Billy Baroo
09-28-2004, 05:35 PM
Decided to post my picks after all.
San Diego +131 1 unit
Minnesota +230 1 unit
Tampa Bay +205 4 units
Oakland -262 1 unit
I made all my picks last night, so the lines have changed quite a bit since then.
SD: San Diego is at home and has been playing well recently. Schmidt isn't that much better than Lawrence, not better enough for me to feel this line is right.
Min: I don't think Hernandez is nearly as good as his stats indicate. A key player or two will probably be getting some rest for both teams so I don't expect either team to play their A game. When this happens, I think it gives an advantage to the underdog.
TB: Tampa plays well at home and Boston is very marginal on the road. Halama is a better pitcher than Lowe under normal circumstances... but this game is being played on astro turf. Keep in mind that Lowe gives up more ground balls than any other pitcher in baseball by a wide margin. On the rug this means a lot of grounders that are typically outs will scoot through for singles. Also, look for a lot of errors by the Sox infield... the books should hang an over/under on the number of errors Mark Bellhorn will commit. Tampa does have a relatively slow rug, but the surface is still much faster than a grass infield. The line has already moved to Bos -183 on this one and is dropping like a rock, so I'm going to catch a big arb tonight.
Oak: This is the biggest favorite I have ever bet. Oakland is playing at home in a huge game and is starting their best pitcher. Seattle is terrible, plays even worse on the road, and is starting a pitcher who is scrubby even by The Mariners low standards. I only bet big favorites when everything is perfect... and in this case I think everything is. I think Oakland wins more than 72.3% here.
San Diego +131 1 unit
Minnesota +230 1 unit
Tampa Bay +205 4 units
Oakland -262 1 unit
I made all my picks last night, so the lines have changed quite a bit since then.
SD: San Diego is at home and has been playing well recently. Schmidt isn't that much better than Lawrence, not better enough for me to feel this line is right.
Min: I don't think Hernandez is nearly as good as his stats indicate. A key player or two will probably be getting some rest for both teams so I don't expect either team to play their A game. When this happens, I think it gives an advantage to the underdog.
TB: Tampa plays well at home and Boston is very marginal on the road. Halama is a better pitcher than Lowe under normal circumstances... but this game is being played on astro turf. Keep in mind that Lowe gives up more ground balls than any other pitcher in baseball by a wide margin. On the rug this means a lot of grounders that are typically outs will scoot through for singles. Also, look for a lot of errors by the Sox infield... the books should hang an over/under on the number of errors Mark Bellhorn will commit. Tampa does have a relatively slow rug, but the surface is still much faster than a grass infield. The line has already moved to Bos -183 on this one and is dropping like a rock, so I'm going to catch a big arb tonight.
Oak: This is the biggest favorite I have ever bet. Oakland is playing at home in a huge game and is starting their best pitcher. Seattle is terrible, plays even worse on the road, and is starting a pitcher who is scrubby even by The Mariners low standards. I only bet big favorites when everything is perfect... and in this case I think everything is. I think Oakland wins more than 72.3% here.