14-1 Implied PF

[J LU]

Could someone please review the attached post and tell me just how wrong probablily wise I am on making the following pre-flop call? I beleive that the probability of hitting any two unmatched cards is about 45-1. Not that it takes 2 pair to win with this, and not that 2 pair gives me the nuts, but just how far off base is this kind of call? I don't have a "winning" track record, but I do tend to make calls like this with multi-player pots. Thanks.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1209914&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1

[dogmeat]

You are a good 50% off making this call. The idea that any two cards should be played when you close the action is wrong, even with the pot out there. In this case, the real problem is when you catch a queen, which loses you even more money (most of the time, and when you don't also catch that lucky 7 at the same time). Save your money next time.

I won't even do any math, just sit at a table with Q-7 offsuit and deal out a few dozen flops to see how often you catch something - deal a few other hands if you want to see how easy it is to get trapped when you do.

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif