A7 in the BB against a TAG -- stop and go

[MHarris]

UTG+2 is ~18% VP$IP, 8.5% PFR. Flop AF is 15.00 and turn AF is 12.00.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.
I suspect there's a variety of hands UTG+1 will raise the flop with. However, he would've raised PF with many of them. Among the possibilities I considered: Axs, KJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif, KT /images/graemlins/spade.gif, KQ(?), QJ, or medium /images/graemlins/spade.gif connectors.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, SB folds, Hero...?
Call? Seems OK, I'm getting 7.5:1 against a very aggressive opponent. Anyone fold here against this type of opponent?

[dejableu]

I strongly doubt that a TAG is raising that flop with KQ or QJ. And even if it's a possibility, there is no way he raises again on the turn.

The turn also probably rules out medium /images/graemlins/spade.gif connectors. You're probably up against AJ or AT, perhaps a set of 2s. I think he would have raised preflop with AQ so you may very well be good if you hit a 7 on the river. You're getting 7.5: 1 on your bet (or 12 percent of the pot), and the odds of hitting a 7 are 7 percent. I probably fold. It's extremely unlikely that he calls UTG+2 with a worse A than A7.

[lil']

UTG+2 is ~18% VP$IP, 8.5% PFR. Flop AF is 15.00 and turn AF is 12.00.

This could be Chinese for all I know. Pokertracker takes all the fun out of the game.

Anyway, on to the hand. Your read is that he is very tight, no? So I think you can lay this one down. Against a loose-aggressive type I may be more apt to showdown.

[garyc8]

I am a TAG and if I was the guy UTG+2 your hand would as dead as Elvis. If he really is a TAG I put him on something like AT suited.

[InchoateHand]

ATs, AJo, 22 are the only hands I can see him raising you on the turn when no draw comes in. I think you can fold here if your read is correct and your PT stats are substantial.

[Entity]

If he really is a TAG, then wouldn't he raise ATs? Would he limp UTG+2 with ATo?

A2s/A8s seem possible too, I guess, if it's a loose game (doesn't look like it from preflop action, but whatever). ATo/AJo seem possible.

Fold is probably good.

[garyc8]

Personally, in this spot (UTG+2), I fold ATo, Raise AJo. I will, however sometimes limp with ATs or AJs. With a big suited hand I don't mind if many players call. W/ AJo I want to thin the field.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally, in this spot (UTG+2), I fold ATo, Raise AJo. I will, however sometimes limp with ATs or AJs. With a big suited hand I don't mind if many players call. W/ AJo I want to thin the field.

[/ QUOTE ]
I raise ATs and AJs because my equity is so good, multiway or not. I don't mind if many players call when I have AA (I'll still win 30% of the time 10-handed, and 30% of large pots are great), but I still raise it because my equity is so large.

Rob

[MHarris]

The program code-looking numbers I posted basically mean: UTG+1 plays tight and aggressive preflop and almost hyper-aggressive postflop. I should have made it a point to emphasize just how aggressive this player is postflop.

[Alobar]

am I the only one who thinks an AF of 15 and 12 is ungodly insane high??

I dont like the stop and go here. I dont see a TAG raising for a free card in this spot given the board, so he likely has a hand. Id be more inclined to just check/call. But once you bet and he pops you I think you can safely let this one go. If indeed your notes are worthwhile

[bisonbison]

am I the only one who thinks an AF of 15 and 12 is ungodly insane high??

It's probably because his sample size is roughly 10 hands postflop.

[MHarris]

11, Bison. Get it right. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[PokerNoob]

Is ~18% enough for him to open a crappy suited ace from UTG+2? You're ahead of only 6, 5, 4 &amp; 3 if so. Same with the spade draw. KJ maybe. How about 22? You also have SB calling two cold. If you feel like calling him down, maybe you should let him have his free card, but I don't think he takes it. You can't worry about SB.