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View Full Version : Stat Question - Big Leak?


Scotch78
09-13-2004, 10:41 AM
5,000 hands at PS $3-$6 6max

When I call a river bet, I'm only winning 26% of the time. I know that I only need to be right a small percentage of the time in order to show a profit, but this number still seems really low (my percentages for the other streets range from 48-52%).

Of the 160 times I've shown down a pair, I won 43% for a net loss of 1BB. Does top pair produce a lot of situations where playing it out is -EV, but has a better expectation than folding? Or is my suspicion correct, and these two stats are connected? Namely, I'm going too far with top pair.

Scott

PS What are other people's numbers for these two stats?

meow_meow
09-13-2004, 11:41 AM
I think you have to be careful of the "one pair" stat in PT, as I'm pretty sure it includes hands which you show down no pair with a paired board.

kiddo
09-13-2004, 12:13 PM
Where can you see this stat?

Not sure what it will tell you but if you win 26% and pot is bigger then 3BB its a good call.

Scotch78
09-13-2004, 12:56 PM
Under "More Details", towards the bottom. And I know my river calls as a whole are profitable, but 26% seems way below optimum.

Scott

Scotch78
09-14-2004, 12:55 AM
Bump. I would greatly appreciate it if some people posted their numbers for these stats. I suspect this is a big leak for me, and the quickest way to find out is by comparison. Thanx

Scott

Gazza
09-14-2004, 01:29 AM
I have 28 on the river, 43 for the turn, 51 for the other 2 streets.
With 1 pair I have a 43.39 % score at showdown

Gazza

kiddo
09-14-2004, 11:37 AM
I am winning 52% of my showdowns, win 38% of seen flops. And I am winning 25.53% when I call river. (aggression factor 1.53)... If you got a leak, I got it 2.

naphand
09-14-2004, 02:13 PM
That is correct. I have badgered Pat to put on a "only include hands where pockets are used" button (like the "only include hands thsat were not folded", which only works with Paradise hands it seems) but not joy yet... /images/graemlins/confused.gif