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craig r
10-02-2004, 12:54 AM
8-8 YTD: I took advantage of some of Bowmans reduced juice today. I don't think the lines will rise too much higher than what they are at now. I have given some of my reasons on some of these already.

Buf +7 (took monday, not reduced juice)
JAX +4.5 (ev)
ARI +3.5 (+105)
TB +3.5 (ev)

Craig
JesusSmurf
10-02-2004, 02:52 AM
What book are you getting ev on. Did you mean -110?
craig r
10-02-2004, 03:20 AM
No, it was EV, because of reduced juice at Bowmans.

craig
craig r
10-03-2004, 12:57 PM
MIA +7 -120 (bought from 6.5)
craig r
10-03-2004, 06:48 PM
adding SF +4 (bowmans)

craig
craig r
10-03-2004, 07:48 PM
Even though Sunday night's game has not happened yet, I wonder if betting every home dog blindly would have been the better play. it would be 5-3-1 right now. but, i don't like betting blindly. even though home dogs are the only winning subset in nfl.

i also am glad that the season is longer than 4 weeks. i feel that as long as i keep getting good numbers (half to a point better) and don't lay a lot of wood that i should come out ahead at the end of the season (i have for the last 3 years).

but, this can be really frustrating when you are looking at a game go from a win, to a push, to a loss in 4 minutes. but, like all other forms of "gambling" there is a huge element of luck involved.

done with my rant.

craig
Lori
10-03-2004, 08:03 PM
Maybe betting home dogs selectively would be a better plan.

If you have no edge through skill then blind luck may help out, and if you do, then maybe it would put you in a great position.

Just some thoughts.


Lori
NoChance
10-03-2004, 08:15 PM
I just added SF +3.5.

According to Talksport, lots of books are getting hit heavy with the Rams, yet the line isn't moving and juice is actually going the opposite way.

Looks like they want action on the Rams. I'll take the niners.

Also like the over.

GL
Lori
10-03-2004, 08:32 PM
I took the money line SF /images/graemlins/blush.gif

I then find I'm up against scalfie, who is on fire, so I think I'm doomed.

Lori
kdog
10-03-2004, 09:14 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Even though Sunday night's game has not happened yet, I wonder if betting every home dog blindly would have been the better play. it would be 5-3-1 right now. but, i don't like betting blindly. even though home dogs are the only winning subset in nfl

[/ QUOTE ]

Home dogs are 4-4-1 so far today, not 5-3-1. They are also NOT a winning subset in the NFL. This year to date home dogs are 8-12-1 in the NFL and SF looks like another one going down.
craig r
10-03-2004, 09:16 PM
[ QUOTE ]
They are also NOT a winning subset in the NFL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, since 1990, they are. I don't know about before that.

craig
NoChance
10-03-2004, 09:20 PM
San Fran moving the ball but they self-destruct.

Turnovers
craig r
10-03-2004, 09:21 PM
i have stopped watching it. oh well, it happens. 54% at the end of the season.

craig
kdog
10-03-2004, 09:26 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

They are also NOT a winning subset in the NFL.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Sorry, since 1990, they are. I don't know about before that.



[/ QUOTE ]

I don't believe they are. Someone posted a 53.something% for home dogs since 1990 in a thread here the other day. That's a losing proposition when you take the vig into account.

If you are going to post something like this on the board please have some data to back up your claims or at least state that it is only your opinion. There are a lot of newbies on this board lately and some of them could be misled.
craig r
10-03-2004, 09:32 PM
To get the data, go to www.sharpsportsbetting.com (http://www.sharpsportsbetting.com) . Then click on "football." there is a link at the top of the page that says "SSB Tables." Their data is usually right on. And the actuall number since 1990 is 53.76% (and this is against WA numbers). How will the juice eat you up if you have to win 52.38%?

craig
D. Andrew
10-03-2004, 09:55 PM
If you keep getting numbers like you did this week, you will win. Don't worry, don't panic.
craig r
10-03-2004, 09:59 PM
[ QUOTE ]
If you keep getting numbers like you did this week, you will win. Don't worry, don't panic.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know it is just frustrating. People are laying an extra point to point and a half and winning; it is just frustrating. thanks for the help though.

craig
DanS
10-03-2004, 10:03 PM
I have nothing to say about sports betting here. However, my Niners are embarassing me. They're the worst they've been since pre-Joe Montana.

Dan
craig r
10-04-2004, 06:18 PM
Went 2-4 this weekend. Overall record is 10-12 now. I will not be betting on MNF tonight, unless I can get a 7.5 (without having to lay 120). It is not looking good right now (about 3 hours before kick off). I am sure next week will be much better.

craig
craig r
10-04-2004, 09:04 PM
I am going to take the Under 41.5 tonight for 1 unit.

craig