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View Full Version : Fold a low flush draw with odds?


fimbulwinter
11-18-2004, 03:21 AM
not good players at table except guy on button. he's weak/tight.

PP 200NL 6max 2/4 blinds

Me: 45/images/graemlins/spade.gif

Preflop:

all called to me, i complete, BB checks. family pot.

Flop: ($22)

A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif

I check, BB checks, EP bets 15, called by EP+1, CO minraises to $30, Button cold calls, I fold.

I figure i'm getting odds, but the implied odds here are huge for the guy with Ax/images/graemlins/spade.gif if i do flush up. no way i'm pushing so im going to have to deal with the huge possibility of poisioned outs. so i fold then, right?

fim

SlyAK
11-18-2004, 05:35 AM
I'd fold here. I'd hate to call and then hit my hand and lose to a bigger flush. Plus you arent even closing the action, so there could be a big re-raise behind you, which would force you to fold. No way do I even think about pushing here... it looks like there are some strong hands out there.

Sly

soah
11-18-2004, 05:42 AM
If you hit the flush on the turn can you count on someone to bet again for you with just their pair or whatever? And what are stack sizes? I think I'd call if I'm pretty sure I can check-push on the turn. Especially if someone will call the check-push without a flush of their own.

If that's not the case, then chasing this flush is probably just a lot of variance without much or any EV. The fact that you can make your flush and still lose is a pretty big incentive for folding.