Was This A Stupid Push?

[RPatterson]

I'm 14th out of 16 remaining players, 7600 chips, 1200 bb. It's folded to me on the button with T8offsuit. I move all-in. The BB had a big stack and was playing a bit on the loose side, so I pretty much expected a call. I was willing to go head to head with T8 vs. whatever he had for the shot at doubling up there.

Was that stupid? Should I have waited for a better time? The table had been real agressive and pretty loose, and I wasn't sure I would have a spot before the bb came around again. I felt alright about going up with 8T vs. whatever he had, there was like 1000 in antes too.

Thoughts?

[Burno]

Given your description of the BB, I don't like it at all. T8o is garbage, I think you definitely have time to wait for a better spot.

[donny5k]

I'd wait for at least QJ or king high if you know he is calling. You have a good chance of getting a better opportunity than that.

[77rules]

A push with T8 is a steal move as far as I'm concerned. You don't think a steal will work here, which pretty much means that you're hoping T8 is the best hand. Against a random hand, T8 will win about 50 percent of the time, against two random hands, it's about 33 percent.

What are the chances you'll be picking up a better hand in the next couple of hands? Let's define a better hand as either A high or pair. The probability of getting that in any given hand is about 20 percent, or 90 percent in the next ten hands.

If you know you're going to get called, you want to be called with a better hand than T8, and there's a better than 90 percent chance you'll pick up such a hand in the next ten hands.

In short, I'd wait.

[Garland]

If your BB opponent is on the loose side with a big stack, it's definitely a bad push.

You get called = You're in trouble.

Garland

[RPatterson]

There is a good chance I'll have a hand better than T8 soon. Only it will be behind a raiser, or from a mid or early seat. I'd rather have T8 vs. 1 random hand than Ax vs. a raise in front of me. The propability of being dealt a better hand is completely irrelevant to me because that better hand probably has more of a shot at being dominated than T8 does vs. the big stack bb.

[RPatterson]

But I'm in trouble no matter what. Also even though he is loose doesn't mean he has J8 or better every hand. T8 isn't horrible headsup.

[wilkcards]

[ QUOTE ]
But I'm in trouble no matter what. Also even though he is loose doesn't mean he has J8 or better every hand. T8 isn't horrible headsup.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously, you lost the hand. What did the BB hold? (i think it was a bad push also, a steal only works if there is a chance the BB will fold, and clearly this was a steal attempt)

[reddred]

I have to agree with posters.....I think with you holding @ 6xBB in chips you are hardly at the point where you need to pick a hand and go all in......sure it's getting close to crunch time, and if I felt the BB would fold to All-in, then I might steal. But no way way I go all in w/ 10/8o if I think I'll get called. There are varying debates on how long to wait in that bubble situation b4 making a move, and I am sort of inclined to wait as long as possible for at least a decent hand to make my move with. I think you had more time here. I understand your "position " argument, but If I get a good hand, or even luck out and get a great hand, I hope there is a caller or two so I can have a chance to maybe triple up or better.

[77rules]

[ QUOTE ]
<snip>Only it will be behind a raiser, or from a mid or early seat.

[/ QUOTE ]
The problem with mid and early seats are the chances somebody will call you, right? As it is now, you _know_ you will get called. Not much of a difference really (unless there's a suicide pact with multiple all ins, but that's really not that common).
[ QUOTE ]
I'd rather have T8 vs. 1 random hand than Ax vs. a raise in front of me. The propability of being dealt a better hand is completely irrelevant to me because that better hand probably has more of a shot at being dominated than T8 does vs. the big stack bb.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, any two cards can win I guess, but T8 is a dog against half the hands out there, and without fold equity, I think all in is a bad move here.

[Stoneii]

Only reason I would like this was if I was even shorter stacked, took the gamble in your position and, if it paid off I just know with the advertising that my next all-in will get called (which is hopefully with a hand)

stoneii /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[mackthefork]

I think i would push and hope the guy has A5o or something idiotic like that, as long as there is no T or 8 you can live with it as a short stack in my opinion, if you lose you lose no big deal, hope for a 40% chance of doubling up. Theres my two cents anyway its not so bad, and you only have 4 or 5 hands to find something not 10.

Regards Mack

[Dov]

I think this wasn't so bad given that you have less than 10BB and a 1K ante on every hand. This means that you will not see 10 more hands.

This is changed somewhat by the fact that you know BB will call you. I think it is still close, especially if you know SB will fold b/c you will have the SB as dead money on a 50/50 shot against a random hand.

Of course if BB is selective at all about the hands he will play, this becomes wrong. Any hand he is likely to play will have you in trouble.

In addition, if you are not the shortest stack at the table, I wouldn't even consider this move. The other stacks will have to take chances first, and you may even get lucky enough to witness a big stack confrontation. You don't have a good chance of winning one of the top prizes, but there is no reason why you can't make it to the money if there are other shorter stacks than you.

Dov

[Bernas]

[ QUOTE ]
This is changed somewhat by the fact that you know BB will call you. I think it is still close, especially if you know SB will fold b/c you will have the SB as dead money on a 50/50 shot against a random hand.

Of course if BB is selective at all about the hands he will play, this becomes wrong. Any hand he is likely to play will have you in trouble.



[/ QUOTE ]

I think the opposite is true actually. I would be more apt to push with 8 10 if I knew the BB was selective about his hands. Then there would be much higher folding equity.

[Bernas]

[ QUOTE ]
There is a good chance I'll have a hand better than T8 soon. Only it will be behind a raiser, or from a mid or early seat. I'd rather have T8 vs. 1 random hand than Ax vs. a raise in front of me. The propability of being dealt a better hand is completely irrelevant to me because that better hand probably has more of a shot at being dominated than T8 does vs. the big stack bb.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is actually a contradiction to what you said before. If you waited for a better hand and someone raised before you, that doesn't mean they have a better hand than you or that you are dominated. At least not if the table is as loose as you described. If you had described the table as tight than you would be absolutely right and the play with 10,8 would have been the right play.

[jwvdcw]

You have plenty of chips compared to the blinds...why are you so eager to push? Be patient and wait for a hand. You can see about 30 more hands with your chip stack!

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this wasn't so bad given that you have less than 10BB and a 1K ante on every hand. This means that you will not see 10 more hands.


[/ QUOTE ]

How do you figure that?

7600 chips, 600/1200 blinds, 100 ante on every hand(if there is 1000 in antes in the pot in a 10 person hand- he wasn't totally clear on this)

[Cleveland Guy]

[ QUOTE ]
The table had been real agressive and pretty loose, and I wasn't sure I would have a spot before the bb came around again. I felt alright about going up with 8T vs. whatever he had, there was like 1000 in antes too.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

My first thought is that you made this whole thing up.

Assuming there are 16 left, it's hard to imagine a loose and agressive table. Usually my experiences have told me these tables are pretty tight as we get closer and closer to reaching a final table.

2nd - you added the ante in there at the last minute. If there are 16 left, it should be 8 per table, so I'm not sure what the ante is? Maybe it's only 800 in total ante and you each had to ante 100?

3rd- you left out a lot of details. What was the field size? how many place? are you in the money? on the bubble? etc.

4th- this table is loose and agressive yet it's folded to you on the button? Possible everyone caught crap here, but then I'd assume a big stack in LP would have made a blind steal.


Okay- so assuming it's real, or more likely this happened to you at another time. When you push with 10-8 off what do you expect to get called with? A loose player that made it this late isn't always a stupid player.

So He will probably either have a suite connector, or Q high. Either way, your either a slight dog, a big dog, or a very big dog if he has a hand. In your next few hands I'm sure you will see a better hand than 10 High.

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The table had been real agressive and pretty loose, and I wasn't sure I would have a spot before the bb came around again. I felt alright about going up with 8T vs. whatever he had, there was like 1000 in antes too.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

My first thought is that you made this whole thing up.

Assuming there are 16 left, it's hard to imagine a loose and agressive table. Usually my experiences have told me these tables are pretty tight as we get closer and closer to reaching a final table.

2nd - you added the ante in there at the last minute. If there are 16 left, it should be 8 per table, so I'm not sure what the ante is? Maybe it's only 800 in total ante and you each had to ante 100?

3rd- you left out a lot of details. What was the field size? how many place? are you in the money? on the bubble? etc.

4th- this table is loose and agressive yet it's folded to you on the button? Possible everyone caught crap here, but then I'd assume a big stack in LP would have made a blind steal.


Okay- so assuming it's real, or more likely this happened to you at another time. When you push with 10-8 off what do you expect to get called with? A loose player that made it this late isn't always a stupid player.

So He will probably either have a suite connector, or Q high. Either way, your either a slight dog, a big dog, or a very big dog if he has a hand. In your next few hands I'm sure you will see a better hand than 10 High.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed completely. I also think this could be a fishing trip.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm 14th out of 16 remaining players, 7600 chips, 1200 bb. It's folded to me on the button with T8offsuit. I move all-in. The BB had a big stack and was playing a bit on the loose side, so I pretty much expected a call. I was willing to go head to head with T8 vs. whatever he had for the shot at doubling up there.

Was that stupid? Should I have waited for a better time? The table had been real agressive and pretty loose, and I wasn't sure I would have a spot before the bb came around again. I felt alright about going up with 8T vs. whatever he had, there was like 1000 in antes too.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

So 600/1200 blinds with a 100 ante? I am guessing you are 8 handed here?

I would wait for a better spot. At this point in a tourney, most people are feeling emmense pressure to win a pot ASAP. You have to resist this pressure. It is very difficult to remain calm when you get short stacked, but even if you go through you blinds again without seeing a hand you will still have 5000 left. That means (assuming the stakes arent about to go up) you can look at about 16 hands to look at before you take the big blind for the second time. When it is one hand before your second big blind, you will have 4200 I think. That is still > 3BB, so your pre flop raises will still have some folding equity. If you double up when you are at 4200, you will end up with more chips than you have now. In the mean time, a few people may bust because they acted rashly due to the pressure. (Of course that throws off all the chip caluculations, but that is a minor consideration here.)

Now, if you wait, you will almost definitely get a better spot to push in. Maybe it will be checked to you when there are really tight blinds or maybe you will pick up a nice hand and double through. Many times I have been in horrible chip position late in a tourney and caught a rush to get healthy. It takes a lot of discipline to not force things when you are short stacked, (it is one of the hardest things to do IMO), but once it pays off a time or two it should be easier.

By pushing here you are really just gambling (since you have next to zero folding equity against these blinds). This is not a good place to gamble, you are nearing the end of the tourney, and the payouts go up rapidly at the final table. Also, there are two shorter stacks than you. Just bide your time and let others fling their chips around until you find a good spot.

[bigfishead]

Stupid is as stupid does. But you already knew that. Why even ask?

[bigfishead]

I wish I had read some of your comments to the replies before I originally posted. All your trying to do is justify a dumbass move and claim it as your brilliance.

If you dont really want to hear the truth from people on the forum, dont ask. Your question has hardly even got any debateable merit too it.

I have a great idea tho. Print out your original question, your responses to the particular answers given, as well as those answers. Tape them next to your bathroom mirror for 2 yrs. Hang a pencil and an 8 1/2" x 11" notebook next to these. Every time you go into the bathroom to scratch your ass, shave, brush your teeth etc, if you read it and think of anything about it...write it down. If you haven't turned 180 degrees within 24 months take a 38 cal revolver and shoot your big toe off. It will equall the pain of 2 yrs of losing, bad play you should have experienced by then.

Gawd dam I am a funny mo/fo...I like this idea...Hell I think I may do it on a leak or two I think I have.

[jah0550]

If you don't have anything nice to say, then don't say anthing at all.

[bigfishead]

That was nice.

All of the orignal posters comments were arguments to opinions given to him. He clearly wanted to get justification. Personally I believe he is bothered by this ho-hum hand because he knows it's stupid but wants to justify it. I could be wrong but I didnt notice where anyone was in agreement with him making this move given the conditions. And at least a couple opinions came from very knowledgeable and studied, profitable players.

May I take a guess this player/poster is under 23yrs of age?
Why? becuause I and most of us "knew it all" then too.

Those that truly want to know the error of there ways ask and listen. They dont try to justify. If they knew they were right in the first place they probably wouldnt ask. They certainly wouldnt offer rebutle in the form of justification, but in the form of further depth. Being able to read people at the poker table also helps to read people here.

[RPatterson]

I appreciate reading all of your opinions on what I should have done. It seems the vast majority of you feel I should have folded. Part of me thinks I should have folded and hoped I got a strong hand to double up with. The other part says try to double up now.

Part of it might be that I don't care about making the final table or crawling as far as I can in the money. I only want to finish in the top 3. We started to get paid at 50 and there were 417 entrants but the pay still wasn't much until about 5th.

Bigfishhead when we debate about how we should play hands this is how we improve. If everyone agreed with each other we wouldn't get much accomplished.

My main thing was I was willing to double up there so I would have an adequate stack to start building for the final table. I am not really interested in playing tight and being in 10th or 9th place at the final table.

[bigfishead]

numerous times I have gone from barely, and I mean barely in the money, to barely, and I mean barely to the next decent pay lvl, to barely and I mean barely final table, to suddenly 4 players left with me at the bottom to 3 players left and me in 2nd to chip leader and taking the money.

I suggest not listening to gamboolero theories unless you feel you game is that much weaker than your opponents and it's the only way you can get to that top 5 you want so badly. If that be the case then GAMBOOL you must.

Your responses (the 2 I saw from the early AM hrs) were obviously of a nature of justifying your move, as I have already stated. But I think you also know it was a huge mistake. I have no inclinations to "pull punches" when it comes to saying how I see things. Leave that to the politically correct. I believe in the "tough love" theory if you will. Hence, my "stupid is as stupid does" post. My feeling is you still know it was a boneheaded move. It isnt like your the only one to have ever done it. 98% of us have.

[RPatterson]

The reason I'm defending my move is because I still like it, but I'm not 100% sure about. The answers for why it is wrong are not doing it for me.

And you've on numerous occasions, gone from short-stacked with 2 tables left, to winning the tournament? Well you play a hell of a short-stack, congrats.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]

And you've on numerous occasions, gone from short-stacked with 2 tables left, to winning the tournament? Well you play a hell of a short-stack, congrats.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have too, it's not as uncommon as you may think.

[RPatterson]

I'm just impressed that you guys have won numerous multi-table tournaments, nonetheless numerous ones while short-stacked. Must have a ton of MTT victories under your belt.

[Cleveland Guy]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason I'm defending my move is because I still like it, but I'm not 100% sure about. The answers for why it is wrong are not doing it for me.

And you've on numerous occasions, gone from short-stacked with 2 tables left, to winning the tournament? Well you play a hell of a short-stack, congrats.

[/ QUOTE ]

1. If you still like your move, and don't see why hoping to double up with a 10 high is not a Smart move, then I don't know how we can help you.

2. It's not as hard as you think to advance witha short stack. Usually the difference between a short stack and a medium/bigger stack is not as big as you'd think. Since many people get nervous and play crap like 10-8 off suit, those who can be patent and stick around and wait for the good hands can double up easily.

Lets say you folded the 10-8, dropped to 6000 - doubled up to 12000. Dropped to 10000 (blinds and antes) - now you double up again, and your at 20000. I'm guessing your a pretty normal sized stack all of a sudden

[Cleveland Guy]

[ QUOTE ]


My main thing was I was willing to double up there so I would have an adequate stack to start building for the final table. I am not really interested in playing tight and being in 10th or 9th place at the final table.

[/ QUOTE ]


I'll ask again - what hand did you think you'd get called by that your 10 high would be a favorite against? I understand the want for doubling up, but by putting all your money in as a probably dog, your helping finish 16th instead of 9th.