Line moves I don't understand (week 2)

[NoChance]

(Lines from Canbet)

Wash -3 (+105) NYG +3 (-120)

According to Wagerline.com, 73% are picking Washington but the juice keeps going up as if people are picking the Giants. It's almost as if Vegas wants money on Washington this weekend. I will probably put something on the Giants even though I don't like it at all.

Den -3 (+100) Jax +3 (-115)

See comments from Was/NYG game. 69% of the public on Denver but juice goes the other way. I already had Jax pegged as one of my picks.

Indy -1 Tenn +1

This line movement looks similar to the Minnesota game last week. 69% on Indy and the line keeps moving in thier favor. I originally liked Tennessee but in this game but may change my mind.

Sea -2.5 (-115) TB +2.5 (+100)

69% are on Seattle. We had this talk last week about 3 being a magic number. Why are they moving the juice and not the line? Why in this case don't they move it to -3? Take TB?

I just wanted to get this stuff on record BEFORE the games this week so you can see what I look at with line movements. Please comment on the above games. I am looking for comments/reasons why I am seeing what I am seeing. It just seems like they (Vegas) are inviting bets on the away teams above (except the Indy game where the line is actually moving with public perception).

[anatta]

It seems to me that if the books aren't moving the line, but all the money is going on one side then betting the other way (with the books) would be the smart thing to do.

Since you have some experience with this, does betting against the money show a profit historically? For example, if you were to bet against the money trend in the top three games each week for the last say 5 years or so what the results would be?

[NoChance]

I don't have a database to look up that information for the past 5 years or so.

Take the Washington game for example. Even the picks here in this forum match the numbers I am seeing at Wagerline. 16 people have picked Washington as oe of thier picks and only 2 have picked the Giants. Yet, the line doesn't move. Okay, maybe it's because it's set on three. It still does'nt explain the juice. The juice keeps rising on the Giants side. It almost looks like Vegas wants money on Washington. Can anyone give an honest reason for the juice movement?

All I know is, if this does not change by the time I wake up tomorrow, I will be adding the Giants and Bucs to my plays. I already have Jacksonville and will probably stay off Indy. I just don't like it. I liked the Titans when they were favored by 2.5, and I know I should be happy with the extra points, but the movement just scares me too much.

[Jimbo]

Are the percentages you list money or number of individual bets? This makes quite a bit of difference.

Jimbo

[NoChance]

Individual bets.

FYI, the Sea/TB line went to -3 as I expected so staying off that one.

[Jimbo]

In that case your logic is reverse. Noone cares how many people bet one side or another, what matters is the amount of money bet on each side.

Jimbo

[Slacker13]

[ QUOTE ]
It almost looks like Vegas wants money on Washington. Can anyone give an honest reason for the juice movement?

[/ QUOTE ]

They are baiting people to take washington. Offshore casinos and las vegas bait the general public all the time.

[ QUOTE ]
16 people have picked Washington as oe of thier picks and only 2 have picked the Giants.

[/ QUOTE ]
That is the books goal, they expect that the NYG is a strong play and are going to take the risk they are correct.

I play lines moves often but line moves are only good when you know who is moving the line, right now it's 1.5 hours before kickoff and the line moves do not mean very much to me, it's the line move just before kickoff that I am interested in, thats when the sharpies come in and lay the big money is just before kickoff. I can guarantee that more often than not if you hold a wager for lets say Washington -3 and that line drops to wash -2 or -1.5 just before kickoff you are most likely holding a losing ticket becasue the line just moved against you. It takes don best software to get these line moves but it's not a cheap sevice but is however worth every penny.

[blownheadgasket]

Another reason is - the book is very wary of moving lines off key numbers late in the week. Anyone with wash -3 early would love to get the Giants +3.5 - sure you eat the vig if you split but 3 is a key number and its these minor edges that guys look for.

[Slacker13]

When you say

[ QUOTE ]
Even the picks here in this forum match the numbers I am seeing at Wagerline. 16 people have picked Washington as oe of thier picks and only 2 have picked the Giants. Yet, the line doesn't move.

[/ QUOTE ]

it is similar to picking up a tell in poker, the oddsmakers are giving you information here, you just need to trust your instincts and bet accordingly. I posted Atlanta as one of my plays this week solely because it smelt like a trap. I may be completely wrong, STL IMO is a better team but I've been doing this for along time and many plays are based on your instincts and finding those little tells from the oddsmakers, so if what your read is correct, and I think you are you should be betting NYG's.

(This post has been sitting open since before kickoff, just to let you know I am not replying now because NYG is winning, I just got very busy with my own betting)

[NoChance]

These would be 6-0 now after two weeks. TB doesn't count because line moved.

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
They are baiting people to take washington. Offshore casinos and las vegas bait the general public all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is there any type of proof that the books are "baiting" people? I understand that books will be willing to take a position on a game, but this is different than the idea of being "baited" or (in a similar vein): "the bookies are begging for us to bet this." I guess I am asking you if this concept of being baited is theoretical or empirically derived.

craig

[eggzz]

Make sure that you and Slacker get together on some good plays for next week. Interesting stuff.

[Oski]

[ QUOTE ]
These would be 6-0 now after two weeks. TB doesn't count because line moved.

[/ QUOTE ]

I took all four of your plays. I do think TB(SEA) should count, because the line moved for TB. that fits your model. For me, it never moved, and the juice kept climbing on TB. (It was already at 3 when I got to it).

Balt/Cle
Minn/Dal
KC/DEN
GB/CAR

WASH/NYG
Den/Jax
Indy/TENN
Sea/TB
Buff/RAI - THis one did not move off of 3, but juice climbed above 112 against RAiders. (This was a lucky push).

I count 8-0-1

[NLfool]

ok I took 2 of your plays and worked out well. What I'm wondering is what source/sites you are going to to find where the public is putting there bets and how the lines have moved relatively to when they are first posted

[Oski]

[ QUOTE ]
Make sure that you and Slacker get together on some good plays for next week. Interesting stuff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure Slacker does just fine by himself, lol.

[NoChance]

Oski, I am glad it worked out for you. I stayed off the Indy game but actually saved money because I would have taken the Titans and lost. I stayed off the TB game because of the line moved as expected (at Canbet).

I did come away with good victories with Jacksonville and the Giants.

The last thing I want anyone to do is take picks/advice that causes them to lose money. I was simply posting situations that I have noticed the past two weeks that just didn't make sense.

Looks like you had a great day at 8-0-1! Most people I know struggled yesterday. I had small plays on Kansas City and Oakland (-3.5) that lost. These were not "strange lines" but rather just picks I liked. Good thing I didn't post those!

[NoChance]

NLFool, I search all over for any information I can find. There are tons of sites like Wagerline that show a consensus. There are tons of pools like the one we do here that also show a consensus. Take all this information and put it together to get a feel for who is betting on what.

One thing you have to understand is that Vegas does not try to predict the final score. They simply try to throw a line out there that (based on public perception) will get 50% bet on one side and 50% bet on the other side. When this happens they come out ahead because of the juice from the losing wagers.

Now, when I see indications from many different sources that a large majority of people are on one side but the line does not move, a big red flag is rasied in my mind. It could mean that the minority is placing larger bets as someone mentioned above (and I think this would be considered smart money anyway), or it could mean Vegas set a line that they are willing to gamble with because most people are on the wrong side. I really don't know. All I know is the line moves in the games I posted did not make sense. When the TB line finally moved the way I expected it to, then it made sense, so I stayed off it.

[Oski]

[ QUOTE ]
Oski, I am glad it worked out for you. I stayed off the Indy game but actually saved money because I would have taken the Titans and lost. I stayed off the TB game because of the line moved as expected (at Canbet).

I did come away with good victories with Jacksonville and the Giants.

The last thing I want anyone to do is take picks/advice that causes them to lose money. I was simply posting situations that I have noticed the past two weeks that just didn't make sense.

Looks like you had a great day at 8-0-1! Most people I know struggled yesterday. I had small plays on Kansas City and Oakland (-3.5) that lost. These were not "strange lines" but rather just picks I liked. Good thing I didn't post those!

[/ QUOTE ]

I sure did not go 8-0-1: That is the total of the bet trends you have developed. I did not bet those last week, but I did this week.

I am surprised you did not bet Indy or Sea. Both line moves fit in with the Minn line move of last week: IN other words, the book was trying to sell Tenn. and TB (both of which I wanted to bet before the lines moved). Anyway, I took Indy and Sea.

Finally, this is a sports betting forum. We take the info for what its worth. Presumably, we are all adults, and we will make our own choices about what to wager ... so, don't worry about us losing money on your picks or observations.

[NoChance]

Ahh, I see what you are saying now.

Maybe I am being too picky but I didn't count GB/CAR or BUF/OAK because the public was not heavily favoring one team. Even though the books looked like they were trying to bait us, I couldn't really get a feel for it because the general public was split. I am specifically looking for moves opposite public opinion.

The SEA/TB game probably depended on what book you use. For me it was a no play as I posted before the game started. I felt it should have been -3 for a couple reasons, yet it stayed at -2.5 until Sunday morning. Anyway, I would have lost that one. I was on TB, not SEA, until the line moved. SEA ended up covering.

Anyway, I will keep looking to see if anything jumps out at me. So far I see a bunch of people talking up Baltimore again. I want to see how that line moves this week. Is it possible Baltimore is a Jekyll/Hyde team this year? Everyone loves them in week 1, hates them in week 2, then loves them again in week 3. I love this sport!

[Lori]

Maybe I am being too picky

Picky is good when testing a specific theory.

Lori