Turning a Set on 3-flush Board

[parappa]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed)

CO (t840)
Button (t1248)
SB (t342)
BB (t605)
UTG (t1485)
UTG+1 (t1340)
MP1 (t1595)
Hero (t545)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls t50, MP1 folds, Hero calls t50, CO folds, Button calls t50, SB calls t25, BB checks.

Flop: (t175) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (t175) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets t75, Hero raises to t570 (All-In), Button folds, SB folds, BB calls t495, UTG+1 folds.

River: (t1240) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t1240

[RiverTheNuts]

gotta love that river huh... wtf did BB have??? A5 or 56??? If he had trashy diamonds he shoulda bet out single diamonds on the flop

[parappa]

No, he was slowplaying the nut flush and I sucked out him with the 3. Every time a monster pops up I wonder if I should've seen it coming, so that's the main reason for the post. Should I have bet the set on the turn?

[RiverTheNuts]

I woulda probably min-raised maybe 2x more what the first better did, and if BB had the balls to come over the top of a bet and a raise I think its safe to say you're no good..

Then again you're very short stacked, and a bet like that woulda been begging for someone to go ahead and finish you off... im not sure... if you had a couple hundred more chips I like a small raise, but with the amount of chips you have you dont leave yourself alot of ways to play this that arent pretty transparent as an information raise...

[poboys]

You have ~T500 chips, at T50 so you are going to be scrambling as soon as the blinds go up. You have hit the set on the turn, and even though you are staring a flush flop in the face, I'd take my chance. My goal here, is to get all of his chips in the middle.

So, I'd never raise all-in on the turn. I'd raise his turn bet to say T150 or T175 or something that he'd be much more likely to call. Then on the river push no matter what.

I know this probably sounds stupid (and hell, maybe it is), but chances are if he calls your all in your beat, and if he can't beat you he folds. So, if you are commited to trying to double up, I'd string him along a little bit more.

[parappa]

That all makes sense. Is this a spot that you'd be willing to commit your stack?

[2planka]

I'd prefer a feeler raise here (something to wake up a slow played flush), but given our stack size we're in a bind. We're behind many hands, and the BB could have anything (free flop). I'm no fan of the min-raise, but this may be a spot for it.

It's just that the push seems like desperation to me, and I think it's still pretty early in the game.

The results worked for you, but something about the push feels wrong to me... can't quantify it right now.

[poboys]

[ QUOTE ]
That all makes sense. Is this a spot that you'd be willing to commit your stack?

[/ QUOTE ]


A T500 stack with a T50BB yes. If I had T1500 I'd play this a whole lot differently. Your stack and the blinds are the main reason why I would play this aggressively.

Interrested in seeing if others think I am nuts.

[2planka]

I understand the stack/blind issue, but I'm inclined to tone down the aggression given this terrible flop AND the number of limpers AND the underbet to open the turn with others still to act behind.

Something about it just seems incorrect. Clearly you don't call a push here, and the very best you can hope to see when you push is a singleton diamond chasing.

If this is a "take a shot and hope for the best" situation then fine, but I can't see how else this play works. Can someone crunch the numbers (I can't right now - work stuff)? This is a very tricky situation, IMO.

[poboys]

what numbers are you referring to?

Pr(two /images/graemlins/diamond.gif | 3 diamonds on flop)?
Pr of hitting your full house?

I agree that the number of limpers is a very bad thing, and, honestly really didn't consider it too carefully when thinking through the play.

[patrick dicaprio]

this is a play to make with extreme caution. many players will slowplay the flush and why shouldnt they? i wouldnt call all of my chips in this situation if I bet and were raised. given that you are short stacked i dont see how you can wait but if you were next to act and had some decent chips i would be hesitant before i risked them in this situation.

Pat

[Jason Strasser]

All this stuff about raising to 200 and such is silly. If I have 500 chips, and I am raising to 200 chips, I am committing my stack. Since I really wouldn't at all mind taking down the pot here, and giving someone with a single diamond a chance to river me, I am all for pushing. It is not a huge overbet or anything. Remember, the opponent underbet the pot on the flop.

The counter-argument to what I am saying is to flat call the flop, and treat your hand like a draw Omaha style. If you had a read on this player, and thought he may have the flush, a call (expecting over-calls) isn't bad either.

But I think pushing is correct. Raising less just doesnt make a ton of sense to me.
-Jason

[2planka]

Haven't been able to think about this too much since yesterday, but it still seems rash to push here. I respect Jason's posts, but this board is just screaming "slow played flush."

Now the stack size could very well justify a gamble here, even though we're likely behind on the turn. If it's as simple as that then it's clear.

Am I missing something more tricky? Apologies if I'm a bit brain dead on this one, but props to the OP for an interesting hand.

[2planka]

The flop was checked down. Turn was underbet. Seems like our opponent was hoping someone would catch up...

It's T75 to us. I don't like a flat call, but I like it better than a push here. This is what bothers me.

Guess what I'm struggling with is that we don't know where our set stands, and if there is any made flush out there we're only 20% or so to boat on the end. If we could count on two callers to our push then it's looking better, but with the other short stack involved it seems too much of a gamble to me.

Our stack size is the real problem, though. Being short makes this hand much trickier than it has to be. As others have said, a deeper stack gives us a couple more options.

Where is my thinking messed up?

[chill888]

This is a tough one.

There was a recent thread on a similar 3 flush board where the guy turned trip jacks. In that hand the way the betting went it was so clear he was beaten - he admitted as much at the end of the thread. But he threw away 3000 chips calling. 3 flush boards terrify me as 12 months ago I kept busting on them - I treat them with fear and respect.

Tis hand is a bit different. First, personally, I certainly wouldn't have limped preflop with the 44. I would have folded but understand the people that would have pushed. But given that he has called preflop and that the flop was checked around - AND most importantly GIVEN HIS CRAPPY CHIP POSITION - it's hard to fault a push on the turn. I don't really see another choice.

gl

[chill888]

KilgoreTrout,

I think we all agree that the guy is in some potential trouble, but he does have a set and the flop was checked and he is in chip trouble. the last thing he wants is to give a guy with a single diamond a free card not to mention the str8 draws out there. I am so tight usually in these situations but:

ONLY BECAUSE HE IS SO SHORT STACKED - a push is easily his best choice - cause there is a good chance he is leading - and there is still fold equity against a drawing hand (because the board would look really scary to any opponent with a flush / str8 draw). A fold is a choice if he has the greatest read in the world (ie. the guy's online voice is shaking)

[2planka]

Okay... I'm on the same page. Given stack size, pushing is the play. Not a spot I'd be entirely happy to be in, but I have been there and will be again.

[Jason Strasser]

Do you give every opponent who checks a monotone flop and bets small on the turn credit for a flush every time?

More than 50% of the time?

10%?

I mean, if in your game with your opponents, this means a flush 100% of the time--then sure, I'm all for playing this hand like a draw. Most of the time though, I expect them to be the ones drawing. Most competent players would bet a flush here--except maybe the ace high or even king high flush.

-Jason
P.S. I would bet the ace high flush on the flop.

P.P.S In the worst case scenario you have 10 outs.

[2planka]

Good points. I've only got a year's worth of SNG's but this is a pretty cool example of situations that give me trouble.

Perhaps I do tend to give my opponents more credit than I should in such instances, but by no means is it near 100%. The stack really clouded my assessment. The tourney rides on this decision, as I see it.

My difficulty with this situation was in not knowing where the set stood, and not having the stack to find out (and my uneasiness pushing "blind" on the turn). I could see value to several plays here, and was struggling with the arguments for each.

Ten outs, 23%, or whatever could be good enough to take a shot at getting back in this tourney. If it doesn't pan out then I just register for the next one. I think I was looking at the isolated hand and not thinking about getting back in the game.

I play lower buyin SNGs ($27's and $33's), and yes my opponents will routinely slow play hands like this. And yes they do pay the price often.

Good discussion.

[chill888]

KilgoreTrout,

Good posts. Just a watch out. Don't take away from this that you should be anything else but supercautious with a all one suited flop. See that recent post that i was discussing - sorry couldn't find it - where a set blew his big stack and was sooo clearly beaten. I absolutely hate this type of flop.

BUT sets are rare and small stacks need to pick their spots. And this post is a bit special.

When three of the same suit flop against one rationale opponent it is often a great time to make a TINY steal bet (super high +EV) - but then quickly give up if any response.


I'm only making this post cause I was afraid we had initimidated you into believing you can play fast against a flush board.

Usually IMHO NO.

GL

[2planka]

No worries. My preference is to avoid situations like this all together, but they do happen and this was an interesting example. I'll digress into stream of consciousness:

My thought process in this hand, assuming I limped with 44 (which I probably would not have done unless I had a very passive table), would have been: flop a set = play, otherwise fold. As the flop came down I'm folding to any bet. Checked down. Now this turn card hits my hand hard, but I'm thinking it's less than a coinflip that MHIG right now (but still can improve) and I don't have the stack to find out. A solid player will smell out any feeble raise I make and put me in, yet I'm reluctant to give up the hand to an underbet. My inclination would be to call the T75 and see if the remaining two players wake up. That's weak, but I'm in survival mode here. If I get lucky and get to see the river (and fill up), then a push is a no brainer. If someone wakes up then I've got more information (including notes/reads) with which to make my decision. Again, it's weak but I'm still reluctant to shove my stack with what could be the second best hand at this point.

EDIT: This seems like one of the rare times where a call on the turn could work, and that surprises me.

My thinking would be vastly different if my stack was even slightly larger. This is why I find this particular example so darn cool.

Thoughts on my thoughts?