Playing small pairs late in the tournament

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

I am playing in a PS micro buy-in tourney last night -- about 2000 players started, now down to final three tables.

I am in CO and have a healthy but not huge stack (say 125K, in the top 10).

Blinds are 4K/8K.

Big stack is UTG+1 with more than double my stack.

I am dealt 66, Big stack raises to 24K, everyone else folds.

What's the move?

[trumpman84]

I'd push or fold..not something I'd want to call and play post flop barring the 1/8 chance I flop a set. Most of the time if you call, you're going to be check/folding most any flop and that's just throwing away 24,000.

I'm leaning toward fold...I don't like to enter a raised pot without a higher pair or AK, and I don't like pushing without a better holding, but push by all means if you think he'll lay down..if you think you'll get a call, you don't want to gamble away all your chips on a coin flip (or a big dog)

[RobGW]

Fold. IF you are ahead it is not by much. You can only be confident if you hit your set which is a long shot. If you don't hit your set, your 66's dont figure to hold up. You dont want to risk 1/4 of your stack on this. I have had the same thing happen to me lately and everytime I call or reraise I get burned. To me it is just not worth it.

[TheDrone]

Easy fold. I'd call the 24K if it was an all-in shortstack raise, but that's about it. Pushing here against a huge stack is suicide without a very good read.

[BradL]

Easy fold, you are a comfortable stack, not huge but you can afford to wait for a better time. Unless I'm shortstacked im looking to enter the pot with small pocketpairs only when I can do so cheeply. Furthermore what do you believe him to be raising with? certainly not 22 33 44 55 so you are at best a coinflip and quite possibly very much the worst of it.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold, you are a comfortable stack, not huge but you can afford to wait for a better time. Unless I'm shortstacked im looking to enter the pot with small pocketpairs only when I can do so cheeply. Furthermore what do you believe him to be raising with? certainly not 22 33 44 55 so you are at best a coinflip and quite possibly very much the worst of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I did fold -- but I thought about trying to push this big stack off his hand. He had been raising pre-flop quite often and had showed down some very mediocre hands (e.g. Q9s, A6o). I hung around for awhile after this hand but the cards got ice cold (how many times can I be dealt T2o?) and ended up in 14th.

[davidross]

If you feel you can push himoff his hand then go ahead and push all-in, but not because you have 66, any 2 will do if he's willing to lay down.

[donny5k]

Has he been (a) folding to re-raises, (b) calling re-raises with hands like Q9s, or (c) has noone taken a stand against him (besides calling his raise)?
I think if the answer is (b) or (c) this is a clear fold. Only push if you have folding equity.

The fact that you are out of the blinds might actually make it more beneficial to take a stand here. It will look like a hand like 66 or Ax if you push out of the blinds, but if you reraise allin CO he will most likely think he is a big underdog if he has a marginal hand. Granted, he probably won't think about it that much and just call with his big stack and you'll be in a coinflip most of the time. But I think being in the CO makes this a better opportunity because it never looks like a resteal.

[betgo]

If he is making a lot of loose raises, it may be worth pushing. There are 3 likely possibilities: he folds, he calls with 2 overcards (which gives you a slight advantage pplus some pot odds), or he calls with an overpair (in which case you are in trouble). If he is raising with junk, he will probably fold, but he probably won't lay down a reasonable raising hand. You gain about 30K if he folds, gain on average about 15K is he has overcards, and lose about 70K if he has an overpair. It seems like he is a lot more likely to have junk than an overpair, so it is probably good to push. Against someone who was playing solidly, I would fold.

[betgo]

I wouldn't make this move with any two cards, because there is a good chance you will be called. I might push here with something like KQ or T8s as well as 66, because although you are probably an underdog if you are called with those hand, you are unlikely to be a 4-1 underdog like with 66.

[davidross]

I wouldn't make the move at all, i was just commenting on the fact that he said he thought the guy would lay it down. If that's the case, who cares what u have.

[betgo]

Your opponent would be getting decent pot odds if you push and he wants to keep initimifating the table, so I think there is a good chance he would call. Therefore, I wouldn't push with 72o.

[Roman]

his pot odds arent that good... plus hero has a healthy stack which is likely to put quite a dent in the big stack.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

[ QUOTE ]
If you feel you can push himoff his hand then go ahead and push all-in, but not because you have 66, any 2 will do if he's willing to lay down.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not sure I agree with the "any 2 will do" logic. If I raise him big, I am certainly hoping for a fold. If I don't expect him to fold at least 2/3 of the time, I don't think I would push here. I was not that confident he would fold to a big raise -- that is why I folded.

With any significant chance of a call, I want to have a hand that is likely to be at least a coin flip (as I would expect to be here) or better. I would only raise with "any 2" where it was a near certainty that the big stack would fold.

Am I wrong here?

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

[ QUOTE ]
Has he been (a) folding to re-raises, (b) calling re-raises with hands like Q9s, or (c) has noone taken a stand against him (besides calling his raise)?
I think if the answer is (b) or (c) this is a clear fold. Only push if you have folding equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

He had not been folding all the time when re-raised -- and sometimes the hands he called with were mediocre (K8s types). He got lucky on a few of these.

[ QUOTE ]

The fact that you are out of the blinds might actually make it more beneficial to take a stand here. It will look like a hand like 66 or Ax if you push out of the blinds, but if you reraise allin CO he will most likely think he is a big underdog if he has a marginal hand. Granted, he probably won't think about it that much and just call with his big stack and you'll be in a coinflip most of the time. But I think being in the CO makes this a better opportunity because it never looks like a resteal.

[/ QUOTE ]

He had not called a re-raise as big as my stack (there was no one else with that size stack at the table) -- I assume he would have thought about it some more, but I was not confident.

In fact, by the time I was eliminated from the tourney, his stack had suffered greatly from his loose play. Unfortunately, my cards went ice cold after this hand -- a few rounds of hands like 74, T2, 63 and I was out before the final table.

[davidross]

If you think he will call even 1/3 of the time I would fold 66 in a flash. Your original post seemed to indicate that you thought he was playing a lot of hands and would fold if played back at unless he had a premium hand. If that is true, then any two will do, but pairs 99 and under are what I consider desperation all-in hands, kind of a last resort.

[DyessMan89]

I would fold. You only have two options IMO: raise all-in or fold ... and since you have so many chips and going all-in isnt needed, folding would be the bettr option.

However, if the big stack appears to be a real loose player, raising might be a good move.