Week long tilt?

[Costanza]

Some history -- lost my first $100 online messing around having fun playing tournaments. I then decided to get a little more serious and have since read SSHE, Hold'em for Advanced Players and Tournament Poker for Advanced Players. I put in another small bankroll and started playing 1/2, then 2/4 then 3/6, all fairly successfully without any losses which were significant.

Then I had one horrendous day where I basically lost it all, and I trace it back to a session where I only played 8 out of 78 hands. 2 of those were AKo in the BB which folded around to me (didn't even get to bet them). And -- what really sticks out for me -- losing with AA twice in a row to rag/rag offsuit after capping the bet preflop.

I haven't had a winning session since.


Here's an example -- I'd just folded KQs to a re-raise preflop only to see the board come out KKT.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, BB folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, MP2 calls.

River: (12.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 16.25 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 16.25 BB, between Hero and MP2.</font>


Unlucky? Stupid?

Then -- is this just normal variation/to be expected to consistently increase a bankroll about 100BB over a period of 3 weeks, and then lose it all and another 100BB in 4 days?

And more importantly -- if these are the hands that are sticking out in my mind, should I even be thinking about making another deposit?

[anatta]

I like how you played this hand until the river where I would just call. His play is strange, triple stop n go and all, with a board of KQJ, I would just call. Great raise on the turn.

[Evan]

You didn't post the results to I don't knwo if you got unlucky. But I don't agree witht the way you played it, I don't dee any way that MP2 didn't flop 2 pair. When he leads the turn I call him down.
Also, 1/2 goes in Micro.

[Monty Cantsin]

I put the opponent on 46. Face it, you were outplayed.

/mc

[bisonbison]

Here's an example -- I'd just folded KQs to a re-raise preflop only to see the board come out KKT

Did you raise and then fold to a 3-bet? Or was it raised ahead of you and you folded? Cause 1 is bad and 2 is good.

[Evan]

Why do you like the turn raise? Stop and go form almost always means that he opponent can beat a pair.

[anatta]

I dont agree that usually the stop n go means that his opponent can beat one pair, as usually two pair will check raise. Its common when the second flush card comes to see a bet from a pair and a flush draw. I liked the raise to force out the other player in this big pot. Even if his opponent has two pair, hero has 12 outs to beat it (right? I am not looking at the board but he has a gutter and overpair?), most two pairs will be scared of a set on this board (KQJ vs preflop raiser), so if hero raises, he won't get three-bet. Even if I was 60 percent sure opponent had two pair, I would still raise, but take a free showdown if I didn't improve.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if his opponent has two pair, hero has 12 outs to beat it

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, but you also have to consider the reverse implied odds of not knowing what 8 of those outs are (half of the board card pairing give Hero a better 2 pair, but half give his opponent a boat).

[ QUOTE ]
most two pairs will be scared of a set on this board

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a fairly optimistic idea. I'd bet that most people that play on Party couldn't remember who raised PF by the time they get to the turn.

[me454555]

Why did you raise the turn? What did you put you're opponent on?

Why did you raise the river? what did you put you're oppoennt on?

Looks like you might have lost to 2 pair. With a flop of KQJ, theres a lot of 2 pairs that you could be behind, (KJ, KQ, QJ) You could also be up against a strait (9T) which the guy played passively. I think you cost yourself 2 bbs you didnt have to.

On a different note, if you moved up from 1/2-3/6 w/out any significant losses you haven't played enough hands at each level. Downswings are a part of the game. Any good poker player who hasn't experienced one isn't a good poker player.

How big is you're bankroll for 3/6? The games can get fairly aggressive so have at least 300bbs and possibly more.

[anatta]

Even if his opponent has two pair, and even if his opponent will three bet the turn with his two pair, if AA can get the button to fold a hand that is drawing live and/or clean ups some outs, and AA can correctly fold his unimproved hand on the river after getting three-bet on the turn, getting three bet isn't that big of a deal.

But this of course assumes not only that two pair will three-bet turn, but also that AA is behind here. It takes more than a bullshit stop n go for me to conclude AA no good becuase two pair usually check-raises turn or three-bets flop and lead the turn. Stop n goes are met by me with suspicion and most often with a raise.

[Evan]

I neglected to read the beginning of your post the first time.
[ QUOTE ]
I put in another small bankroll and started playing 1/2, then 2/4 then 3/6, all fairly successfully without any losses which were significant

[/ QUOTE ]

This says more to suggest that you're not ready for the levels you're playing. Everyone has downswings, everyone that plays seriously has significant downswings. Some people may tell you otherwise...THEY ARE WRONG. Many posters on these boards who are truely great players say that they have experienced 10000+hands of losing poker.
How many hands do you have logged at each level, I'd reccomend at the very least 15000.

[me454555]

What outs can our hero clean up? His Ts are to the nuts, and no one w/a T is folding to clean up his ace outs

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
clean ups some outs

[/ QUOTE ]
What outs are you cleaning up? No one's folding a heart draw, your ace outs are only dirty if someone has a 10 (which they won't fold EVER EVER EVER. So I don't see any outs getting cleaned up here.

[ QUOTE ]
AA can correctly fold his unimproved hand on the river

[/ QUOTE ]
Or you could just not make the turn raise, call him down and get to a showdown for the smae price. I don't want to put myself into a position where I see the river with AA and ahve to fold when I could've avoided it. If you're planning on folding the river unimporved if you're 3 bet, there really is no point to raising the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
It takes more than a bullshit stop n go for me to conclude AA no good

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying Hero's hand is no good, if I were I would've said fold. What I am saying is that the board sucks and so does the action, it's time to slow down.

[Evan]

Damn, you beat me to it.

[Bob T.]

You don't understand variance. You don't have any idea, how long the short run is. You don't have an inkling, how long it takes to get to the long run.

You were undercapitalized for the limits you were playing, and a good run built your bankroll, and a bad run destroyed it. Whether you were a winning or losing player, is hard to figure out from such a small amount of hands, but your understanding of bankroll management will likely make it impossible for you to build a bankroll without an exceptionally good run.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[Blarg]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not looking at the board but he has a gutter and overpair?),

[/ QUOTE ]

Some of his outs to that gutter may be dead. KT, QT, JT, are all possibilities his opponents could be calling with, especially if the broadways are suited. And TT would really make hitting that gutter a tiny chance.

On the stop-n-go, I find that I wonder a lot what it's about when I see it, but then find many people do it just because they got any piece of the flop, or because they want to be slick and make someone betting AK or such fold out. It can be disorienting, but now that I'm playing 6-max, I see it so often I'm getting used to it and it doesn't necessarily set off alarm bells.

[anatta]

The button could have a pair.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
Some of his outs to that gutter may be dead. KT, QT, JT, are all possibilities his opponents could be calling with, especially if the broadways are suited. And TT would really make hitting that gutter a tiny chance.


[/ QUOTE ]

Of course they're possible hands, but you still have to assume that he has 4 outs to broadway. If you have 89 and the flop comes 27T, you have 8 outs even though someone could have mucked T3 or K6 PF.

[ QUOTE ]
but then find many people do it just because they got any piece of the flop, or because they want to be slick and make someone betting AK or such fold out

[/ QUOTE ]

That's really not likely though on a board like this since overs aren't impossible.

[ QUOTE ]
but now that I'm playing 6-max, I see it so often I'm getting used to it and it doesn't necessarily set off alarm bells

[/ QUOTE ]

6 max is a VERY different game.

[anatta]

[ QUOTE ]
On the stop-n-go, I find that I wonder a lot what it's about when I see it, but then find many people do it just because they got any piece of the flop, or because they want to be slick and make someone betting AK or such fold out. It can be disorienting, but now that I'm playing 6-max, I see it so often I'm getting used to it and it doesn't necessarily set off alarm bells.

[/ QUOTE ]


I think you are right, that many people do it to be slick.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
The button could have a pair.

[/ QUOTE ]
What does this mean?

[Thomsen]

hey !

When someone keep on betting at you even though u raise them - please consider the fact that u might be behind. Call it down with your AA but dont raise the river.

And then somthing else - did you raise KQs preflop and then fold to a reraise ????? I dont think i have EVER done that.

[anatta]

You guys asked me what could button have that you would want him to fold. Since a pair has five outs vs. AA, it would be good if he folded this. I realize that your question was asked in the context of my post which assumed 100% that turn better had two pair. Forget that /images/graemlins/grin.gif. Go back to the original hand. In reality, I think you'll agree, the turn better might have two pair or might just be "slick" as the other poster put it. I am thinking that having the button fold a pair is a good thing since he would be correct to call getting 8:1.

[Evan]

I honestly didn't put it in any context, I just saw it and didn't know what you were responding to.
You really don't want the button to fold a pair though, you're a favorite over a pair and it helps to have overcalls in a pot like this where you're likely behind at the moment.

[me454555]

What type of pair are you worried about. Button called 2 cold to get to this point and also called 2 cold on the flop. What pair is he folding for 2 bets on the flop that he would call 1 for?

Hands like AQ, AK, AJ are of no concern b/c they only have 2 outs against you. Hands like QT JT KT arent folding anyway. Even hands like Q9, K9, or J9 believe they have the odds to call b/c of their gutshot. So what types of pairs do you want to fold? Hands like K, Q, or J w/a low kicker seem unlikely.

Add this to the fact that the original bettor could easily have 2 pair or better and decide to 3 bet you and I don't think its worth cleaning up an extra couple of outs.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think its worth cleaning up an extra couple of outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Especially since this is basically impossible.

[BusterStacks]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's an example -- I'd just folded KQs to a re-raise preflop only to see the board come out KKT

Did you raise and then fold to a 3-bet? Or was it raised ahead of you and you folded? Cause 1 is bad and 2 is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

really? you just fold 'em up to a 3-bet? just like that? Maybe I have a lot to learn.

[anatta]

Most (all /images/graemlins/frown.gif) the other posters seem to agree with you, that hero is likely behind.

Obviously, the KQJ board makes two pair more likely than normal. However, it also makes hand like a pair and a straight draw likely. The heart on the turn makes this hand even more likely. In my experience, the stop and go move quite often means such a hand, and a turn check-raise, not stop n go, is more consistent with two pair. However, this does not mean that I think two pair is unlikely. I think its more like 50/50.

If it is 50/50 (humor me /images/graemlins/smile.gif), then should hero raise the turn? I think yes, given that a pair is a common hand for the button to have, and that calling on the turn would be correct for one bet, but a mistake for two, and by making the button fold, hero increases his chances of winning a decent sized pot.

I don't know how likely an opponent will three-bet a preflop raiser with two pair, but if he never does it, then raising is clearly the best play if you are taking it to showdown anyways, just take a free showdown (I would probably bet anyways if he just called and checked a harmless river, but that's just me), and if a Ten comes or the board pairs low, bet and make more money (if same cards came your opponent might check-call river with two pair, losing you a bet you would have won if you raised the turn). Of course, the converse is true, if you raise and are ahead, HE probably has lots of outs, and you will lose more if HE hits, plus your raise might scare him from calling on the river if he misses his draw with his pair...breaking up going insane here...).


Screw this, I'm going to bed! What if he is ahead half the time, should he raise?

[Evan]

For my last post of the nite.....

[ QUOTE ]
by making the button fold, hero increases his chances of winning a decent sized pot

[/ QUOTE ]

Making the button fold a single pair really does very little for Hero's pot equity.

[ QUOTE ]
What if he is ahead half the time, should he raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's not.

[bad beetz]

There's certainly no reason to raise the river, either you're beat or it's a bluff, either way no more money. Its a crying call at best

[anatta]

[ QUOTE ]
Hands like AQ, AK, AJ are of no concern b/c they only have 2 outs against you

[/ QUOTE ]

What about a ten for the chop? I should add these are likely hands for the button to have.

[ QUOTE ]
So what types of pairs do you want to fold

[/ QUOTE ]

If AA is ahead about half the time, I am thinking I want any type of pair except a pocket pair.

[ QUOTE ]
Hands like K, Q, or J w/a low kicker seem unlikely

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't played in that game lately, things must have changed.

[ QUOTE ]
Add this to the fact that the original bettor could easily have 2 pair or better and decide to 3 bet you and I don't think its worth cleaning up an extra couple of outs

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the key, IMO. How likely are you behind?, and how likely are you going to get three-bet if you are behind? I don't think hero is behind much more than half the time, and I don't think he will get three bet that often

(one reason he might not get three bet is everybody here thinks its bad to raise with AA, if that is the case, then if turn better has two pair and posts here, he won't put hero on AA since AA won't raise, right, since he will be thinking "that preflop raiser seems a thinking player, he must read me for two pair, yet he raised my stop n go, he must have a set, raising with AA would be silly unless its anatta and then its just stupid...", and two pair will fear a set, and just check the river.)

[me454555]

You make some good points and I'm not arguing that the hand would be better if button were not in it but how likely is the button to fold any of the hands you're describing?

He didnt have the odds to call pf, nor on the flop and he did it anyway. Why would he fold a hand like a pair + a strait draw or a pair w/a low kicker on the turn getting similar outs? More likely, he's going to call here and since theres a good chance you're behind MP2, you're just adding to MP2s pot equity and really not helping you're own.

By raising, and having him call 2, he may give you a little extra pot equity, but any pot equity you gain from MP2 is lost by the fact that you're probobly drawing to 6 outs max against MP2. You're making an extra dime from button folding or calling but losing a dollar b/c you don't have enough pot equity to make this raise worth while.

Sure Button may make 2 pair on the river occasionally but how often will he improve to beat you AND MP2? Your outs are the same regardless of what MP2 has b/c he's not folding a T and he's not folding a pair + a gutter.

[djcolts]

If you learn only one thing from this thread (hopefully you'll learn more), learn that playing at limits beyond your bankroll will likely lead to losing your bankroll.

I've played online for nearly 4 months - and I've made a lot of mistakes, but the one mistake I haven't made was playing beyond my bankroll - and that (along with chasing some bonuses) has allowed me to increase my bankroll in spite of my mistakes.

There is no hurry to move up limits - don't play beyond your bankroll (and your skill level).

[anatta]

You guys made better points than me. I don't think the turn raise is a big deal, but probably should have called down, couldn't sleep last night. Thanks for your and Evan input.

[Costanza]

I put the opponent on 46. Face it, you were outplayed.

B-I-N-G-freakin'-O, baby. How'd you know? Seriously. And that makes 3 times in the past 2 weeks (about 300 hands). At least I didn't get the opportunity to cap pre-flop this time.


Did you raise and then fold to a 3-bet? Or was it raised ahead of you and you folded? Cause 1 is bad and 2 is good.

It was raised ahead of me. And #2, in my opinion, is a fitting description of both hands.


I like how you played this hand until the river where I would just call.

I think -- no, I'm pretty sure -- that was a mistake. I also agree that raising the turn was a bit overagressive as well, but I felt like I had the outs to do it. I thought my opponent was acting a bit indecisive was another reason I did it.


You don't understand variance. You don't have any idea, how long the short run is. You don't have an inkling, how long it takes to get to the long run.

You were undercapitalized for the limits you were playing, and a good run built your bankroll, and a bad run destroyed it. Whether you were a winning or losing player, is hard to figure out from such a small amount of hands, but your understanding of bankroll management will likely make it impossible for you to build a bankroll without an exceptionally good run.

A bit harsh here, I think, but I'm not arguing. I look at bankroll a little differently though. I could have lost the same number of BB's playing 5/10 without it really affecting my lifestyle. 40/80... well, the girls' weddings would probably have to be a little smaller. But that's not the point. I've pretty much gone through the recommended 300BB bankroll in what I already thought was a relatively small number of hands through a combination of play at 1/2, 2/4 and 3/6. And this after I was winning modestly for a little while.

Don't get me wrong -- I didn't like losing the money. But what I REALLY didn't like was losing.


Anyway, thanks for all the thoughts on this hand. I never imagined it would get so many responses. This seems to be a great community and one which I'm going to come back to often.

I've gone back and looked through the hands I've played and found many folding errors -- hands which I should have seen through but folded due to weak play. I don't know if it would have covered all the losses, but at least things wouldn't have been nearly as bad.

But I just can't get these 3 hands out my head. I think they're making me freeze. AA, KK and AKs make me cringe. And I think the past two weeks are the result.

I've decided to take a break for a while until I can work through this a little in my head. I'm ordering Turbo Texas Hold'em for practice in the meantime. I'm going to keep lurking here as well.

[Zetack]

[ QUOTE ]

Then -- is this just normal variation/to be expected to consistently increase a bankroll about 100BB over a period of 3 weeks, and then lose it all and another 100BB in 4 days?

[/ QUOTE ]

As you may have gleaned...yes. 100 BB downswings are much more normal but I'd be surprised if a large percentage of the posters here who've played a bunch of hands won't admit to soemthing in the area of a 200 BB downswing (my biggest was about 170 BB's--knock on wood). Heck some folks may have lost that in a day.

Last week I went down 100 BB over 900 hands, back up 100 over the next 1300 hands, broke even over the next 1100, then went up 150 BB's over the next 2800 hands. Variance baby!!!


The thing about that downswing is I've seen enough of em, it didn't shake my confidence. I noticed that my opponents were playing horribly but my luck was truly rotten. I just kept playing my game till things went my way.

If this was your first big downswing since you got serious I can see how it could cause you problems. But its normal.

Oh, and as for Turbo Texas Hold'em I dunno. I seem to recall either Sklansky or Malmuth posting on here criticizing it. I have the tourney version, but I just break it out for fun when I can't play real poker.

--Zetack

[evain]

If you can "lose it all" in one day your bankroll is not big enough for the level you are playing.