60k challenge, that 50 BB daily and 100-125BB weekly swings are the norm? I don't remember exactly, which is why i asked the question. i'd also like to hear more people's experiences. i'd be estatic if 30BB swings are all that happens a daily basis though!

[partypokerer]

I just dropped ~350bb in about 20k hands. Although im not completely sure im a winner at this level as my winrate is now only about .5bb/100 for 35k hands.
Anyone else getting swings this big?

[jrobb83]

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I just dropped ~350bb in about 20k hands. Although im not completely sure im a winner at this level as my winrate is now only about .5bb/100 for 35k hands.
Anyone else getting swings this big?

[/ QUOTE ]

I went up a little over 200 bbs my first 6k hands, then went on a 350 bb slide. I currently stand -140 bbs after 11k hands.

I am not playing as optimally as many of the full timers around here, but I have carefully looked over my play and my opponent's play throughout, and I am fairly confident I can beat the game. The swings are just that large.

[Schneids]

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not saying your stats are false, but i seem to recall from gonores and schneids 60k challenge, that 50 BB daily and 100-125BB weekly swings are the norm? I don't remember exactly, which is why i asked the question. i'd also like to hear more people's experiences. i'd be estatic if 30BB swings are all that happens a daily basis though!

[/ QUOTE ]

JRichman plays well and I have no reason to doubt his stats but I will say Gonores and I both play substantially more aggressive than him and therefore will likely probably experience more swings. He might be running well and just be lucky to have experienced so few swings thus far but I think his style of play also allows for smaller swings (hopefully you don't mind me making these comments JRichman).

And speaking for myself, I practice very mediocre table selection. So if he's practicing awesome table selection that probably helps minimize some of his swings.

[sxb]

If JxxxRichman is your handle, your win rate is much better than 2bb/100 in my pokertracker database. For 1,482 hands, from 10/02/2004 to 10/24/2004, you won $2,779.00 with a win rate of 9.38BB/100. Great job.

[joker122]

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And speaking for myself, I practice very mediocre table selection. So if he's practicing awesome table selection that probably helps minimize some of his swings.

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How so? When I'm picking a 10/20 table I'm looking for one or two 45%/29% guys who induce some pretty wild swings.

[Schneids]

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And speaking for myself, I practice very mediocre table selection. So if he's practicing awesome table selection that probably helps minimize some of his swings.

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How so? When I'm picking a 10/20 table I'm looking for one or two 45%/29% guys who induce some pretty wild swings.

[/ QUOTE ]

My table selection consists of "is there a seat open?" I don't use buddy lists any more and haven't exported notes in close to two months. I do check notes on people when I'm seated and only get up if I'm seated wtih 2+ solids and the rest unknowns.

[Blarg]

Is this because you feel like spending time looking for especially good tables is less EV than simply sitting down and getting the hands rolling in as quickly as possible?

And do you think that would be true or close to it for winning but mediocre players?

I'm basically wondering if your thinking is based on a feeling of having a good deal of skill in the game and thus your taking of any old seat may not apply well to less skilled players, or if you think that the tables in general really warrant that -- that the tables usually have such a smoothly even level of playing skill on them that anyone who can beat one can more or less beat them all?

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a -100BB swing about once every 6 weeks.
The largest downswing I have ever had is about 150BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

This sounds amazingly good. This month, 3tabling 10/20SH, I started with a very good run, + 600BB. Last days Im down 120BB, having a bit of bad luck but noway close to really running bad.

I have only 30-40K at 10/20 but at 5/10SH I had +150K and downswings +200BB have happend 2-3 times during this period. (my winrate was 3BB/100)

Your downswings has a lot to do with your winrate. If your winrate is 2BB/h you should be prepared to maximum lose 288BB (according to Malmuith and his "Gambling Theory and other topics") But a winrate needs hundreds of hours to be about right. If your winrate is 3BB/100 you dont need a bigger bankroll then 192BB so maybe you have been running bad and actually will win more when you reach long term. If your winrate actually is 2BB/100 and SD 16 you will sometimes experience bigger downswings then 150BB.

[JRichman]

[ QUOTE ]
JRichman plays well and I have no reason to doubt his stats but I will say Gonores and I both play substantially more aggressive than him and therefore will likely probably experience more swings. He might be running well and just be lucky to have experienced so few swings thus far but I think his style of play also allows for smaller swings.

[/ QUOTE ]

My aggression factor is 2.2. My PT shows that yours is about the same.

By the way, I had a very good October. Almost 4BB/100 over 17,000 hands. This is NOT typical.

Maybe I have been lucky to avoid huge downswings. Like I said, I've only been four-tabling for a few months.

Or maybe my table selection does have something to do with it. I tend to look for the 55/5 players rather than the 55/30 players.

And Schneids, I really do recommend you keep a buddy list. I almost never play at a table without one of my "buddies" and really think the time I take to update my list pays.

[naphand]

Absolutely.

This kind of additional work must pay dividends. Time spent getting your PT definitions meaningful and then putting those players into your buddy list is a good investment. I have seen lots of definitions of PT player types, but have not really got mine right yet. Define the losing players, define the tougher players, its not about pretty icons, its about where the $$ are. Nominal or arbitrary definitions will have some effect but I am looking for the 20% of players that produce 80% of the money, which means making definitions meaningful and then doing as JR says, use them.

The work I have done data mining Party $5/$10 so far has revealed 2 players types that donate far more $$ than any other group. JR's point is a very good one, and he has in fact highlighted those two groups. It is clear that one will result in bigger swings than the other, it's your choice. What makes JR's post and stats all the more credible is that he backs it up with a lot if history; this is not an "I'm winning at 11BB/100 after 10K so I must be onto something" post, and his rationale fits the facts.

[AceCraig]

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Or maybe my table selection does have something to do with it. I tend to look for the 55/5 players rather than the 55/30 players.



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Can you explain what this means?

[jfresh]

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Or maybe my table selection does have something to do with it. I tend to look for the 55/5 players rather than the 55/30 players.



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Can you explain what this means?

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i think he means 55% VPIP/5% PFR rather than 55% VPIP/30% PFR.

[jfresh]

bump for any more experiences... i'm winning 35BB/100 in my past 120 hands in 10/20... you think that'll last? /images/graemlins/laugh.gif good old pokertracker and datamining.... found me two maniacs who will raise and 3bet me when i have quads.

so i haven't had an concrete responses, but i am gathering 30-50BB swings daily are nothing to worry about? depending on your level of aggression of course.