Please help with my calculations here !!!!!!

[pittisit]

I have been getting beaten up with sets to my overpairs recently and was just wondering about my calculations here..... here is one example of a hand

Sorry no converter....100NL i have QQ make it $10 to go,
3 early limpers call...POT ~$45
flop 679
checked to me i bet $30,
guy reraises me for all his chips which makes it $60 more to me..pot now around $160..

obvious set rigth...anyway my question is what % of the time does this guy not have to have a set for my call to be correct instead of folding and losing $45 100% of the time...could someone please show me the correct way to figure this out..i did it in my own little way an come up with a number somewhere around 20% of the time he has to have a hand like A9 for my call to be better than a fold..Obviously if i knew he had a set a fold is best..but in these games you just never know.

[phisfliuch]

[ QUOTE ]
what % of the time does this guy not have to have a set for my call to be correct

[/ QUOTE ]

I was confused by this, but I'll provide a possible jumping off point. Let's say you assume he'll only do this with a set or top pair, ace kicker. There are 3 ways for him to have each of the 3 possible sets. There are 12 ways for him to have top pair, ace kicker. That's a total of 12+9=21 equally likely hands.

EV(call) = (160 * 9/21 * 0.105) + (-60 * 9/21 * 0.895) +
(160 * 12/21 * 0.775) + (-60 * 12/21 * 0.225 )

This is using approximate showdown monte carlo probabilities. Note that the probabilities multiplied by their occurrence add up to 1.0.

I didn't bother solving this but I think given the assumption I made, the call is +EV. To answer YOUR question, you'll have to expand on this according to hands you think he might do this with. As you can see, the "% of time of not having a set" depends on the other hands you select. Set EV = 0 and make sure the probabilities scaled by their occurrence sum to 1.0.

If you are really interested in this, you might take a stab at it, then post under Probabilites to get a check of your math and your assumptions.

[pittisit]

i was not aware of the other forum....I appreciate it.