Steelers only 4 point favs over the Browns! Why?

[krazyace5]

What am I missing here?

Also what do you think about these picks?

Giants -2 over the cardinals

Chiefs -4.5 over the saints

And Redskins over the bengals -3

[MikeyObviously]

The steelers have to play a division opponent in the browns they have already played once...at the dog pound. The browns defense is pretty underrated, and so is Jeff Garcia. I wouldn't bet on the browns either, just a no touch game.

I took the giants at -2.5 too. The line is like that because of Kurt Warner's terrible game and the cards eeking past miami. I like that bet

I don't like betting against the saints this year really. They have too much talent and I'm always afraid it will come out on the day I put money on it.

I took the bengals on the last bet at +3 (+105). They looked good last week, and I've been betting against the redskins all year to some success. If it is actually possible for a team with their record to be over-rated, then they are.

Be very careful about taking the Giants. They lost both of their starting defensive ends, including Michael Strahan. Teams had to put 2 and sometimes 3 men on him. Without Strahan, the Giants' defense is going to have major league problems, and the problem is exacerbated by the loss of Washington, the other end. I need to see the Giants for a couple of weeks before I would consider taking them and laying points against anybody.

[MrGo]

Saints have no defense. K.C. won't have Holmes this week but that won't matter as he hasn't been a factor in K.C.'s explosive offense the past couple of weeks. I'd take K.C. here.

Giants game looks good. They will rebound after the debacle against Chicago.

[Boris]

The giants lost Strahan and Washington, their two best defensive lineman. The cardinals have played tough all year. I would be wary of this one.

Just curious ... do you have a substantive reason to feel that the Giants will "rebound", or is it just a gut feeling? It seems that a team that may not have been that good to begin with just got a whole lot worse with 2 key injuries ... so laying points on the road against a team that is not as bad as the public thinks is not a good bet in my opinion. There has to be better on the board this week.

[James282]

I had personally thought the Giants(especially that offensive line) had been overachieving all season and now that Strahan is out I wouldn't make any bets there way against half-decent opponents. As far as the Steelers' game goes, Duce is still questionable for next week and as another poster semi-pointed out the Browns' run defense is superior to the Eagles. Don't look for the Bus to run for more than 60 yards if Duce doesn't play. That said, I'm a Steelers' fan and I'm betting the Steelers all the way, baby.
-James

[Ed Miller]

Saints have no defense. K.C. won't have Holmes this week but that won't matter as he hasn't been a factor in K.C.'s explosive offense the past couple of weeks. I'd take K.C. here.

You guys are nuts, man.

[Ed Miller]

Steelers only 4 point favs over the Browns! Why?

They are on the road. All other things equal, road favorites are the worst NFL bets. Three of your four plays are road favorites.

[cookieb]

Gotta agree with ED, Holmes is the factor in the KC offense every week. His back up is knicked up as well, Saints D is terrible, but they won't be scared of Larry Johnson (losing Holmes is a bigger loss in the passing game, imo, Johnson cant do what Holmes does on screens and dump offs, the chiefs wont even try)

[mtdurham]

This is precisely why 90% of sports bettors are losers. They just take the teams that the media says are good i.e. Philadelphia.

The Steelers aren't facing the hapless Eagles this week, the Browns have a much better defense (as a few people already pointed out). I'm not saying I'd take the Browns +4 as a lock, but there's a reason the line is set there.

The Giants parlayed a good start into people thinking they are a really good team. The fact that they crushed Minnesota (w/o Moss healthy) means a lot less than the public thought it did.

I'd take Arizona over the Giants. There is a good rule of thumb in gambling. If it's close, bet AGAINST Kurt Warner. He's more likely to lose a game for the team than win one.

[Beerfund]

The Steelers aren't facing the hapless Eagles this week

By hapless do you mean 7-1, NFC leading hapless? :confused:

[sublime]

divisional home game

nuff said

[Matt24]

Krazy- not trying to bust your balls or anything, but your 4 plays all reak of the average sports bettor. I'm a bookie and those 4 plays look like what my players will take sunday. Look for dogs.

[MikeyObviously]

I'd have to say I like what most people on the thread are saying, except for the opinions of the giants. Tiki barber has always been a top back, and now he seems to have ditched his fumblitis. Kurt Warner will be just fine. If you watch his "breakdown" from last week it wasn't as bad as it looked in the stats. Plus, has everyone forgot who they are playing? Arizona has 3 wins (Miami, Seattle, and New Orleans). 2.5 pts still allows a FG win...I'm still going Giants -2.5 and Bengals +3.

Your "theory" on the Giants game is busted easily. "Has everyone forgot who they are playing"? Uh, they played the Bears last week. At home. And lost by 7. While they were still healthy. And Arizona is not as bad as the Bears. And if you believe in "momentum", they might have it coming off a miracle win in Miami.

Warner was not the problem last week. It was the Giants' inability to handle a blitz on every down. Whether that was the fault of the o-line or protection schemes (i.e. coaching) I can't tell you. But Arizona's D is good and you can bet your last nickel that they will blitz until the Giants show they can handle it. And they showed nothing of the sort last week.

*Could* the Giants win the game? Of course. And if they do, they will probably cover 2.5. Would I put money on it? Absolutely not.

Good luck.

[eggzz]

I would be careful about betting Pittsburgh this week. They punched two very good teams right in the face and showed they are the class of the NFL right now. Now you ask them to stay up one more time against their fiercest divisional rival. Can they keep their level of play that high for another week? And on the road to boot? I wouldn't bet on it. I'd take the Browns here for a small play, or not play it at all. Smells like another trap.

[sublime]

they are not the "class" of the NFL

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
They punched two very good teams right in the face and showed they are the class of the NFL right now. Now you ask them to stay up one more time against their fiercest divisional rival.

[/ QUOTE ]


Would you be more likely to bet on the Steelers if they HADN'T punched two very good teams right in the face?

[eggzz]

First off, to Mr. Sublime, if the Steelers are not the class of the NFL right now, who is?? I can't fathom that statement, nor who you would rank higher than Pittsburgh right now.

Micro -- Yes, I would be more inclined to bet the Steelers had they not been so impressive the last two weeks. Case in point, the KC Chiefs. All I'm saying is that it is very difficult to continue to play at such a high level week in and week out. Pittsburgh is coming off two incredibly emotional games, and now they travel to Cleveland. They are favored on the road, and I think it spells trouble.

They have two pair on the flop, but are vulnerable to the flush draw on the river, the Cuyahoga river that is.

[Michael Davis]

Yes, I hate it when the media makes an awful team like the Eagles look like gold.

-Michael

[mtdurham]

7-1 and on the verge of a collapse. Two straight poor performances. The Ravens were w/o Heap, Ogden, and Lewis and they squeaked it out at home.

They have one of the worst (if not worst) run defenses in the league and one of the worst (with westbrook out) running games in the league.

Personally, I'd be SHOCKED to see them win the NFC championship. Wait until the hype subsides and they start playing good teams...

[WC64]

The card I received last night had Cleveland at +7, although I didnt play them with my parlay (because Cleveland always screws me), I took Cleveland and the points for a $10 bet. I thought that seemed like an easy pick, but maybe I am wrong.

[krazyace5]

[ QUOTE ]
Krazy- not trying to bust your balls or anything, but your 4 plays all reak of the average sports bettor. I'm a bookie and those 4 plays look like what my players will take sunday. Look for dogs.

[/ QUOTE ]

No problem, I am fairly new to all of this, so thought I would ask for others thoughts.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Micro -- Yes, I would be more inclined to bet the Steelers had they not been so impressive the last two weeks.

[/ QUOTE ]


Well, I certainly cannot say that I understand or agree with that logic.
If a team is playing well then they are playing well....it doesn't have to be indicative that they are "due" or "ready for a collapse". It could just mean they are a good team.


FWIW - I got PIT at -3.5 and jumped all over that one.


After a certain point in the PIT-PHI game they were just toying with them. Running the ball more to burn clock...and obviously PIT's defense was solid.
But they have also proven that if tehy get into trouble they can air it out if that will help in their comeback efforts.

CLE is decent...but PIT is simply better.
On a neutral field I rate PIT around 8-9 points better than CLE. So for me, getting PIT -3.5 at CLE was an easy choice.

[WC64]

[ QUOTE ]
getting PIT -3.5 at CLE was an easy choice.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have taken that in a heartbeat too, but since the card I had was Cleveland +7 I had to take them.

[Waterproof]

Why is everyone and their mother on this game? Two rivals that hate each other. One really good team vs. one chitty team who happens to play great @ home.

Any given Sunday, yet people are all over this one. Some games you should just lay off. Anyway, if I had to bet it, I would hit Pitt. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[sublime]

First off, to Mr. Sublime, if the Steelers are not the class of the NFL right now, who is?? I can't fathom that statement, nor who you would rank higher than Pittsburgh right now.

what defines "class of"? to me its head and shoulders abover every other team, do you really view pittsburgh in that light?

lol, you can't "fathom" the statement? i didn't say Q8s is better than AA bro /images/graemlins/grin.gif

they beat a NE team that was without a RB and a overhyped PHI team BOTH at home. All they are is another team in the bucket IMO.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is everyone and their mother on this game? Two rivals that hate each other. One really good team vs. one chitty team who happens to play great @ home.

[/ QUOTE ]



I don't think 2 rivals who hate each other should be that big of a deal.
The fans get more out of the 'history' of the rivalry than the players do.
If PIT had never played CLE before this Sunday both sides would still want to win.

[tolbiny]

Where the hell do you live?
When we (the browns) play pittsburgh or Baltimore the city has a slight buzz to it leading up to the game. The satdium is definately louder and more intense and more likely to stay that way the entire game.
Now this may only make a slight difference- except that players have been on their respective teams and those players have a tendancy to take the rivalry to heart, and they become more involved. "playoff game atmosphere" happens nearly every time they come to town.

[Easy E]

MicroBob doesn't really understand- he's from Memphis and only thinks that MAC games are a big deal

[eggzz]

[ QUOTE ]
First off, to Mr. Sublime, if the Steelers are not the class of the NFL right now, who is?? I can't fathom that statement, nor who you would rank higher than Pittsburgh right now.

what defines "class of"? to me its head and shoulders abover every other team, do you really view pittsburgh in that light?

lol, you can't "fathom" the statement? i didn't say Q8s is better than AA bro /images/graemlins/grin.gif

they beat a NE team that was without a RB and a overhyped PHI team BOTH at home. All they are is another team in the bucket IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

You will be right Sublime, but only in two more days. When they lose to the lowly Brownies, they will no longer be the class of the NFL.

By the way, you never answered who you considered to be better than Pittsburgh as of right now.

[sublime]

By the way, you never answered who you considered to be better than Pittsburgh as of right now.

New England (with dillon)

sorry, im a homer. See you in the playoffs /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[MicroBob]

a buzz in the city is somewhat meaningful.....but probably moreso to the fans than to the players.

I here people say "it's a divisional rivalry game so they will be playing harder" all the time.
How often do you hear "well, it's not a rivalry game so I guess they won't be playing as hard."

If you ask the players and coaches they will pretty much tell you straight up that they like to think they play hard for every game.


Yes, of course there is an impact of a wild-crowd or playoff atmosphere....but I do think it is overplayed.

Players in a given sport tend to play their hearts out regardless of crowd.


True, I am new to the sports-betting universe.

If it is a given (proven from previous results) that divisional-rivalry games in the NFL have a tendency to play closer than expected when compared with non-rivalry games then the argument has merit.

But just saying that the Browns will be playing harder or that the game will be closer because it is a divisional rivalry game (or PIT won't play as hard because they just beat NE and PHI) just doesn't do it for me.


BTW - the line on Pinnacle is still PIT -3.5 (-102). (someone mentioned that they would take it for -3.5.....just pointing out it's still available).

[bones]

Pittsburgh's backfield is in a world of hurt. Staley and Haynes (3rd down back and probably a better tailback than Bettis) are both gonna be watching the game. Bettis is slightly banged up, as is Kreider. That leaves Willie Parker, who might as well be Willie Mays Hayes.

It's gonna take a huge defensive effort from the Steelers who are still missing key players. As a lifelong Steeler fan, I could never bet against them, but I wouldn't play them this week. Feels like a trap.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
That leaves Willie Parker, who might as well be Willie Mays Hayes.

[/ QUOTE ]


What do you have against Willie Mays Hays?

[bones]

Nothing against Wesley Snipes, but I did resent Omar Epps for changing the character. He did not run like Mays and play like Hayes.

[tolbiny]

"Run like Mays, hit like Hayes"

"Well willie you may run like Mays but you hit like Sh*t"

[tolbiny]

Microbob-

"How often do you hear "well, it's not a rivalry game so I guess they won't be playing as hard.""

How often do you hear "well they just didn't show up today?" That is basically the same sentiment- Playing Hard in the NFL is an average week. there are levels above playing Hard- We see it every year in playoff games. Anyone who plays sports competetively knows how impossible it is to be "up" for every game, but also knows how certain times it is almost impossible to not be up.

"Players in a given sport tend to play their hearts out regardless of crowd."

If this were true then there would be no homefield advantage- and there most certainly is.

"But just saying that the Browns will be playing harder or that the game will be closer because it is a divisional rivalry game"

Not because it is A rivalry game, but because it is THE rivalry game. If we plyaed denver the fans would see it as a rivalry game, but the players not so much so as they weren't around in 1986-1986.
But the Browns play pittsburgh twice a year, and the cities are [censored] 2 hours apart. The players were there when they got bitchslpped in the first game in Pittsburgh. Some of these players were here when they blew a 17 point lead in the playofffs to pittsburgh 2 years ago. It only takes a certain few players in the clubhouse to start a vibe.
It isn't the only factor, but the playres feel it and it will be borne out on the field today.

[Easy E]

From Fox Sports online

"Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Joey Porter and Cleveland Browns running back William Green were ejected before Sunday's game for fighting during warmups.

About 45 minutes before the opening kickoff, the players exchanged several punches near midfield as the teams were going through drills. TV replays appeared to show Green spitting at Porter, whose back was to the camera.
Green's lower lip was bloodied from the confrontation.

Browns fullback Terrelle Smith also threw a few punches but was not ejected.

Both Green and Porter had their helmets off when they began swinging wildly at each other before they were broken up. It was unclear what triggered the fight.

Already the NFL's most heated rivalry, the game was spiced up earlier this week by Browns defensive tackle Gerard Warren, who threatened to go after the head of Steelers rookie quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.

Warren was warned by the league on Friday to watch himself or face a suspension.

Green is the Browns' leading rusher with 441 yards. He had 27 yards on three carries in Cleveland's loss to Pittsburgh on Oct. 10. "


Wonder how this will affect my under bet... /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Waterproof]

"Not because it is A rivalry game, but because it is THE rivalry game."

Well said... Yankees and Red Soxs, OSU and Michigan, Browns and Steelers...

Playing in Cleveland is brutal... I was at a game a few years ago where every beer bottle is the place ended up on the field. No one likes playing the Browns at home especially if you're the Steelers.

14-3 @ half

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
"Players in a given sport tend to play their hearts out regardless of crowd."

If this were true then there would be no homefield advantage- and there most certainly is.

[/ QUOTE ]


I believe that unfamiliarity with surroundings as well as travel have as much to do with the home-team having an advantage as anything else.


I've worked in low-level minor-league baseball, mid-major women's college basketball, etc.
Some of these teams draw about 100-200 fans per game (I've seen as few as 4 fans).....yet the home-team still wins a majority of the games in these leagues.

And, without knowing the numbers, I would be willing to guess that the number of teams dominating on their home turf (15-game home winning streaks and the like) are approximately the same as for the major sports.

I would also bet that the unusual situation of a team having a better record on the road than at home is just as infrequent in these sports where they are drawing very few hands as it is in sports with very large crowds (NFL, major-college football such as SEC, Big 10, Big 12, etc).


Large crowds do juice up players....it's hard not to. And it does play a role although I think BOTH teams get pumped by the noise (and have talked with players who have told me the same thing)
I am just arguing that the home-crowd advantage is not a hugely significant role and I base this on my experience in low-attendance sports where the home-team advantage seems roughly similar to my observation.

[eggzz]

Well the Brownies really laid an egg today. I humbly remove all support of my theory that they would actually play a game today. How disappointing. Looks like Steelers (and Pats -Sublime) are still class of NFL for another week.

I wonder how much Warren's stupid comments had to do with the competitiveness of the game though. Cowher was quoted saying he was worried about the tenacity of his teams' practices on Monday and Tuesday, and was worried this was a trap game for them, coming off those two big wins. Then Big Money's comments find their way to Pittsburgh,and the emothion came back in full force.

What an idiot. I can't think of too many Big Money plays the guy has made in his glorious career other than the cheap shot he took on Brunell that cost him 35k.

Still making money in the handicapping contest though, so I'm happy...

[Easy E]

They lost by double digits to the team that lost to the Steelers TWICE by double-digits... and it's 4.5?

[MicroBob]

Yeah. I would list PIT as a 7-point favorite in this one at Cincy.

PIT by 12 if they were hosting this thing.


Cincy IS playing better though and, as i recall, hung in there for awhile AT PIT.

But I think PIT is just getting stronger and stronger and their defense is pretty tough.
Will likely bet on PIT again.