ugh, I hate this hand, somone tell me if I'm stooopid

[Alobar]

No big reads on anyone involved in this hand. No one has stood out as being either good, or horrible. Table as a whole is loose without much aggresion

party 5/10 6 max, 6 handed

Hero is button with J/images/graemlins/club.gifJ/images/graemlins/heart.gif
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO raises, Hero 3 bets, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, CO calls.

Flop: (13sb 4 handed) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif4/images/graemlins/heart.gif9/images/graemlins/club.gif
checked to the CO who bets, I call, BB calls, UTG calls

Turn: (9BB 4 peeps) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
BB bets $5(all in), UTG calls, CO calls, I raise, all call

River(14BB 4 peeps) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif yuck
checked to me and I bet, everyone calls

Obviously I'm most interested in my flop play. Is this an example of a "wait till the turn" to raise hand? Or should I have raised anyway, hoping to fold a gutshot (not likely they fold, and I've also got 2 of the jacks). I could have maybe folded an unpaired ace I suppose.

Everyone bets this river right?

[Bad Beat Coming]

I raise the flop here, to try to keep out people with overcards (like, um, a Q) from calling, and minimize the people seeing the turn that can beat you.

[element00]

play the flop more aggressively

[Guido]

Very easy flop raise. Why give trash like K4o good odds to call? There are flush and straight draws all over the place. I would say this is one of the worst flops to wait.

Guido

[Huskiez]

I'll take a stab at this.

I think you played it well. I think this is one of those examples where you should wait until the turn for a couple of reasons.

There are a lot of scare cards that could come. If you're faced with aggression on a scare card, you can just fold pretty safely.

You'll be able to protect your hand much better on the turn, just like you were saying. Ideally it would be checked to CO again, you raise, and now those draws can't call without terrible odds. Instead BB bet out and everyone was able to stay in.

I think I bet this river, grudgingly. Not being check raised is a good sign. If it were an offsuit queen I'd be much more inclined to bet.

My guess will be that you took the sidepot, and the BB had 77, and would have folded if you raised the flop.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
Very easy flop raise. Why give trash like K4o good odds to call? There are flush and straight draws all over the place. I would say this is one of the worst flops to wait.

Guido

[/ QUOTE ]

with it being 3 bet preflop I figured it much less likely for K4o to even be in the hand. And if he is bad enough to be in this hand, he is calling the 2 cold on the flop (and has the odds to do so).

[DrGutshot]

I agree raise the flop.

However - what do you do when you have AK or AQ here, still an easy flop raise to try to clean up your outs? or do you flatcall planning on folding the turn unimproved?

-DrG

[GFunk911]

Sorry, but this is an embarrassingly easy flop raise. You got the perfect situation, everyone checking to the CO who then bet. This allowed you to raise and charge people the maximum price to see the turn. There are (after the CO bet) 14 SB in the pot, and you have 4 people seeing a flop that was 3-bet preflop, but you don't put anyone on a pp higher than jacks. The odds are that at, on average, two of your overcards are out in opponent's hands, plus there are straight and flush draws. With 14 SB you must raise and maximize your chances to take down the pot (credit to Ed Miller, who I am shamelessly ripping off).

[ QUOTE ]

There are a lot of scare cards that could come. If you're faced with aggression on a scare card, you can just fold pretty safely.


[/ QUOTE ]

Let's talk about scare cards.
12 Overcards
3 Tens
3 Nines

Slightly less scary cards
8 Other Hearts
1 Non-Heart Jack
3 Non-Heart Eights

And the non-scary (so they don't really count as scare cards) but still notable
2 Non-Heart Fours
3 Non-Heart Sevens
3 Non-Heart Sixes


I count 15 very scary cards, 12 somewhat scary cards, and 8 non scary but possibly draw completing cards. That's (counting the 3rd category as 1/4 of an out each) 29 cards out of 47 remaining. I did this very quickly so I may be off by one or two. TWENTY NINE SCARE CARDS!!!!!!!!! And you don't want to raise the flop?

You wait to raise the turn on (relatively) unscary boards in (relatively) smaller pots, not with vulnerable hands in multiway, large pots.

[Alobar]

All of that I think is more reason to wait till the turn to raise. The turn card is likely to drastically change my equity. And Im not giving anyone incorrect odds to call 2 cold on the flop. I will also be giving them all correct odds to call on the turn. If none of the draws hit on the turn, I can then (hopefully) face everyone to call 2 cold and charge them the maximum or force them to make a mistake.

I was semi unsure about my play which is why I posted it, but the more I think about it, the more I think I was right. Which sucks because obviously everyone else thinks it was wrong, and it wasn't even close. So I dunno where that leaves me, heh.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
There are flush and straight draws all over the place.

[/ QUOTE ]

But this is a reason you would wait.

edit - i wouldn't wait here though, simply because gutshots don't have odds to call 2 bets.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree raise the flop.

However - what do you do when you have AK or AQ here, still an easy flop raise to try to clean up your outs? or do you flatcall planning on folding the turn unimproved?

-DrG

[/ QUOTE ]

If it were the exact same hand, but I had AK. It would depend if I had a heart or not. If I didnt have a heart, I would prolly just call and fold the turn unimproved, I may even just fold to the bet. I could easily be reverse dominated, or have 2 of my outs tainted by the flush, or both. Andif I do hit a heart A or K on the turn, that gives anyone with a heart a redraw. but the pot is big so I would prolly call the flop.

A raise isnt really going to clean up any outs because anyone with a pair+overcard A or K isn't folding to my raise. The reason to raise would be if I thought I could get it HU with the flop bettor, or even if it would fold someone out/get me a free card. If I had a heart I would lean more towards doing this. My hand isnt likely best, but it does have a shot of being ahead of the bettor who could have a hand like mine (he was the original pre flop raiser), I could still be reverse dominated, but having the heart really helps my situation out

[Huskiez]

[ QUOTE ]
You wait to raise the turn on (relatively) unscary boards in (relatively) smaller pots, not with vulnerable hands in multiway, large pots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Normally, I would always be raising here because I'm pretty sure I'm ahead. But after looking at SSHE, I think maybe the play is different.

On Page 187, it talks about having TT on a vulnerable board. It says that although you have the best hand, it does not necessarily mean you should raise. Your pot equity is small because there are many overcards that can beat you, and you're vulnerable to the flush. Instead wait until a safe turn to raise, where you can gain a great boost in pot equity.

Wrong thinking? I'm not sure, I'm still learning. But this is why I was saying to wait until the turn to raise.

[Huskiez]

[ QUOTE ]
A raise isnt really going to clean up any outs because anyone with a pair+overcard A or K isn't folding to my raise. The reason to raise would be if I thought I could get it HU with the flop bettor, or even if it would fold someone out/get me a free card. If I had a heart I would lean more towards doing this. My hand isnt likely best, but it does have a shot of being ahead of the bettor who could have a hand like mine (he was the original pre flop raiser), I could still be reverse dominated, but having the heart really helps my situation out

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I was thinking as well. Nobody is going anywhere. That's why I thought you should wait until a safe turn, where they'd be extremely wrong to be calling those two bets, and you could invest those bets with a pretty big edge in pot equity as well.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]


edit - i wouldn't wait here though, simply because gutshots don't have odds to call 2 bets.

[/ QUOTE ]



Doesn't the fact that I have 2 jacks change the gutshot situation? Its much less likely now that someone has KJ, and KQ Q8 both need a jack, and there are only 2 of them left in the deck (they would also give me a redraw). The only gutshot this doesnt effect is the ignorant end, like 76, 86.

Getting 8-1 and possibly 9-1, a gutshot can call 2 cold anyway here with implied odds, as they can likely get a check raise in on the turn if they hit.

[Guido]

[ QUOTE ]
With it being 3 bet preflop I figured it much less likely for K4o to even be in the hand

[/ QUOTE ]
There was a limper and the BB. A lot of players don't fold when they are in.

K4o was a bad example, I didn't realize that there was a 4 on the flop. K5o is a better example.

Guido

[Guido]

[ QUOTE ]
But this is a reason you would wait.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, you can wait and I didn't mean to suggest that that's the reason to raise. The reason is that you don't want hands like K6o or 67o to have correct odds to chase. Yes you can wait but what's a scare card? Are you sure the CO will bet again? A straight or flush draw isn't going to make a mistake anywhere no matter where you raise and they aren't going anywhere.

Guido

[GFunk911]

Posted in response to this thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1276269&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=&vc=#Post1276269)

Just FYI for everyone

[PokerNoob]

What about the fact that CO raised two limpers preflop? Don't you want to better define his hand when you merely have jacks AND chase overcards out? Then BB can not lead out the turn, which is what really screwed you up.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
What about the fact that CO raised two limpers preflop? Don't you want to better define his hand when you merely have jacks AND chase overcards out? Then BB can not lead out the turn, which is what really screwed you up.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, the BB leading the turn really messed everything up.

I'm never a fan of raising for information (i.e. "defining the COs hand"), and I already have some information on his hand by 3 betting him preflop. So the raise would be to force out hands I dont want to see the turn. Anyone with 2 overs has odds to call, so all I can hope to give incorrect odds to call are hands with an a single overcard and unpaired kicker. But I think it is less likely these hands are in the pot because of the PF 3 bet, and I think sacrificing that chance to raise the turn is the better play. But it apprears I am very much in the minority on this one

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't the fact that I have 2 jacks change the gutshot situation? Its much less likely now that someone has KJ, and KQ Q8 both need a jack, and there are only 2 of them left in the deck (they would also give me a redraw). The only gutshot this doesnt effect is the ignorant end, like 76, 86.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, so thier odds are even worse than i thought - the raise is even easier.

[ QUOTE ]
Getting 8-1 and possibly 9-1, a gutshot can call 2 cold anyway here with implied odds, as they can likely get a check raise in on the turn if they hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

true, but thier implied odds might be washed by thier reverse implied odds of the flush draw. they probably aren't thinking about that though.

[PokerNoob]

I would rather be 3-bet on the flop than the turn.

Also on the flop, overcards also don't know exactly what cards they are over, either, or how badly they are outkicked. Even gutshots may not want to hang around facing a bet, raise and maybe yet another raise behind. I want them thinking about calling 8-1 and worried about hitting and losing and having to call yet more raises.

[ChessMan]

raising the flop feels right to me. I don't expect to win this hand all the time, but I expect to win often enough to make raising +EV. Also, it wouldn't surprise me to see everyone call the raise.