Easy folds?

[jrobb83]

Party 10/20

Hand 1

6 handed, no reads.

UTG limps, MP raises, CO cold calls, SB calls, I 3-bet in BB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif, UTG folds, the rest call.

Flop: 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif
SB checks, I bet, MP goes all-in for $4, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif [7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif]
SB checks, I bet, CO calls, SB calls.

River: 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif [7/images/graemlins/heart.gif]

SB checks, I check planning to call, CO bets, SB check-raises, I fold.


Hand 2

Opponent is 54% vpip, 10% pfr, 1.80 aggr, 5 handed.

I raise UTG with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, MP folds, button 3-bets, SB folds, BB folds, I cap, button calls.

Flop: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif
I bet, button raises, I call.

Turn: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif [5/images/graemlins/spade.gif]

I check, button bets, I fold.

[balkii]

hand 1:
ouch thats tough. its look like you're beat but you probably didnt post this if you didnt fold the winner in a huge pot...i'll refrain from advice-giving there cause i'm not sure.

hand 2:

big pot
+ heads up
+ KK
--------------
go to showdown

[Scotch78]

Hand 1:

I wouldn't call this an easy fold. Most people would raise the turn with a four, so combined with his pre-flop cold call, I don't put the SB on a four. Did he catch a runner-runner full house? Possibly, but that's the kind of hand I think you'll just have to pay off. Given the action though, I wouldn't be too surprised to see the SB flip over 88. Not sure what would be best here, but I probably call.

Hand 2:

The board pairing means nothing; a 10% pre-flop raiser doesn't 3-bet with a five in his hand. If you believe he has the ace, I fold the flop. Otherwise I'm calling down. Folding the turn doesn't make much sense to me--with the backdoor flush draw, you have about 3 outs and 12-1 isn't enough to see the turn.

Scott

[jrobb83]

Of course Hand 1 turned out to be a bad fold, or I wouldn't have posted it. /images/graemlins/blush.gif SB showed 53s??? for a broken gutshot draw and CO showed the QQ he didn't put a single raise in anywhere with and took it down. Looking back at the hand I think my major mistake was checking the river. My thoughts were that I didn't want to have to put in two bets, but all sorts of worse hands would have called my bet here.

In hand 2, I called the flop raise because I had a decent semblance of outs, and I didn't want to be seen folding the flop for 1 bet after I had capped preflop. I'm surprised I was getting advice to call down to tell you the truth. Maybe I underestimate the LAGness of 10/20. The way I figured it was that I raised UTG, not stealing, was 3-bet by the button. I subsequently capped after raising UTG. Then after I capped, was raised by the button after an ace flopped. This to me signified great strength, so I folded.

[threepines]

Party 10-20 6 max w/no read I call down both of these hands. Would have bet the river in hand 1.

[Scotch78]

[ QUOTE ]
In hand 2, I called the flop raise because I had a decent semblance of outs

[/ QUOTE ]

Um . . . you were dominated with two outs and a runner-runner, if you think that is a good number of outs, please tell me your handle so I can mark you with the little fishy /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Scott

[Fiddler]

[ QUOTE ]

Um . . . you were dominated with two outs and a runner-runner, if you think that is a good number of outs, please tell me your handle so I can mark you with the little fishy /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think his outs are two kings and a runner runner he actually has the correct odds to look at the turn, 12.5:1 after the flop raise. But counting the kings as full outs seems a bit optimistic.

[Scotch78]

Since he has the K /images/graemlins/heart.gif, I only see his set losing to AA, so I think both kings are clean.

Scott

[Fiddler]

I'm confused by what you mean by clean... because if you think they are clean the pot is large enough to look at the turn. I meant "not clean" as in can't be counted as full outs. Some portion of the time I'd think villain has AK or AA and it makes sense to count the kings as only partial outs since in one case villain has one and in the other you are drawing pretty much dead. If we discount the kings the pot isn't large enough.

Sorry, it is the nitpicking-out-counting-micro-limit-player in me. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Scotch78]

An out is any card that will improve your hand when you are behind. Thus, our hero has two of them. However, we want to win the hand, not just improve. A dirty out is one which will still lose even when it comes in. Spiking a king will give the hero a winning hand unless someone else holds AA, so his outs are clean enough to count as full ones IMO. While it would be bad for our hero if someone else has AK, that would mean having less outs, not having dirty outs. More importantly, without a very strong reason to put the villain on AK, this possibility should be ignored. That said, the pot is not offering the 22-1 odds necessary to see the turn. The 12.5-1 is his chance of improving by the river, and he only gets those odds if the turn is checked through.

Scott

[wheelz]

I bet the river in hand 1 (why would anyone have a 7 in their hand?) and fold to the raise in hand 2. As much as it sucks to fold for one SB in a pot that size, face it, you don't have the odds to chase, and you're definitely beat. Probably AK, but AA and AQ are possible too.

[Fiddler]

[ QUOTE ]
The 12.5-1 is his chance of improving by the river, and he only gets those odds if the turn is checked through.

Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

But he isn't going to the river unless he improves by the turn.

Quick approximation if you think he wins with a set of kings or a flush:

75% of the time he'll pay 0.5BB and fold the turn
25% of the time he'll pay 1.5BB to see the river
8% of the time he'll have a set of kings or a flush on the river (so he loses 17% of the time when he has seen the river)

EV = -0.5*0.75 - 1.5*0.17 + 7.75*0.08 = -0.01

This is without any implied odds on the river when hero makes his hand so you should make the call if you think a set of kings or flush will win.

Sorry, for being annoying. I'm just trying to make sense of you counting the kings as full outs which I think is wrong and the reason to fold...

[Scotch78]

His odds of improving on the turn are 22-1 and the pot is giving him about 13-1. Implied odds cannot even come close to covering that gap, so this is a clear fold if he puts his opponent on an ace. And yes, you are being somewhat annoying, but keep doing it. You won't learn by shutting up, and I'm sure plenty of people put up with me when I started posting.

Scott

PS You're little odds thing there adds up to 108%.

[Fiddler]

[ QUOTE ]

PS You're little odds thing there adds up to 108%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, but you are wrong. 75% of the time he folds the turn he sees the river 25% of the time and has a set or flush of the river 8% of the time. The EV calculation uses 75%, 17% and 8%.

I.e.
75% of the time he pays 0.5BB and folds the turn
17% of the time he pays 1.5BB sees the river and folds
8% of the time he pays 1.5BB sees the river with a set or flush

I'm pretty sure my EV calculation is correct even if it is an approximation.

[Scotch78]

Yeah, I didn't read the equation, just the 75%, 25%, 8%. My bad.

Scott

[Fiddler]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I didn't read the equation, just the 75%, 25%, 8%. My bad.

Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

No worries, who wants to read equations in the morning. I was just trying to point out that that particular call, even if a little loose, isn't a real good basis for marking someone with a fish icon. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Scotch78]

It wasn't the call I thought was fishy. Referring to 3 outs as "a decent semblance of outs" is definitely fishy though.

Scott