Hey, I got a free showdown...

[AliasMrJones]

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: AliasMrJones is CO with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">AliasMrJones raises</font>, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (5.40 SB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">AliasMrJones raises</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">AliasMrJones bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: (6.70 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, AliasMrJones checks.

Final Pot: 6.70 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 6.70 BB, between AliasMrJones and UTG+1.</font>

UTG+1 was basic L/P with the fish icon. Likey? No-likey? Comments?

[jrobb83]

If my opponent is the fish icon I'm betting that river 100% of the time.

Even passive opponents will bet with less than an ace heads up there.

[J.R.]

Having the K of hearts makes the flop play better, but fish like to limp with Ax and passive players don't typically bet flush draws (or hands worse than KQ) into preflop raisers on A high boards (but aggressive players do), and given you have the K /images/graemlins/heart.gif its somewhat more likely that they don't have the flush draw than otherwise (maybe not much more likely, but the nut flush draw might be more inclined to play aggressive on this flop than a lesser draw, and Khxh may be a more common open-limping hand than other suited combinations).

Against a passive player I don't like your line that much, as the pot is small (5sbs on the flop), so you are risking 2 big bets to win 4 big bets if you are right and your hand holds up (a flush draw isn't a big dog on the flop, even though you hold the K /images/graemlins/heart.gif), so the passive player has to have a flush draw or worse hand more than half the time (the flush draw or other worse hand will improve and beat you some of the time). Not sure my math is right (I think its close) but my feel is you need a fairly aggressive player to make this play correct.

But if this type of player can bet the flop with a worse hand often enough, I like your line.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]

If my opponent is the fish icon I'm betting that river 100% of the time.

Even passive opponents will bet with less than an ace heads up there.



[/ QUOTE ]

Betting this river is terrible. Do you expect a worse king to call often enough for it to have value? If not, what other worse hands are calling?

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you expect a worse king to call often enough for it to have value? If not, what other worse hands are calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

A variety of hands could call my bet that bet out on the flop. A worse queen, a flush draw that paired up on the turn or river, or a medium pocket pair. Even a passive player tends to bet more hands heads up. And some very loose players will even call with K high here. If you take this line I think you have to bet the river. Loose players love to call. I disagree that you can narrow the hands he could bet the flop down to either an ace or a flush draw.

[joker122]

Very read dependent. I'd fold the flop agaianst *most* players.

[joker122]

What do you think his opponent has hero on? The most typical raising hands are big aces. This flop bet looks alot like a weak ace that's testing the waters. I can maybe see an argument for the line hero took which included showing down his hand, but a river bet is just bad.

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think his opponent has hero on? The most typical raising hands are big aces. This flop bet looks alot like a weak ace that's testing the waters. I can maybe see an argument for the line hero took which included showing down his hand, but a river bet is just bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

The opponent here doesn't have hero on any hand. He is a loose/bad player and likely not really thinking about what you have. He just sees that he has Ax, a flush draw, or a pocket pair and hopes that you fold when he bets on the flop.

If he only will bet the flop with Ax and a flush draw than the correct play is folding the flop. If you think his range of hands is greater than that, which by default you are saying by raising the flop, then I think that a river bet is in order. He will call you with virtually all the hands he bet the flop with (even a flush draw if he picked up a pair or has a king). I think that over 50% of the time he calls a river bet, given the above, you will have his hand beat.

I may be wrong, but certaintly think it's close enough so that a river bet isn't terrible. If a river bet is terrible against this opponent, then fold on the flop.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
The opponent here doesn't have hero on any hand. He is a loose/bad player and likely not really thinking about what you have.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Were you at the table and picked up a read?

[ QUOTE ]
He just sees that he has Ax, a flush draw, or a pocket pair and hopes that you fold when he bets on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well Ax beats hero. I don't see a pocket pair calling down with an ace on board. The only legitimate thing you've mentioned is a flush draw that picked up a pair because at that point in the hand the pot has become semi big and he might make a crying call. This is possibility is almost neglible though.

[ QUOTE ]
If a river bet is terrible against this opponent, then fold on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly.

[mikeyvegas]

I play it the same. I beleive the suggestion of folding the flop is bad bordering on terrible. 6.5 outs on the flop if hero is behind getting 6.4:1.

[J.R.]

Mike.E,

If hero is behind on the flop to Ax (where x&lt;Q), hero has 5.5 outs (2 Queens, 3 Kings, and .5 for the back door flush). Hero is getting 6.4-1 to call the flop bet. Assuming opponent has Ax, there are 45 unknown cards. Hero needs just under 8-1 in strict pot odds to call the flop bet, but there are some implied odds so its close, but its not a clear call against a passive opponent who may often have a hand better than the Ax mentioned above (e.g. AK, two pair or a set) when betting this flop and is unlikely to have bet into the preflop raiser on an A high board with a hand worse than the Ax mentioned above. But either way, if hero is behind and is not improved by the turn, he should fold.


To Alias and everyone,

But hero did not play the hand as if he were behind and drawing. Hero raised the flop and bet the turn with the intention of checking behind (unless he improved or was played back at I would assume). So hero is risking 2 big bets (2sbs on the flop and 1 BB on the turn) to win about 4.5 BBs (about 5 sbs preflop, with the opponent putting in 2 sbs on the flop and 1 BB on the turn).

Assumptions

Because the opponent is passive, I am going to assume the opponent doesn't bet any worse hand other than a flush draw (maybe that's erroneous, but this is getting complicated). I'm just tyring to get a feel for how often this opponent needs to have a worse hand for hero's line to be profitable (this is pretty rough).

Scenarios

If hero is ahead of a flush draw on the flop, hero will be outdrawn roughly 1/3rd of the time (I believe this is close, because sometimes opponent will have a pair and a flush draw, which kinda counteracts hero's backdoor flush and the fact hero holds one of the flush outs). So hero wins 4.5 BBs twice and loses 2 BBs once*, for total of plus 7 BBs.

If hero is behind to Ax, here will improve to the best hand a around 1/5th of the time (hero will improve more frequently than this but the oppoent will also have the chance to improve as well). So 4 times hero loses 2 BBs, and one time hero wins 4.5 Bbs**, for a loss of 3.5 Bbs.

Its also possible hero is behind 2 pair or a set, in which case hero will rarely improve to win, so lets say hero loses just under 2 BBs in this scenario (it also reasonable that the opponent, who is passive, slows down and does not 3-bet the flop or lead the turn and give hero a chance to get way from his hand).

Conclusion

So, if my rough guesstimates are correct, hero's line is plus ev even if the opponent has a flush draw less than half the time, and approaches breakeven if the opponent has a flush draw somewhere around 30% of the time (and this is less if opponent is fairly aggressive and will bet the flop and pay off the flop raise and turn bet with more worse hands than the flush draw, e.g. Qx where x&lt;K).

Application

To state the obvious, the more passive and starightforward the opponent, the more I like calling the flop and folding toa turn bet unimproved, but the more aggresisve the opponent, the more I like hero's line. I would guess an oppoent who bets a flush draw or other worse hand than KQ about 30% of the time into a pfr on an AQ2 board is fairly anomalous, but having a feel for how common this type of opponent is the key question for me. Maybe guys with postflop aggression factors over 2.5 do this, but that's where mine is and I don't often bet in this spot with a flush draw in to a TAG, which is what I presume hero is. If my guesstimates are right, against what % of opponents is hero's line the right play?

I have a headache and have lots of other stuff to do, but this hand has been haunting me. Where am I wrong?




*hero may lose more than 2 BBs if the turn is a flush card and hero bets and gets check-raised by a made flush (or if oppeont has xh2h and imoprives to 2 pair or trips), but if hero checks behind with flush outs when the turn is a flush card, hero only loses 1BB bet when he doesn't make his flush (unless hero improves to a non-flush hand on the river and pays off).

**hero may also get in an extra bet on the river when he improves and foresakes checking behind on the river and is paid off.

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]
To state the obvious, the more passive and starightforward the opponent, the more I like calling the flop and folding toa turn bet unimproved, but the more aggresisve the opponent, the more I like hero's line.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the best anaylysis of the hand in this thread.

[ QUOTE ]
this hand has been haunting me. Where am I wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too, and I think you are right. After some thought, calling the flop and then folding the turn if loose passive bets at you again is optimal.

To make hero's line optimal, I think the opponent would have to be willing to bet Ax, a flush draw, a worse queen, and maybe one or two pocket pairs. But this is just a guess.

I still, however, will hang on to my theory that betting the river is correct if the opponent is loose enough, and would bet a large variety of hands on the flop. But this opponent is probably not one of them.

[butters]

Hero's line also has benefits outside of this hand if the table's paying attention. Might get him some extra calls the next time he hits his hand (although this is even more so if he follows through with a river bet).

[AliasMrJones]

I'm happy this generated some interesting discussion because my hand posts are usually so straightforward I get a bunch of nada.

I agree the passive/agressive tendencies of the opponent are critical in determining which approach is best here. I often make the mistake of thinking clueless = erratic. Often clueless is passive clueless as was the case here.

He had A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ/images/graemlins/club.gif for the flopped top pair. Given that he had the fish icon and was passive post-flop, I think I made the wrong play. If he were a better or more aggressive player that would bet out with the flush draw, I think this play would be better.