Omaha 8, do you call double low draws?

Say you raise with a hand like A235 suited in O8, after 6 limpers.


Flop comes 7JJ.


Someone bets, do you call your double gutshot low draw? You basically have a nut low draw.


- Tony

You have to catch runner runner low cards to win half the pot. I'd throw it away.

what low draw??


be it high, or be it low, I never call it a draw unless there are 2 on the board


you didn't mention suites of the flop, so guess there is no flush draw for you, and if not , then you really don't have any draw

The first thing you should do is read the essay called "A Few Omaha Odds" by David Sklansky, which can be found on this site.


Yes, you should call. You'll make a low about 28% of the time and most of the time it will be the nut low. Since you (correctly) raised preflop, there should be at least 15 small bets in the pot. Since you'll win half the pot around 1/4 of the time you have an overlay.


Then again, what do I know.


Rube

Tony, As a rule of thumb, you can call ONE bet with a non counterfeitable BACKDOOR (or nearly so such as A24X) low draw and little else as long as the pot was raised before the flop and you have three or more opponents.


Regards,


Rick

How do you figure that?


Lets say there is a total of 4 players, a raise before the flop and a single bet on each of the other rounds. The pot would be 28 small bets and you have put in 5 of them since the flop.


You are playing for 14 small betts which you win 28% of the time. So your expected win is 3.92 for your investment of 5 those time you don't have to share the low side.

You put in 2 of those 5 small bets in preflop. Once you raised preflop and put in 2 small bets, they are part of the pot, and the decision is to continue on the flop with your double gutshot low draw. I guess it depends on how tenacious the opponents are also, if you should call the flop bet?


- Tony

Chaos,


I may have some flaws in my math and logic below but I know you can’t look at it from pre flop to finish. In other words, if you somehow knew your A23x was going to see a flop of QJ8 (with no flush draw) you wouldn’t play it. But you don’t know so you reevaluate post flop.


Keep in mind I only advise taking one off for one bet with position (i.e., you are not likely to get raised behind). If you have is a backdoor low with backup for half the pot you will make it 24.2 percent of the time per the Sklansky Essay on the 2+2 home page.


In a raised four-way pot you will have at least 8 small bets in pre flop. If someone bets the flop and there are a couple callers you have 11 small bets and have a 25% shot at half for one small bet. Of course you don’t continue unless a baby comes but some of those babies will give you half of a pot that could get jammed on the river.


Also note that pots with two high cards on the flop rarely get jammed on the flop and hands with no made low on the turn also don’t get jammed often. So you will usually get to draw cheaply. Of course if you make it you should be more willing to jam with a backdoor low then a regular low, especially if an ace or deuce makes your low (and perhaps counterfeiting the other low draw).


I’d love to see Louie Landale, Ray Zee, Pac Bell Buzz or OhNoNotAgain comment (even if they disagree).


Regards,


Rick

It depends on how many are coming in with you. I don't like the flop you cite in your example. A better one would be J94, where a strong high isn't made. Under optimal conditions you can take one off and hope for a dink (A or 2) to come.


If others call in front of you, or you think your call may bring in hitch-hikers, it can be a good play. If there are good players at the table, it may show them you are a chaser, and get you more action later.

it also depends on like you say, if you think you will be raised. also you have to add in any times you may hog it all by bluffing or making the high hand. from that take away the times you will split the low with someone. so you need to read the hands some, but many times it pays to take one off.

Hi Rick - I don’t think calling one bet following a pre-flop betting round with one raise called by six players, a flop with only one low card, a seven, and with only three opponents also seeing the turn would be worth while, on the average, even if you improved Tony’s hand to A-2-3-4.


Maybe in the early days of Omaha-8, a favorable scenario for the rule of thumb you cite was more likely than it is in a casino today. Ray Zee’s book had not been written then. Maybe more opponents chased.


Whatever. Although I can come up with a favorable scenario for the rule of thumb you cite working, on the average, I feel almost certain I would lose money by playing even the perfect low hand, A-2-3-4, when there is only one low card, say a seven, on the flop, even in the wild and loose games in which I often find myself.


Here is the favorable scenario:


(1) There is one raise before the flop which is called by 6 players, making a total of 12 small bets in the pot after the first betting round. (This is realistic).


(2) There is one small bet on the flop which is called but not raised by each of 4 players, making a total of 12 + 4 = 16 small bets in the pot after the second betting round. (This is also realistic).


(3) There is one big bet on the turn which is called by each of four players, making a sub-total of 4 big bets added to the pot on the third betting round. (This is also realistic).


No bet on the third betting round is simply not realistic, given what has already transpired. No one but a fool would bet on the second betting round and then allow his/her opponents to see a free card on the third betting round.


If you’re playing against such a fool, there will be better opportunities to take his/her money later in the session when you get a flop that meshes better with your hand.


One bet on the turn by the player who bet the flop (or by another player) is realistic. In that case, if low comes in on the river, a betting war between you, holding the nut low, and the opponent who has been leading the betting since the flop does seem feasible.


However, equally feasible is a scenario where there is either only one or only two bets on the river, in which case, considering quartering and sixthing possibilities, you, holding the nut low, would lose money. Also equally feasible is a scenario where at least one player folds to a bet on the river, in which case, again considering quartering and sixthing possibilities, you would also lose money. Also equally feasible is a scenario where there is a raise on the turn, or where at least one player folds to a bet on the turn, in which case, again considering quartering and sixthing possibilities, you would also lose money.


Note that for the rule of thumb you have cited to be successful, (1) three opponents have to stay to see three or four bets on the river, (2) there can be no raising on the turn and (3) when three opponents see four bets on the river, there has to be no more likelihood than with normal distribution that one of them also has the nut low. If any one of these goes awry, your wallet will suffer a loss here.


If none of these goes awry, your average profit figures to be about one small bet. Although normal distribution for getting tied by exactly one other player (quartered) with an ace-deuce nut low in a nine player game is 37.7%, and of being tied by exactly two other players (sixthed) is 5.3%, I used lower numbers in my calculation shown below (28% for being quartered and 2% for being sixthed). I used the lower numbers because they are the approximate probabilities of getting quartered and sixthed with the nut A-2 low in a six player game. In the rare event that 3-4 (or even 2-4, or A-4) would be the nut low, some opponents would have folded some hands with these holdings to the pre-flop raise and some opponents would have folded some hands with these holdings to the bet on the flop. My source for the probability values shown above is an r.g.p. post authored by Harry026.


It’s clearly impossible to know the actual likelihood of any of three opponents on the river to also have the nut low after a pre-flop raise followed by a flop of 7-J-J. I strongly suspect it would be higher than the 28% and 2% I am using below, assuming three opponents stayed for three or four big bets on the river, but it could possibly be lower because of the pre-flop raise and the flop with only one low card.


Note that after a first betting round during which 12 small bets are contributed to the pot, a second betting round during which 4 small bets are contributed, a third betting round during which 4 big bets are contributed, and a final betting round during which 16 big bets are contributed, there is a total of 56 small bets (or 28 big bets) of which the player with A-2-3-4 will have contributed 11 small bets after the first betting round.


Here’s the math for A-2-3-4 after a flop with only one low card which is a 5, 6, 7, or 8 for exactly three opponents, assuming (1) all stay for the showdown, (2) there is one small bet on the flop, (3) one big bet on the turn, (4) four big bets on the river, (5) the probability of being quartered is 0.28 and (6) the probability of being sixthed is 0.02.


(a) -1*(21/45) = -0.4667 .... loss when the turn is unfavorable

(b) -3*(24/44) = -1.6364 .... loss when the river is unfavorable

(c) +(56/2 - 11)*0.248*0.70 = +2.9512 .... gain with an un-split low

(d) +(56/4 -11)*0.248*0.28 = +0.2083 .... gain when quartered

(e) +(56/6 -11)*0.248*0.02 = -0.0083 .... loss when sixthed


total = 1.0481 small bets.


Note that if anything goes awry, if anyone folds on the turn or the river, if there is a raise on the turn, if there are not at least three bets called by at least three opponents on the river, if the probability of being quartered and sixthed goes up substantially, A-2-3-4 loses money.


All things considered, even if the pot is raised before the flop, playing A-2-3-4 or A-2-3-5 to a bet after a flop of 7-J-J, hoping to average a one small bet gain simply doesn’t seem worth while. Playing A-2-4-X seems even less worth while.


If the betting is capped before the flop, then A-2-3-4 is possibly worth playing. In that case, assuming you know your opponents well and they will all do what you mostly want them to do after the flop, your average gain will be about 2.3 small bets. (I write mostly, because I know you don’t want anyone to bet the turn, but that simply is not realistic. If you are going to insist that three opponents will stay on a final betting round which is capped, I must insist that at least one of them bets the turn). /images/glasses.gif In that case,


(a) -1*(21/45) = -0.4667 .... loss when the turn is unfavorable

(b) -3*(24/44) = -1.6364 .... loss when the river is unfavorable

(c) +(68/2 - 11)*0.248*0.70 = +3.9928 .... gain with an un-split low

(d) +(68/4 -11)*0.248*0.28 = +0.4166 .... gain when quartered

(e) +(68/6 -11)*0.248*0.02 = +0.0017 .... gain when sixthed


= + 2.308 small bets. I still don’t like it much, but after a pre-flop betting round in which 24 small bets are put into the pot I agree it’s hard to give up your share of the 24 small bets when holding A-2-3-4, even after a flop of 7-J-J. The obvious extreme danger is where one of your three opponents folds and you become almost certain that at least one of your two opponents remaining also holds the nut low.


Buzz

Very through analysis as always, Buzz.


I did see any return for the times when you sweep the pot (or get 3/4), for example, when you get runner runner 65 (after a flop with one 7), and your bottom straight stands up for high.

Good point, Fred.


The possibility of runner-runner 6-5 winning for high did cross my mind.


There are 16 chances out of 990 of catching a six and a five to make a runner-runner bottom end straight, about a 1.6% chance. That would seem to increase your pot equity. However, with a board of 7-J-J-6-5, you could hardly expect to get the required jamming on the river to make up for the times when you miss and are forced to fold on the turn. If you did get the jamming on the river, it would almost surely be from a boat or a higher straight.


Possibly an even better chance to scoop would be to catch runner-runner A-A, or even a single ace with another low card, with no one else having an ace, a jack, or a full house.


However, if you have three opponents who each pay a small bet to see the turn, it's hard to believe none of them have anything but over-pairs. It's possible, but it isn't reasonable (at least in the games in which I play). If none of your three opponents hits on the river (or before), a capped betting round on the river with all three opponents staying for the showdown is pretty far feched. It's possible, I suppose, but if you call the bet on the flop, hoping your opponents are all playing over-pairs, then you start playing as badly as your poorest playing opponents.


We could change Tony's cards a bit, giving him an A-2-3-J to go with the flop of 7-J-J, and I think we'd all play that one. But Tony specifically asked about his chances with a low-only draw.


I think A-2-3-4 or A-2-3-5 is pretty much of a low-only hand after a flop of 7-J-J, especially when three opponents call the bet on the flop.


I just showed one possible betting scenario where the rule of thumb Rick cited might be profitable. I didn't show other (more likely, IMHO) scenarios where it wasn't.


Buzz

Buzz,


Thanks a lot for going through all this effort. I never thought I needed to tighten up as it seems I'm always the tightest at the table.


What do you think of taking one off against fewer opponents (let's say the three in my example) when the callers are weak (and not likely to have a nut low draw), there is only an average of 1.3 bets on the turn (i.e., the turn gets raised only 30% of the time), and on average, a bet, a call, and a raise on the river (if you make it), with about a 90% chance your low is good.


OTOH, you should make me do my own work (although I can never find the time) /images/smile.gif .


Regards and Thanks Again,


Rick

Rick -


After a flop or 7-J-J, what might my opponents be holding if they are poor players? One of them bet the flop and two others called. They might have started with all kinds of garbage, including J-9-7-2 or 7-7-4-2. Or they might coincidentally have decent starting hands, like A-2-3-4 or A-K-Q-J.


Poor players are more dangerous after a flop like this than good players are.


There are many situations in Omaha-8 where you might do one thing against one group of opponents and another thing against a different group of opponents. I don’t think what you do after this flop is one of them. I think your course of action in this situation mainly depends on the cards you hold.


What should someone be holding to justify playing a flop of 7-J-J? What do you want to hold when you see a flop of 7-J-J?


I want a jack plus two or three higher cards to go with the jack. I like A-A-K-J, A-A-Q-J, A-A-J-J, A-A-J-T, A-2-K-J, A-2-Q-J, A-2-J-J, A-3-K-J, A-3-Q-J, A-3-J-J, A-K-K-J, A-Q-Q-J, A-K-J-J, A-Q-J-J, A-K-Q-J, K-Q-J-J, K-K-Q-J, K-Q-Q-J, K-K-J-J, Q-Q-J-J, K-Q-J-T, K-J-T-9, Q-J-T-9, and maybe a few (but not many) others here. I’m trying to pick from hands I might actually be playing as starters. That Q-J-T-9 is the bottom of the barrel unless I was on the button. If I was on the button and had limped in with J-J-4-2 or some similar hand, and then gotten burned with a pre-flop raise from the blind, I’d obviously play that hand too. As an aside, I’d want some of the hands I have listed above and below to have a suited ace to have played them as starters (except from the button) in the first place.


I’d also take a card off after this flop with A-2-3-J, A-2-4-J, A-3-4-J, A-A-K-K, A-A-Q-Q, or K-K-Q-Q. If I was on the button and had limped in with something like J-T-3-2, and then called a pre-flop raise from the blind, I’d take one off with that hand too.


I’d be stuck with A-2-7-7, probably hating myself for playing it to begin with, but at the same time driving the action with it, unless raised.


After a flop of 7-J-J, I don’t like most other hands I might be playing as starters, A-2-3-X and A-2-4-X among them.


I'm not an expert by any means, just a student of the game. I'm delighted with any suggestions or criticisms that help me improve my game. Maybe my approach to playing this flop is too rigid. Maybe I'm missing something here.


Thanks for your help in the past. /images/glasses.gif


Regards,


Buzz

I'm not sure what point you are making here, I'm certainly would not play this hand for high.


Assume that you are basically playing for the low draw, but the high possibilities only give you an extra equity. Assume that if you make a high, only one bet goes in on the river, so the total pot is only 32 small bets. Further assume that you only sweep on 2% of the hands. This will still add .64 of a small bet to the expectation you calculated earlier.

One of the biggest pots I've ever seen in 2-4 Omaha8 at Paradise was won by someone who raised preflop, was reraised, and which was called by 6-7 people. The JJ4 rainbow flop brough raise and reraise and rereraise from two other players which the preflop raise called but no others called. Turn is 5, which is similarly raised and reraised. River is an Ace and preflop raiser's wheel scoops a huge pot with his A,2,3,5.


I only mention the acedote because I wonder how much impact on the decision to see the turn and river with a low hand if the low card that flops is part of a wheel and your hand contains the other parts?


I personally play too tight to call the turn under any circumstances with a low only hand like the one described by the original poster but if there was a possible straight and the nut low involved, I'm not sure I might not try it.

to make it more simple, few times if your only win is to make a low will you play on. but when you have other ways to win you need to factor them in, and they make a real factor. in this particular example it doesnt make much sense to play on unless you know alot about how the hand will progress and it will have to go in your favor substantially.

its funny but this kind of situation tends to go better for you if there are few others in rather than more unless the field is huge. and the higher the stakes the better it is for you as they may be bluffed out more often and the chance that they bet with nothing.

my guess rick is that even though you are the tightest at the table you need to tighten up a bit and maybe be more aggressive later on in the hands.

The point is the extra expectation for winning high is too small to make the hand playable, IMHO.

Bob - Thanks for responding.


When you hold A-2-3-5, a flop of J-J-4 is substantially different than a flop of J-J-7. With J-J-4, you have essentially caught the "eyehole" of your A-2-3-5 hand. With a flop of J-J-4, A-2-3-5 has 6*3*3 or 54 ways (out of 990) to make a wheel, which is a very possible scooper. In addition, you have another 4*3*3 or 36 ways to make a six high straight plus the nut low, which is even better than making a wheel.


When nobody has quad jacks or makes a full house, your wheel or your six high straight + nut low will often scoop. This will happen a substantial portion of the time.


In addition, there are another 156 ways to make the nut low. (The 156 is off the top of my head and may not be exact).


You still will be quartered or sixthed for low more than you like and you still will be halved and thirded more than you like, but your average share of the pot figures to be substantially better than it would be if you held A-2-3-5 and the flop was J-J-7.


Maybe I'm leaving out something here, but you already have enough to play this hand with this flop, even without the pre-flop raises, but certainly with them.


J-J-4 is a whole lot different than J-J-7 when you are holding A-2-3-5. You are definitely getting favorable odds to take one off here. The difference is you are realistically playing for a scooper, not just drawing for a runner-runner low.


Buzz