Intentionally walking Beltran was dumb

[Nate tha' Great]

Discuss. I think you try and get ahead in the count against him and then bail if you fall behind 2-0 or 3-1.

[Michael Davis]

I think you should almost always do this, excepting Bonds.

-Michael

[ThaSaltCracka]

do you even want to give him a pitch to hit though? This is the guy who hit a HR off of Tavarez that wasn't even a strike. I shudder to think what he would have done with anything over the plate there.

[Losing all]

I dunno. The guy is breaking records he set the day before, every day. Easy walk.

[nolanfan34]

I'd much rather have a righty/righty matchup than face Beltran. Bagwell hasn't hit for as much power this season, with his injury problems, I don't see any reason to even throw a strike to Beltran and see it deposited in the right field seats.

I think LaRussa made the right call, it didn't work, but I still think it was right.

[Sundevils21]

maybe. but don't throw strikes to begin with. If you can somehow manage to get ahead of him by throwing garbage then keep going. definatly bail out if it's 2-0.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
do you even want to give him a pitch to hit though? This is the guy who hit a HR off of Tavarez that wasn't even a strike. I shudder to think what he would have done with anything over the plate there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Izzy is a better pitcher than Tavarez. I trust him to work the corners or try and get Beltran to bite on some breaking stuff.

[Clarkmeister]

I give you two items to consider.

1. Every Cardinal fan in the universe wanted to walk Beltran.

2. Every Astro fan in the universe wanted to see Izzy pitch to him.

I rest my case.

[ThaSaltCracka]

Izzy is better, but the pitch Beltran hit off of Tavarez was in a perfect location. I have only seen Vlad hit a HR on such a bad pitch.

Beltran is to hot right now to even think about pitching to in that situation.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
I trust him to work the corners or try and get Beltran to bite on some breaking stuff.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is another reason I think LaRussa walked Beltran. Izzy hasn't been sharp working the corners tonight, and if he makes a mistake pitch, he probably would rather make it against Bagwell than Beltran.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Beltran is to hot right now to even think about pitching to in that situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I should have prefaced this by saying that I don't believe in streaks. Beltran is just running well. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Nate tha' Great]

The average fan overestimates the extent to which the outcome of the previous 50 at bats will have on at bat #51.

[ QUOTE ]
I give you two items to consider.

1. Every Cardinal fan in the universe wanted to walk Beltran.

2. Every Astro fan in the universe wanted to see Izzy pitch to him.

I rest my case.

[/ QUOTE ]

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
The average fan overestimates the extent to which the outcome of the previous 50 at bats will have on at bat #51.

[/ QUOTE ]

You calling us average fans? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I think the average sabermatrician doesn't put enough stock in players being in "the zone", because it's not something that's quantifiable by an Excel spreadsheet.

I follow saber stats closely, but even just as a golfer, I've had days where I was just "on". I couldn't explain it, but there have been times I just have extreme confidence standing over the ball, where I know exactly where it's headed. Other days I have a feeling of doom, like I don't know how to even swing the club. I can only imagine an elite athlete experiences this as well, and I'd say the way Beltran has been hitting, he's in the zone at the moment.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the average sabermatrician doesn't put enough stock in players being in "the zone", because it's not something that's quantifiable by an Excel spreadsheet.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is possible to investigate whether streak hitting exists and every study that I've seen suggests that it doesn't.

I would consider recent performance a little bit more stongly in the case of a *pitcher*, because I think very small injuries and/or mechanical changes can make a relatively large difference in results.

[ QUOTE ]
I follow saber stats closely, but even just as a golfer, I've had days where I was just "on". I couldn't explain it, but there have been times I just have extreme confidence standing over the ball, where I know exactly where it's headed. Other days I have a feeling of doom, like I don't know how to even swing the club. I can only imagine an elite athlete experiences this as well, and I'd say the way Beltran has been hitting, he's in the zone at the moment.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I think it's more likely that an amateur athlete truly does experience more turbulence in his day-to-day performance levels than a professional athlete does. A professional athelete is a professional prceisely because he is able to execute to his upmost capacity a very high percentage of the time.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Beltran is to hot right now to even think about pitching to in that situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I should have prefaced this by saying that I don't believe in streaks. Beltran is just running well. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I do Nate, but then again I also believe in Santa Clause and that Poker Stars is rigged.

[nolanfan34]

I know what you're saying and all, and I've read most of what BP has printed on the subject over the last couple of years. I just still think mental thought can affect the moment at hand, and for Izzy, he may have been more comfortable pitching to Bagwell.

I guess in the end, I look at that sitation as one where people on this site debate about playing a certain hand UTG, or raising, or whatever. Usually the arguments that go for days involve comparing plays that are probably very slightly different EV in the long run, and are neither inheirently "right" or "wrong". Maybe Beltran vs. Bagwell is one of those situations.

Nate, I know we can agree that hitting Ensberg and putting the tying run on was really, really bad.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
I know what you're saying and all, and I've read most of what BP has printed on the subject over the last couple of years. I just still think mental thought can affect the moment at hand, and for Izzy, he may have been more comfortable pitching to Bagwell.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do think psychology plays a pretty important role in *pitching*, so if Izzy is scared of Beltran for whatever reason, that could impact things. Your closer is supposed to be fearless, though. It's also possible that streak hitting plays a larger role given the heightened stress of the post-season; I don't think anybody has looked at that.

[ QUOTE ]
I guess in the end, I look at that sitation as one where people on this site debate about playing a certain hand UTG, or raising, or whatever. Usually the arguments that go for days involve comparing plays that are probably very slightly different EV in the long run, and are neither inheirently "right" or "wrong". Maybe Beltran vs. Bagwell is one of those situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I just wanted to get a debate going really. Everybody was making the IBB out to be a slam dunk, and I don't think that it was.

[ThaSaltCracka]

Kevin Kennedy says it was automatic. I am inclines to listen to him over you.

[David]

I really really wanted them to pitch to Beltran.

It's like playing scared poker, scared pitching, LaRusa is no dummy. He did the right thing. His job at that moment was to force someone other than Beltran to beat them. At this time, for whatever reason, Beltran is as good as anyone who ever played the game. By tomorrow he may be a chump, but for now he is a god.

Reference Clarkmiester's post above. Says it all.

[andyfox]

At least he didn't have two strikes on him.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
At least he didn't have two strikes on him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Glad you brought this up. Anyone notice that TLR had Izzy pitch to Berkman with a 0-0 count today and 1st base open while he intentionally walked him with a 2-2 count on Monday? Doofus. Of course, he'd argue that he was right both times.

[jerome baker]

wow. im probably the only person that agrees w/ you on this one.
lifetime: bel has a worse average vs. izzy than bags. (although its only 7 abs vs. 15 abs)

people thought int. walking bel was a good move cuz most people's short term memory is a lot "stronger" than long term.

baseball's "politically" correct play was to walk bel. by the i mean, if larussa didnt int.
walk bel, and bel had a good ab, larussa would have got a lot of crap.

[jerome baker]

"for Izzy, he may have been more comfortable pitching to Bagwell"

maybe, but good pt.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
bel has a worse average vs. izzy than bags. (although its only 7 abs vs. 15 abs)

[/ QUOTE ]

This gives me a chance to break out my favorite overused 2+2 phrase:

I deem your sample size INSUFFICIENT

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[andyfox]

Well he was righter this time. They only score the tieing run instead of the winning run.

[astroglide]

the members of my office that weren't at the game today were huddled around the trinitron yelling, "WALK HIM"