riverflush
10-01-2004, 01:58 PM
Not much response to last night's debate on the political futures market.
The Iowa Electronic Market - Bush dipped slightly but then inched back up towards his previous high, while Kerry has gained but only very slightly.
IEM (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm)
On TradeSports, Bush is actually up 0.7 on the day to 65.2, while Kerry is up slightly as well 0.4 to 35.9.
Tradesports (http://tradesports.com/)
Very interesting lack of bump for Kerry or fall for Bush. Kerry is widely perceived to have done well in the debate, but there was no "big winner" last night...most consider it an effective draw with the public. The current market trends favor that.
Interestingly, the DOW is up nearly 100pts today and many traders believe it's because Bush will maintain his current frontrunner status. If you follow the markets, you will already know this - there is statistically significant movement upward on Bush good news over the past year.
I find all these machinations actually much more interesting than the actual race...but I'm sure that doesn't surprise any of you guys. I'm a market junkie.
The Iowa Electronic Market - Bush dipped slightly but then inched back up towards his previous high, while Kerry has gained but only very slightly.
IEM (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm)
On TradeSports, Bush is actually up 0.7 on the day to 65.2, while Kerry is up slightly as well 0.4 to 35.9.
Tradesports (http://tradesports.com/)
Very interesting lack of bump for Kerry or fall for Bush. Kerry is widely perceived to have done well in the debate, but there was no "big winner" last night...most consider it an effective draw with the public. The current market trends favor that.
Interestingly, the DOW is up nearly 100pts today and many traders believe it's because Bush will maintain his current frontrunner status. If you follow the markets, you will already know this - there is statistically significant movement upward on Bush good news over the past year.
I find all these machinations actually much more interesting than the actual race...but I'm sure that doesn't surprise any of you guys. I'm a market junkie.