partypoker badbeat

[artybouch]

anyone know the probability of this happening?
it's 8888 losing to higher hand

both hole cards must be used

[Rah]

I'd say about 75%. Watch out for low quads, they are vulnerable to both higher quads and straight flushes.

[artybouch]

oh, so not as probable as me sleeping with your mom last night, which would be about 100% /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[Reef]

a friend told me that he read the odds of beating A's full of (picture card) was about 1 in 16K if all 10 saw the flop and checked it to the river. But in real play, it takes a lot longer since some people throw away potential winning Jackpot hands

So... 1 in (number much bigger than 16K)

[TomCollins]

The bad beat jackpot will probably hit $1 million at this rate.

[Bill Smith]

Probability of one player (table of 10) having pocket pair 88 or better = 0.276

Probability of one of remaining 9 players having a non-matching pocket pair 88 or better = 0.2355

So, probability of 2 players having non-matching pocket pairs 88 or better = 0.276 * 0.2355 = 0.065

To score a 4 of a kind that beats a 4 of a kind, four specific cards need to come onto the board in 5 cards. Correct me if I'm wrong, but that comes out to:

Chance of hitting 4 specific cards = (4/48 * 3/47 * 2/46 * 1/45) * 5 = 0.0000257

And therefore, the odds of 4 of a kind beating 4 of a kind using both hole cards: 0.0000257 * 0.065 = 0.00000167 = 598,707:1 odds

I have no idea if that's right or wrong, but it does assume both players go to the river.

The calculation for straight flush beating a straight flush or 4 of a kind is far more complicated and best left to a computer, but it is impossible to account for the situations where the potential bad beat hand is lost preflop or on the flop. In any case, it wouldn't shock me to see the jackpot reach half a mil, but I'd guess $250,000-$300,000 is more likely.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
anyone know the probability of this happening?
it's 8888 losing to higher hand

both hole cards must be used

[/ QUOTE ]
Here are some of Brian Alspach's calculations (http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/mag62/) on the probability of bad-beat jackpots in various poker games. He didn't cover the specific case of quad 8's beaten except in Omaha, and he also disallowed quads with trips on the board, which can happen both with quads over quads and a straight-flush over quads.

Although the problem looks doable to me now, the most natural technique is to ask Brian Alspach nicely.