Bleeding, or do I have him beat?

[Saborion]

MP2 raises 13 % of his hands preflop and is avg. aggressive postflop. BB likes to call to the river and folding there. Never seen him raise so far.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls.

River: (9 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
Now what? What about my play up until the river?

[Nate tha' Great]

Seems like a good spot for ye olde checke-calle. Only way you make money from a missed flush or gutshot draw, and I'm not 100% comfortable with folding to a raise. Those considerations outweigh the times that he'll call with a worse hand.

[Saborion]

One player, a non 2+:er who is suppose to be good, said he'd check-fold the flop. Now, I really can't see how someone who say something like that is a good player. Am I being too loose? Given that you didn't say anything about my preflop, flop and turn actions, I have to assume those streets was ok?

[Nightwish]

You played the hand well. Your friend who is suggesting that you check-fold the flop is either joking or is in fact weak-tight. In either case, don't listen to him.

And Nate is right about the river. Just check-call.

[Joe Tall]

You only action is to bet and fold to a raise. Sometimes I check the turn a fold to a bet-overcall but once you bet the turn, you have to follow w/a river bet as you are a severe dog by checking.

Go Sox!
-Joe Tall

[Nightwish]

I would be very uncomfortable folding to a raise here.

[Saborion]

Yes, but if the BB calls our bet and MP raise, then we should be able to safely fold? The same is true if the BB raise the river, no?

Since the BB happily calls to the river with just about anything, and since the MP is very unlikely to bluff here given that he's just avg. aggressive, don't we have a bet-fold on the river since we can expect him to call more hands than he'll bet, given the action so far?

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, but if the BB calls our bet and MP raise, then we should be able to safely fold? The same is true if the BB raise the river, no?


[/ QUOTE ]
Well, the BB will likely fold the river since he seems to have been doing this all night. So what do you do if you bet, BB folds, and MP raises? That's the situation I'm talking about where I don't like folding but I'm also wishing I hadn't bet.

[ QUOTE ]

Since the BB happily calls to the river with just about anything, and since the MP is very unlikely to bluff here given that he's just avg. aggressive, don't we have a bet-fold on the river since we can expect him to call more hands than he'll bet, given the action so far?

[/ QUOTE ]
My interpretation of "average aggressive" is that there's a decent chance he'll bet the river with his missed flush or straight (gutshot?) draw. But if you bet, I don't see him calling with any hand that you beat except for JJ/99.

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
My interpretation of "average aggressive" is that there's a decent chance he'll bet the river with his missed flush or straight (gutshot?) draw.

[/ QUOTE ]
Will this be true in a 3-handed pot?

[Lawrence Ng]

Like Nate said, check-call the river given your descriptions of the players.

[Joe Tall]

but if the BB calls our bet and MP raise, then we should be able to safely fold?

Most definately, yes.

The same is true if the BB raise the river, no?

It's closer but given your description, I'm sure we are no-good on the end here.

As for the non-river-bet crowd; I still stand on the other end. I believe the concept is from TOP, but maybe, I'm misunderstood as it is a heads-up on the end concept.

However, let's say you are going to lose 70% of the time here and I think you are more a severe of a dog. Let's assume that your opponent (mainly MP) will bet 70% of the time when checked to. Let's also assume that only one of your opponents will call (likely so given the reads).

EVbet = win - loss
EVbet = .3(1BB) - .7(1BB) = -.4BB

EVchck = checked through + win when he bets - lose when he bets
EVchck= .3(0BB) +.0(1BB) -.7(1BB)= -.7BB

One situation is the lesser evil than the other and this relies on the assumption we can fold to a raise. Which I feel we can.

Go Sox!
-Joe Tall

[hockey1]

[ QUOTE ]
You only action is to bet and fold to a raise. Sometimes I check the turn a fold to a bet-overcall but once you bet the turn, you have to follow w/a river bet as you are a severe dog by checking.

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense Joe, but this is crazy. The only added value to betting is the possibility that a weak ace will fold, which on Party 15 is a pretty damn low possibility. There are almost no hands that call you that you beat -- maybe some wacko with an 8 or JJ.

Easy check-call in the hope that the bet was somebody bluffing with a busted draw. Even easier fold to a raise.

[Joe Tall]

There are almost no hands that call you that you beat

Then why did we bet the turn?? My point is once you bet the turn you cannot check the river.

Go Sox!
-Joe Tall

[hockey1]

[ QUOTE ]
Then why did we bet the turn?? My point is once you bet the turn you cannot check the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are a few reasons, but by far the most important is that the T on the river makes a huge difference. Look at it this way, the opponents calling on the turn almost certainly have one of three holdings: (1) an ace, (2) a ten, (3) a draw. You're ahead of two of those three when you bet the turn. When the second ten falls on the river, you're now behind two of the three and number three isn't calling if you bet. You make the most and lose the least by check-calling.

[Joe Tall]

You make the most and lose the least by check-calling.

Maybe my Red-Sox hangover is getting to me but I think the results are Sab bet, BB folded and MP called w/99.

Go Sox!
-Joe Tall

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
There are almost no hands that call you that you beat

Then why did we bet the turn?? My point is once you bet the turn you cannot check the river.


[/ QUOTE ]
I disagree. You bet the turn for as simple of a reason as preventing your opponents from getting a free card for their draw.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Then why did we bet the turn?? My point is once you bet the turn you cannot check the river.


[/ QUOTE ]

On the turn, straight draws, flush draws or tens are a very likely range of hands for your opponents.

[Saborion]

I bet, the BB folded, MP3 called and flipped over AJo.

At the time I wasn't all that afraid of the BB. I thought I would be able to safely fold to a river raise in that spot, unless I bet, the BB folded and MP2 raised. That would suck.

Although I thought that if MP2 had a PP and had called all the way to the river, he'd call again. I actually thought he'd call with more hands than he'd bet, which is the reason I bet. Stupid. Check-calling is superior to bet-folding imo.

Thanks for the input.

[Thomsen]

a dog if he checks - why is that ?

He is a even bigger dog if he bets and then folds to a raise gving him 0 % chance of winning

[tilting]

what's SOP if he is raised on turn?

-either by BB, or by MP

first post =)