Big Slick struggling as usual

[StellarWind]

Paradise Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)
UTG is normal/passive. UTG+1 is loose/passive, a chaser, and prone to stupid plays. Don't know about Cutoff.

Preflop: Hero is BB with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks.

Turn: (6.75 BB) J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, ...

[I Play 2 Ski]

5 Outs to the nuts, 4 outs to 2nd nuts 5 outs to TPTK. I like the bet.

[J.R.]

I don't know if I like the flop check-raise attempt (if that's what you were up to), as its unlikely to get the two players in between to fold most of the hands you would like them to fold given the pot size and UTG+1's loose nature. I normally just bet the flop, there is a good chance I am best, I have overcards outs and the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

The turn bet is fine, you may still be ahead and at least 2 of your opponents aren't liekly to raise you with just a midling pair (not sur eif a flush is that probable), so you aren't too likely to get punished for your aggression if behind, may be ahead, and have outs is called. If you get called in all 3 spots you may have value in the bet, depending on the cleanliness and availability of your overcard outs.


I am not sure whether it matters much whether you bet the turn or check, as I am not to sure you have much "bluff" to this semi-bluff, not much value to this bet if its a value bet, and you aren't to likely to get raised by passive opponents so there isn't much downside to a bet. I feel a great deal of indifference, especially with respect to the turn play, do you have a strong feeling one way or another?

[StellarWind]

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I don't know if I like the flop check-raise attempt

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Right or wrong, I was just trying to avoid paying two bets to see the turn with overcards.

[J.R.]

So you just try to pick up the pot on the turn when everyone checks the flop, knowing you have outs if called/raised? I'd rather not pay 1 or 2 big bets to see the river with the nut flush draw and overcards, but...

You know from the flop passiveness that its is unlikely the turn will be raised, how much bite does the turn semi-bluff have, or how much value does it have when you are ahead? Enough to outweigh the times 1) it gets checked thru and you see the river for free or 2) the times the CO bets and you checkraise (if you are feeling frisky) and the CO can't beat nut no pair. I think so, but mostly from the value angle.

I like the turn bet, but if you had a read on the CO and were trying to check-raise him on the flop that would be super cool. /images/graemlins/cool.gif (I have mad FPS today). But having no read, its not bad to check call the flop if you think a CO flop bet means pair, but I prefer betting, you have a nice hand.

[MRBAA]

I hate the check on the flop. The raiser could have a relatively weak hand. You just three bet preflop representing a big hand. Checking here tells everyone you have overcards, not a big pair. You've made the pot big enough to risk a bet or two trying to win it. Bet out like you have Aces here and give 'em a chance to fold.

[StellarWind]

I think checkcalling this flop is correct. The pot has become too big to take down with a bet. Cutoff is not going to fold overcards from the button for one bet. The other players probably won't fold either. It's hard not to have a pair, overcards, or a straight draw on this flop.

If I do bet, Cutoff will probably raise either because he has a good hand or because it's his turn. Then I pay two bets to draw to maybe 4 effective outs for my overcards plus about 1.75 outs for the backdoors. I don't see myself winning unimproved at showdown very often playing four-handed. Even if I am ahead right now they have position and many outs.

Besides, if the whole hand does happen to hinge on betting to knock out J7s or something before the turn, I have every reason to expect Cutoff to oblige.

Which brings me to the turn. What is going on at the other end of the table? Why did the flop check through? The alarm bells were going off in my mind but I chose to ignore them. I really regret that. I should follow my intuition at the table.

Cutoff raised the turn. UTG called the river blank and Cutoff showed down his snowmen. HHIG.

Thanks for your comments.

[Danenania]

The flop check is interesting to me as I almost always come out betting in these situations though I'm sure it's sometimes wrong. Your reasons for checking here seem correct. Would you c/r a late position bet? It would be nice to get someone to fold a gutshot or low pair (especially A3, A5, K3, K5).

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]

The flop check is interesting to me as I almost always come out betting in these situations though I'm sure it's sometimes wrong. Your reasons for checking here seem correct. Would you c/r a late position bet?

[/ QUOTE ]
No. Checkraising will often get me 3-bet when I have very few outs. The hands that I can realistically knock out given the pot size have very little chance to defeat the hand I am trying to make. So checkraising only helps me win unimproved and I don't see much hope in that anyway.

This is a debateable point. Certainly checkraising is a better use of two bets than betting and calling a raise (if one knew in advance that those are the choices).

[Danenania]

I expect you'll usually have 6 outs plus the backdoor flush here even when 3-bet as 99-QQ are much more likely than 88.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]

I expect you'll usually have 6 outs plus the backdoor flush here even when 3-bet as 99-QQ are much more likely than 88.

[/ QUOTE ]
CO could have AA/KK, someone else could have a pair with an A/K kicker, and someone else could make two pair or a straight by the river. CO might also have AK with someone else having a pair, which gives me only two outs.

I don't know an exact number for my effective outs and I don't need one. It's just a dangerous habit to think that an overcard is worth three outs in a multiway pot. Too much stuff can go wrong.

[J.R.]

"CO could have AA/KK"

And sombody could have floped the nuts but is this likely, especially as you hold AK

"someone else could have a pair with an A/K kicker"

Once agains, its possible, but is it likely given you AK holding.

"someone else could make two pair or a straight by the river."

That's what check-raising is trying to prevent from happeneing, in additon to preventing soemone without a pair from hanging around to catch another one(admittedly this gaol is less likely to be acheived). Sure, the pot was 3-bet, so the check-raise is less effective given the pot sive, but you can still confront the field with 15-2. I really like the check-raise had the pot only been raised preflop, so its not clearcut here, but I think you're being a little negative about you chances.

"CO might also have AK with someone else having a pair, which gives me only two outs."

You could also have the best hand. You won't most of the time, but the pot is large (true it may be so large as to somewhat defeat your plans), so if you can do something to win it, you have a decent margin for error (i.e. it doesn't need to work that often for your check-raise to be right).

But any way, if you aren't willing to bet the flop, I really don't like betting the turn, because you don't have much bluff value, your opponents are still getting 7-1 or so, and you have to call a raise. Maybe a small pair checks and you get a free card and maybe you avoid raise from a turned big hand or slowplayed hand on the flop.

[StellarWind]

You and the others have made some excellent points.

I think the truth is that betting the flop, checkraising the flop, and checkcalling the flop all have their good points and similar EV. In theory some randomization is probably in order to ensure that my overpairs get paid off and my overcards don't get raised or 3-bet too often.

Following the notion that randomization is best based on small differences in the hands, it would make sense to say that I should take an aggressive stand this time because of the extra equity provided by the backdoor flush draw and checkcall next time when I have a different ace.

[ QUOTE ]
But any way, if you aren't willing to bet the flop, I really don't like betting the turn, because you don't have much bluff value, your opponents are still getting 7-1 or so, and you have to call a raise. Maybe a small pair checks and you get a free card and maybe you avoid raise from a turned big hand or slowplayed hand on the flop.

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You are definitely right about this. We could discuss the flop all day, but this is where I lost the real money on the hand.

This is especially true as Cutoff may bet his overcards now. Why take a risk to protect my possible best hand from the 6-out nothing hands when Cutoff will probably do it for me? And if he does have a 2-3 out hand like AQ, I make more money in this scenario by letting him bluff than by possibly knocking him out.

[crockett]

I read this post...walked away for awhile and have not been able to stop thinking about it.

I would always always bet into this flop. I need someone to explain to me why it is even debatable.

Here is my thinking as I'm playing this hand.

Pre-Flop:
"Cool, he didn't cap..no AA, KK, QQ...maybe JJ but probably not even that...AK at worst more likely AQ on down"

Flop:

"It could be better...but beautiful..they have no idea if I have big cards or an overpair, plus I got a little back door nut flush draw. I'll bet and let me see how much they like their cards now. Who the heck is going to raise me? The only legimate hand would be 88, maybe a few others like Axs....I'll take my chances."

Checking never even crosses my mind. Look at that board! I think the chances of it getting checked through are very high (table described as passive)...the only legitimate bet I would expect is from a 2 card flush. CO was the origanl raiser and since he didn't cap we assume no big pair and given the choice to see the turn for free or bet his AQo I think in most cases they will take the free card..especially after being 3-bet pre-flop.

Getting checked through isn't the end of the world but it just leaves you no other option if the turn misses you. You have to check again...and that stinks.

Turn: Bingo!!! As always it could be better but I just got the perfect semi-bluff card.

I think with this line I see it many times where I take the pot down right here on the turn.

If a blank hits and I bet and I'm raised on the turn, I usually just fold..no biggie.

I am not an experienced player so I hope I don't come off as one. I just wanted to post my thoughts, hoping someone could explain to me why checking is even considered an option.

Also, I would never consider C/R as well. Your draw is not strong enough for a C/R. If you were four to a flush a C/R would be a cool play but I still wouldn't try it on that board.

[Holm Fries]

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Cutoff raised the turn. UTG called the river blank and Cutoff showed down his snowmen. HHIG.



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How bad was the CO's flop check?