I'm A Poker Expert!

[charlie_t_jr]

This is the 1st time I've got all 8 questions right.

http://www.cgtv.com/games/column/102004/index.shtml

Suppose its a no brainer for those who have read SSH.

[Rudbaeck]

I'm a champ too. Guess it's kinda cheesy to do this after reading SSH and working hard on studying it. I'd probably have hit 3-4 right answers pre-SSH.

My short poker career can be divided in two. Pre and post SSH.

[Mikey]

the flop is T 9 x with one club and you have KJs of clubs.

On the turn falls a piece of cheese.

I'm taking the free card here, because that defeats the purpsose of raising on the flop to an improving turn card.
It ruins my effective odds and the purpose of my flop raise.

I'm essentially raising the flop to see 2 cards.

Also. There is almost a null chance of him laying down on the turn if he bet the flop.

What hands do you think he'll fold here on the turn.

I don't think the bet is correct.

What do others think?

[Ed Miller]

Also. There is almost a null chance of him laying down on the turn if he bet the flop.

If this were true, then betting would be wrong. But it isn't true.

[Cosimo]

I got one wrong, but I feel OK to admit it. I made the right play but for the wrong reasons. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

These get updated monthly, right?

[Mikey]

Ed the reason why I say this is because he bet the flop....

He bet the flop on a T 9 5 board and called a raise.

Now on the turn falls a 3. with 2 suits.

Its almost highly unlikey he's folding here and not seeing the river.

If he had checked...... the flop and you bet, then you can make an argument for betting the turn because the chances that he folds maybe be a tiny bit higher than null.

Would I be wrong to take a free river card and not bet the turn? How much of an error is this?

[Ed Miller]

Its almost highly unlikey he's folding here and not seeing the river.

I'm sorry Mikey, but that's just not true. I can't prove it to you other than to say, "Go try it out," but often the flop bettor will have a small pair or ace-high (especially online) and will fold it on the turn.

Frankly, I don't understand when people say stuff like this, because it flies totally in the face of all of my experience. People fold all the time on the turn after betting the flop. I'd suggest you watch online games for a while, note who bets the flop, and watch to see how often that player folds on the turn and river. You'll find that it happens frequently. Not all the time or even the majority of the time, but it's quite common.

Would I be wrong to take a free river card and not bet the turn? How much of an error is this?

If more than one player had called you on the flop, taking the free card would probably be better in general. So against one player taking a free card can be no disaster. But you will often win this hand without a showdown, so it is clearly right to bet again.

[Ed Miller]

These get updated monthly, right?

Every four weeks now... so slightly more often than monthly. This one just went up a couple of days ago. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Mikey]

"I'm sorry Mikey, but that's just not true. I can't prove it to you other than to say, "Go try it out," but often the flop bettor will have a small pair or ace-high (especially online) and will fold it on the turn."

I agree with this statement although I believe its being taken out of context when the flop is T 9 5r. This flop although it is rainbow hits many type of card combinations. That is why I feel it is essential to take the 2 free cards with the flop raise. You have to look at the board texture.

Some flop boards give you more leverage but with this board specifically because it touches many hand combinations I feel in my experience that by betting the turn almost defeats the purpose of the flop raise.

"People fold all the time on the turn after betting the flop."

This statement is not 100% true and I believe you can agree with me on that but, the percentage of the time when someone does fold on the turn is not when the board is coordiated like this and you have been bet into on the flop being the preflop agressor.

[sublime]

. Ten seconds worth of math would have saved you from making a terrific mistake.

as opposed to a terrible mistake? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
You check the hand history (a luxury of online play)

[/ QUOTE ]

I think everyone on here who hates the IWTSTH rule will love this line. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

i love this column Ed does. It's about the most thorough exercises out there. He also explains the moves fantastically.

It's also a good tool to use when you're on a bad run and getting the hell kicked out of you. It can help keep your thinking on track when you may be doubting yourself.

b

[Punker]

"Raising has some merits, but for it to work in your favor, your opponent has to have a better hand than yours, and he must fold it."

What if he will call with a worse hand? Does raising then have no merit? My read on this imaginary player was AQ on the turn.

[Masquerade]

I'm with Mikey on this one. No-one comes out early betting a raised multi-way flop before the raiser with Ace high or a small pair and then calls a raise! If he was on some sort of draw or small pair he'd let the raiser bet it and call if it wasnt raised.

You have to put him on top pair, or maybe two pair at this point. Even if he does just have Ace high or a small pair he's still ahead of you and will win 75% of the time. The pot by now has got large, and its heads up. Its extremely unlikely that he's going to fold on the turn given his earlier play.

[B Dids]

He will. He does. I've folded him before. I think most of us who have a meaningful number of hands played online have made this player fold in this type of situation.

[Mikey]

Responses like this need to be addressed so that people aren't taking your response as a likely option.

Most players won't limp with AQo, so therefore you can eliminate this hand.

[Punker]

The player in question raised preflop.

[Mikey]

for the first hand yes.... I thought you meant the hand where we were having the discussion on.

[Masquerade]

Ive done a quick 'back of the envelope' calculation and found that for this case you need them to fold with the better hand [and they wont often have a worse hand] about one time in twelve.

That isnt that frequently - and I suppose someone with Ax suited where the x paired the board might bet the flop, call the raise, and then fold on the turn when an A or x didnt come.

[Gigabet]

i must play too tight, i have never played Qs8s outside the blinds.

[Ed Miller]

i must play too tight, i have never played Qs8s outside the blinds.

You're in a blind this hand.

[Ed Miller]

Ive done a quick 'back of the envelope' calculation and found that for this case you need them to fold with the better hand [and they wont often have a worse hand] about one time in twelve.

That isnt that frequently...

This is the point of the question. You need to know that the guy doesn't have to fold very often to make betting correct.

[Gigabet]

No wonder I suck at poker, i have no observational skills. Still wouldn't call Q8 there, if i am calling, i am raising to buy the button at the very least, but that is when I know the table pretty well, not in a 2/4 loose limit game.

[1800GAMBLER]

It "cleans up" your overcard outs. That is, by knocking out a player or two, you increase the chance that you will win the pot by catching a king or jack.

• Since you have position on the bettor, it might buy you a free card on fourth street (if you want it).

• It could help you win the pot without making your hand. Just because someone bets the flop doesn't mean he is committed to showing his hand down. People bet weak pairs and draws all the time. Raising will help you steal the pot if that's what Dangermaus is betting.

That's from the KJs hand.

2 out those 3 really don't appply to loose low limit games.

The flop was T93raindow and you have KJ with backdoor flush draw.

1. Cleaning up outs? 9J 9Ks aren't folding, the only hands you are knocking out are random overcards which would have a turn redraw on you when you make pair yet those not worth much. These hands would have also folded to your turn bet when you make pair.

2. Free card is a great benefit.

3. Win the pot unimproved? So many limpers seeing the limper-loving-flop?

No meantion of you may be ahead? Even though he is likely to either checkcall or checkraise with a draw.

[scrub]

After my really bad run in the 15, I played 10,000 hands of PP 3/6 to get my head straightened out. So, fresh from the trenches:

[ QUOTE ]

3. Win the pot unimproved? So many limpers seeing the limper-loving-flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. If the flop raise bumps the rest of the guys off, which it does a not insignificant amount of the time, a turn bet will sometimes fold EP bettor. For whatever reason, EP betting into the PFR on a flop like this with rags that missed it or a 3 that they change their mind about calling down with seems to be a pretty popular play. You are also going to get hands like 77-44, 22 to fold some of the time when they would have called the whole way down for one bet at a time.

[ QUOTE ]

2. Free card is a great benefit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, but because an EP bet is so meaningless in these games from many players--and because a turn checkraise is so unheard of from most players--I tend to bet this turn again if the flop raise gets it heads up.

[ QUOTE ]
1. Cleaning up outs? 9J 9Ks aren't folding, the only hands you are knocking out are random overcards which would have a turn redraw on you when you make pair yet those not worth much. These hands would have also folded to your turn bet when you make pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cleaning up one pair outs seems like it's not the biggest concern with these cards in this situation. Sometimes you are going to blow AJ or KQ off of the pot, though. You're also going to get people who would have turned a pair with a2c to fold many times when EP bettor is on total crap. It's certainly a benefit of the raise, especially blowing off 6 or more outs drawing against you the times you're ahead or going to fold EP when behind.

scrub

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
'a turn bet will sometimes fold EP bettor'

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't believe this. The party 15/30 isn't THAT loose and even in that AK AQ AJ calls you down.

[ QUOTE ]
'If the flop raise bumps the rest of the guys off, which it does a not insignificant amount of the time'

[/ QUOTE ]

That is true but it doesn't matter if the above is true.

Of course given the other benefits just having the possibility that hell, the raiser may have KQ and everyone else has Ax Kx (x = missed) low pocket pairs.

[ QUOTE ]
'Sometimes you are going to blow AJ or KQ off of the pot'

[/ QUOTE ]

On the flop for one bet, never. That's the bet we are discussing here. The only times it applies to the turn is when everyone else folds and then i think it's unlikely KQ folds his gutshot or AJ folds.

[ QUOTE ]
'You're also going to get people who would have turned a pair with a2c to fold many times when EP bettor is on total crap'

[/ QUOTE ]

These are both unlikely cases the chance 1. You have EP beat * 2. A player sees a flop with A2o hits pair then folds i think is very slim.

It's not that i disagree with the fold it's just that i was shocked with the follow up saying it's a 'very clear' raise and that cleaning up outs was the number 1 reason.

[WEASEL45]

You're in the BB. how can you buy the button?

[MicroBob]

Ed is correct here (duh).

Players fold far more often then many tighter players think.

He could have 88, AJ, whatever....and at that point decide that your hand must be better than his.

It happens a LOT.

[1800GAMBLER]

... yet it also seems like i must be wrong if i'm disagreeing with Ed. Help Ed?

[Mikey]

I can't prove it to you other than to say, "Go try it out," but often the flop bettor will have a small pair or ace-high (especially online) and will fold it on the turn.

Hey Ed, I just want you to know that I have been out there and have been trying and you know what........ you're right it is working.
Thanks for the expert advice.

*Mikey

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
Frankly, I don't understand when people say stuff like this, because it flies totally in the face of all of my experience. People fold all the time on the turn after betting the flop. I'd suggest you watch online games for a while, note who bets the flop, and watch to see how often that player folds on the turn and river. You'll find that it happens frequently. Not all the time or even the majority of the time, but it's quite common.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can we agree that this changes fairly drastically when we reach middle and high stakes?

Sorry to muddy the waters, but I can see that you are right, in many games.

But in the vast majority of the games I play in, this guy's flop bet would generally mean something more than an underpair, especially with several players taking the flop.

This would not change the flop raise, of course. I just think it would make some argument for avoiding a trap and/or value betting HIS hand for him on the turn.

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if he does just have Ace high or a small pair he's still ahead of you and will win 75% of the time. The pot by now has got large, and its heads up. Its extremely unlikely that he's going to fold on the turn given his earlier play.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're wrong here. Even though the player making this flop bet at you with ace-high or a small pair is aggressive by definition, that doesn't make him an imbecile. When you raise the flop, getting it headsup, and he calls with his cheese, then the turn is a total miss, these are precisely the types of hands that you need to bet the turn against.

This, I imagine, is exactly why Ed so adamantly requires a bet on this turn at a small-stakes online holdem table.

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
You're in the BB. how can you buy the button?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you posted after the button.

But it's still just a call, in all but the most extreme cases.

[dogmeat]

I'm no expert. I missed #7 where Ed says "expect your opponents to fold relatively frequently". Sometimes I bet again on the turn, sometimes not. The games I am playing ($5/$10 and below) do NOT see the other players folding frequently. However, that is the beauty of the games, and why they can be beaten.

I'd still like to know where the games are that Ed talks about - six to the flop, weak passive, and willing to fold to a single bet or a raise on the turn or river with no showdown. Anybody know?

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif