Zogby Battleground State Polls

[El Barto]

John Zogby has released ten new state polls from the battleground states. These are telephone polls, not the phony interactive polls he was using before.


COLORADO
Kerry 49%
Bush 45%

FLORIDA
Bush 49%
Kerry 46%

IOWA
Bush 47%
Kerry 45%

MICHIGAN
Kerry 52%
Bush 42%

MINNESOTA
Kerry 46%
Bush 45%

NEVADA
Bush 48%
Kerry 44%

NEW MEXICO
Bush 49%
Kerry 44%

OHIO
Bush 47%
Kerry 42%

PENNSYLVANIA
Kerry 47%
Bush 45%

WISCONSIN
Bush 48%
Kerry 45%

All these polls were done October 21-24.

[Non_Comformist]

Seems like pretty good news for Bush with him taking down both Ohio and Florida.

Intereresting in Colorado in only that it was my understadning that the move to change how the electoral votes in the that state are divided was mainly driven by Kerry supporters and it looks like it may end up costing him.

[El Barto]

Of course you can't put too much weight on any one poll.

Other Colorado polls:
Rocky Mountain News -- Bush 47, Kerry 42
Gallup -- Bush 51, Kerry 45
Mason-Dixon -- Bush 49, Kerry 43
Ciruli Associates -- Bush 48, Kerry 42

Other Florida Polls:
Insider Advantage -- Kerry 48, Bush 44
Washington Post -- Tied at 47
Survey USA -- Kerry 50, Bush 49
Mason-Dixon -- Bush 48, Kerry 45
University of North Florida -- Kerry 45.3, Bush 43.8
Quinnipiac -- Bush 45, Kerry 43

Other Ohio polls:
University of Cincinnati -- Kerry 48, Bush 46
ABC News -- Kerry 50, Bush 47
Rasmussen Reports -- Tied at 47
FoxNews -- Bush 47, Kerry 45
SurveyUSA -- Kerry 49, Bush 47
Mason-Dixon -- Bush 46, Kerry 45

[Non_Comformist]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course you can't put too much weight on any one poll.

Other Colorado polls:
Rocky Mountain News -- Bush 47, Kerry 42
Gallup -- Bush 51, Kerry 45
Mason-Dixon -- Bush 49, Kerry 43
Ciruli Associates -- Bush 48, Kerry 42

Other Florida Polls:
Insider Advantage -- Kerry 48, Bush 44
Washington Post -- Tied at 47
Survey USA -- Kerry 50, Bush 49
Mason-Dixon -- Bush 48, Kerry 45
University of North Florida -- Kerry 45.3, Bush 43.8
Quinnipiac -- Bush 45, Kerry 43

Other Ohio polls:
University of Cincinnati -- Kerry 48, Bush 46
ABC News -- Kerry 50, Bush 47
Rasmussen Reports -- Tied at 47
FoxNews -- Bush 47, Kerry 45
SurveyUSA -- Kerry 49, Bush 47
Mason-Dixon -- Bush 46, Kerry 45

[/ QUOTE ]


So I guess I'm back to thinking polls are pretty much worthless in close elections. Great I was all set to relax.

[El Barto]

The Horserace Blog (http://jaycost.blogspot.com/)

This blog just combines all the polls together to get a "Super Poll". The result is based on thousands of respondents in each state, but methodologies are mixed.



Ohio
Bush: 47.3%
Kerry: 46.1%
MOE: +/- 1.4%
(Based upon 7 Polls; 4,679 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 87.08%

Florida
Bush: 47.9%
Kerry: 45.8%
MOE: +/- 1.6%
(Based upon 5 Polls; 3,634 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 97.19%

Iowa
Bush: 48.0%
Kerry: 45.2%
MOE: +/- 2%
(Based upon 3 Polls; 2,026 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 96.49%

Wisconsin
Bush: 47.6%
Kerry: 45.6%
MOE: +/- 1.7%
(Based upon 5 Polls; 3,126 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 94.95%

New Mexico
Bush: 48.0%
Kerry: 45.3%
MOE: +/- 2.2%
(Based upon 3 Polls; 1,825 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 94.74%

Minnesota
Bush: 45.7%
Kerry: 46.9%
MOE: +/- 1.8%
(Based upon 4 Polls; 2,835 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 18.41%

Michigan
Bush: 44.9%
Kerry: 47.4$
MOE: +/- 1.7%
(Based upon 5 Polls; 3,236 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 2.17%

Nevada
Bush: 48.1%
Kerry: 43.2%
MOE: +/- 1.3%
(Based upon 4 Polls; 2,351 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 99.88%

Colorado
Bush: 48.3%
Kerry: 44.7%
MOE: +/- 1.9%
(Based upon 4 Polls; 2,496 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 99.45%

Pennsylvania
Bush: 45.7%
Kerry: 47.7%
MOE: +/- 1.6%
(Based upon 5 Polls; 3,654 Respondents)
Probability of Bush Lead: 3.75%

[tanda]

Nobody believes that CO number. Zogby has a CO Senate number out that is out of whack as well: Salazer +9. Salazer may be winning, but not by nine. Kerry has canceled his planned visit to CO later this week and pulled ads.

The Zogby polls confirm what the Mason-Dixon polls of last week indicated: that Bush wins a fairly comfortable win if the numbers do not change.

The state numbers are moving into line with the national numbers which show a durable Bush lead of 2-4 points.

Note that Hawaii and CT have new polls indicating they are close as well.

[tolbiny]

The polls are especially worthless in this race with a record number of newly registered voters. What demographics do they fit in, who they will vote for, how many of them wil actually vote, ect. Basically what will happen is that one or two of the polls will appear right on the money, and will get braggin rights for the next 4 years, while no one will be sure if their methodology was correct or if they just happened to get lucky. Since most people enjoy results oriented thinking they will assume that it was corredct and rely to heavily on that (or those) particular polls next election, where it is very likely that voter turnout will drop off severly (or at least registration) and there methods will be way off.

[El Barto]

This is what it looks like with the Zogby numbers:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct25.png

[anatta]

First time he has led in quite a while. Kerry has some momentum heading into final week.

[Matty]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

[anatta]

I see Pinny has Kerry at +131. It was +150 a few days ago. Missing explosives, Big Bill hits the road. The base has gotta love the first black Pres, recovering and all.

I am also really encouraged about an article I read which provides the good examples of how undecideds do break for challenger at better than 80% clip and the challengers numbers increase much more often from final polls than incumbant.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/10/22/1741/0082#readmore

There is no doubt this is going to be a high turnout. Carville said you know what you call a candidate who relies on new voters? A loser. But Rock the vote and all that other crap gotta bode well in a close raise with almost unprecedented interest. If I had to handicap this it'd be Bush -105 Kerry +105 (and thats only cause the cheatin' factor (e-vote, brother governor, Rove and the man keepin us down) favors Bush). Real close boys.

[GWB]

A weird day for polls:

Good news from Zogby
Bad news from Rasmussen
Great news from TIPP
Good news from Gallup


TIPP: Bush up by 8 points (http://www.tipponline.com/)


Gallup Poll: Bush has five point lead with likely voters (http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/25/national.poll/)

[anatta]

Gallop has been all over the map this year. Bush up by 15 before the debates, Kerry up by one after. Now they are saying its a dead heat among registered, but LV is Bush by 5? (That is down from 8 last week) I would like to see their methodology for this conclusion.

Zogby says undecided say they are 90 percent gonna vote and 80 percent want someone new.