jwvdcw
09-16-2004, 12:59 PM
This was posted over at FBGs. I would like to hear some more thougts on it:
"I'm not saying by any stretch of the imagination that the Cardinals are going to win this game outright, however, I think that they will cover at +8 for a number of reasons:
1) Prior to the game, the Cardinals will be having a tribute to Pat Tillman.
I beleive that the Cardinals are going to be fired up because of this and are going to give their all to win this game for their fallen teammate. Look for the Cardinals to play with alot of emotion this Sunday. They may not be able to win this one, but I believe that they will keep it close
2) Cardinals are tough at home.
Last season the Cardinals managed to beat the Packers, 49ers, Bengals and Vikings at home outright, while playing close games against Carolina, Baltimore, and St. Louis.
The Patriots really have no preparation for the 100+ degree weather that they are going to be facing here in the desert. Look for some of the Patriots players to become dehydrated or cramp up during the game.
More information will become available in the upcoming days, am I insane or can the Cardinals really cover against the defending Super Bowl Champs? "
Also written there:
"I think you are ignoring LOADS of precedent that includes Super Bowl winners on the road the following year, the Patriots inability to beat anyone by more than 6 points on the road last year (except, coincidentally, Philadelphia in week 2), and the above mentioned AZ ability to keep it close at home.
The Pats are not a team that is designed to blow folks out. If they go up by two TDs points against AZ they will get super conservative, not score much more, try to work the clock, and will ultimately allow AZ to climb back into the game."
Some more:
"In addition to the anti-superbowl teams theory (1-0-1 so far ATS this year), home dogs of 7 points or more have been gold over the years. Also, favored road teams coming off of a home win let down some too (mainly the defense, as a lot of these games go over the total).
As always, these are past trends, which could change at any moment.
But there seems to be a lot of them going against the Patriots this week. "
Even more:
"AZ is definitely a good play here. AZ lost only one game at home last year by more than 8 points. They beat Green Bay, Minnesota, SF and Cincy at home and lost to Carolina and St. Louis by just 3 points. Now that I think about it, the only inter-divisional home game they lost was to Baltimore. Maybe teams that don’t regularly play there, unlike their divisional rivals, really can’t cope with the heat.
On the other hand, the last time New England won a road game by more than 8 points was in Week 2 last year at Philly. But the perception is that NE is so great and AZ is so bad, that I expect this line to grow another point at least to provide even better value."
And more:
"This game is a massive trap. The line is so low because Vegas knows they can trick average Joe fan into beting that the Pats cover the spread. The reality of it is, the Cards barely lost any home game last year, and probably have a better team as well.
Take the Cards and run. "
link: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=104598&hl=tillman
"I'm not saying by any stretch of the imagination that the Cardinals are going to win this game outright, however, I think that they will cover at +8 for a number of reasons:
1) Prior to the game, the Cardinals will be having a tribute to Pat Tillman.
I beleive that the Cardinals are going to be fired up because of this and are going to give their all to win this game for their fallen teammate. Look for the Cardinals to play with alot of emotion this Sunday. They may not be able to win this one, but I believe that they will keep it close
2) Cardinals are tough at home.
Last season the Cardinals managed to beat the Packers, 49ers, Bengals and Vikings at home outright, while playing close games against Carolina, Baltimore, and St. Louis.
The Patriots really have no preparation for the 100+ degree weather that they are going to be facing here in the desert. Look for some of the Patriots players to become dehydrated or cramp up during the game.
More information will become available in the upcoming days, am I insane or can the Cardinals really cover against the defending Super Bowl Champs? "
Also written there:
"I think you are ignoring LOADS of precedent that includes Super Bowl winners on the road the following year, the Patriots inability to beat anyone by more than 6 points on the road last year (except, coincidentally, Philadelphia in week 2), and the above mentioned AZ ability to keep it close at home.
The Pats are not a team that is designed to blow folks out. If they go up by two TDs points against AZ they will get super conservative, not score much more, try to work the clock, and will ultimately allow AZ to climb back into the game."
Some more:
"In addition to the anti-superbowl teams theory (1-0-1 so far ATS this year), home dogs of 7 points or more have been gold over the years. Also, favored road teams coming off of a home win let down some too (mainly the defense, as a lot of these games go over the total).
As always, these are past trends, which could change at any moment.
But there seems to be a lot of them going against the Patriots this week. "
Even more:
"AZ is definitely a good play here. AZ lost only one game at home last year by more than 8 points. They beat Green Bay, Minnesota, SF and Cincy at home and lost to Carolina and St. Louis by just 3 points. Now that I think about it, the only inter-divisional home game they lost was to Baltimore. Maybe teams that don’t regularly play there, unlike their divisional rivals, really can’t cope with the heat.
On the other hand, the last time New England won a road game by more than 8 points was in Week 2 last year at Philly. But the perception is that NE is so great and AZ is so bad, that I expect this line to grow another point at least to provide even better value."
And more:
"This game is a massive trap. The line is so low because Vegas knows they can trick average Joe fan into beting that the Pats cover the spread. The reality of it is, the Cards barely lost any home game last year, and probably have a better team as well.
Take the Cards and run. "
link: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=104598&hl=tillman