Should you always call with an edge?

[sirtemple]

I was recently in a HU HE tourny, and at the early stages picked up A /images/graemlins/heart.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif and raised it up. My opp called and the flop came down 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif
My opp bet all-in on me. About T1400 into a T200 pot. I know he has top pair, and doubt he has an ace. (It turns out I was right) Knowing that; is it correct to call, beacuse I have 15 outs w/ 2 cards to come? I figure I'm about 55-45 favorite. I'm a slight favorite, and I'm getting slightly better than 1-1 on my call, so Math says I should call, but it doesn't feel right. To much risk on a draw perhaps, or maybe just not enough invested in the pot.

I was wondering, what is the correct move here? Does the players relative skills factor in here? Should weaker players call, and stonger players wait for better odds? Or does taking the edge, however small, make some players better?

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
I figure I'm about 55-45 favorite. I'm a slight favorite, and I'm getting slightly better than 1-1 on my call, so Math says I should call, but it doesn't feel right. To much risk on a draw perhaps...

[/ QUOTE ]

You are a favorite (about 51/52 - 49/48). Therefore, you should stop thinking of yourself as being on draw. You are not drawing. You are winning.

However, there's a very valid arguement for not risking your whole stack early in a tournament on what's essentially a 50/50 proposition.

[Whistler]

How good are you compared to your opponents?

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
I was wondering, what is the correct move here? Does the players relative skills factor in here? Should weaker players call, and stonger players wait for better odds? Or does taking the edge, however small, make some players better?

[/ QUOTE ]

In a ring game, you should take advantage of any edge, however small.

In a tourney, you sometimes have to pass up a small edge in order to give yourself a chance to take advantage of a bigger edge later. In this case, if you consider him to be a better player than you then you should call, if you think you are a better player then you should lean towards folding.

[whiskeytown]

exactly what I was gonna ask.

If I was up against a WCP, I'd take the coinflip.

RB

[pzhon]

The dead money in the pot is important. If this were even, then by folding you give up your rightful share of the 200 pot, 100 chips. That is a lot with only 3000 in the chip pool. You can't afford to give up 3% of the chips very often. Weigh the average future net mistakes if you fold against this mistake you are making now.

Although your read was correct in this case, you should worry about it. You don't know that you have 15 outs. Your opponent could have a heart, so that you have 14 outs. Your opponent could have AK or A7, so an ace won't help. Your opponent could have K4, so a 4 won't help. Your opponent could have a set, so you probably need to hit the flush, but might lose to a full house even if you make the flush. Your opponent could be semi-bluffing with 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif or Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, in which case you are a big favorite.

[BarronVangorToth]

Tournament play is different from ring game / real life action as survival is important so you might be best to avoid 51 / 49% propositions.

However, the same isn't (always) true in life.

If someone were to offer me to flip coins, when I'm right, I get $51, when I'm wrong, I'd pay him $49, I'd flip coins with him as long as he wanted.

HOWEVER.... same edge, different stakes: $51,000 when I'm right, $49,000 when I'm wrong, and I'm not so quick to jump into the coin-flipping game, despite the edge, as randomly losing a quick quarter-million isn't my idea of a gamble worth taking, despite the edge.

Everything in context.
Always.


Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com (http://www.BarronVangorToth.com)

[SevenStuda]

No, especially in not in tournaments.

-Dimitri

[MikeGuz]

I don't recommend taking the draw unless you are a weaker player and are looking for a double up or bust out. Tournaments are about survival early in a tournament it just isn't worth it.

I did make an exception to this rule a few weeks ago in a $150 buy in no rebuy - but they didn't sell out the 120 seats there were a few "blind out stacks" available to early bust outs.

It't 1st hand I have the bb mp player I know well raises the $50 blind to $300 all fold to sb who calls I look at ATs and call too. Flop comes 6 8 7 - 2 of my suit. SB checks, MP all in for $2700. I think it over if I bust I can buy one of the open stacks if I win I triple on the 1st hand. I call - mp has AA, sb hit a set of 7s and I bust out but I rebuy and come in 5th. Anyway there are exceptions to rules this is one.

[dogmeat]

Re: Quote: You are a favorite (about 51/52 - 49/48). Therefore, you should stop thinking of yourself as being on draw. You are not drawing. You are winning.

Dynasty - this is so obvious it should go without saying, except I keep forgetting.............. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif
Thanks for the reminder!

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[LetsRock]

It depends. (Surprise!)

If calling that bet will cripple you then no way. In tourney situations it's rarely correct to push slight edges on a bet that will cost you your seat.

If your against the wall and the blinds are going to eat you up, then probably - this may be your best bet to get back into things.

If you have a HUGE chip lead and the amount is not gonna hurt then maybe. Is the opponent one you fear with a larger stack? - probably not. Is the opponent going to just piss the chips away? - probably.

There's lots of variables in making big calls in tourney play.

I don't see your edge as being all that great - yes you have 14 outs, but you're not getting even close to correct odds to call just over even money. You only have about a 30% chance of winning and you need help.

I will rarely put my tourney on the line on a draw.

[Michael Davis]

"especially in not in tournaments."

Explain a situation where you would fold with an edge in a cash game. The "especially" in your statement makes little sense.

-Michael

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see your edge as being all that great - yes you have 14 outs, but you're not getting even close to correct odds to call just over even money. You only have about a 30% chance of winning and you need help.


[/ QUOTE ]

14 outs actually makes you a slight favorite.

[mistrpug]

[ QUOTE ]
"especially in not in tournaments."

Explain a situation where you would fold with an edge in a cash game. The "especially" in your statement makes little sense.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

Easy. Same situation as this one, the all-in is for your entire bankroll, and you are easily the best player at the table

[LetsRock]

[ QUOTE ]
14 outs actually makes you a slight favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you figure that? The other player has 31 "outs" to beat you?

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
14 outs actually makes you a slight favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you figure that? The other player has 31 "outs" to beat you?

[/ QUOTE ]
There are two cards to come. If there are no redraws, you lose only if you miss twice. That happens (31/45)(30/44) = 47.0% of the time.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=472545
K/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif
cards <font color="white">filler</font> EV
A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 0.516
K/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif 0.484

[xrongor]

you should always call when you think you can WIN. factors include the percentages and how well you read the table.

if you dont think you can win, dont call unless you're either purposely buying information or advertising.

randy

[xrongor]

[ QUOTE ]
HOWEVER.... same edge, different stakes: $51,000 when I'm right, $49,000 when I'm wrong, and I'm not so quick to jump into the coin-flipping game, despite the edge, as randomly losing a quick quarter-million isn't my idea of a gamble worth taking, despite the edge.


[/ QUOTE ]

well, if he let you flip the coin forever and you didnt have to pay til the end, how could you not?

randy

[Michael Davis]

If I have 22 on an AKQ flop I can win. Should I call. Suppose I have three opponents all who limped and have called one bet on the flop.

-Michael

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
My opp bet all-in on me. About T1400 into a T200 pot. I figure I'm about 55-45 favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you have an advantage, chip value is nonlinear heads-up. See the goal-oriented risk of ruin (http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/ror/goror.htm). In some models, the probability of winning with a fraction x of the chips takes the form (c^x-1)/(c-1), where c depends on your advantage or disadvantage.

In order to prefer (c^(1400/3000)-1)/(c-1) to .55, c&lt;=.511, so the probability of winning from the start of the match must be at least (.511^.5-1)/(.511-1) = 58.3%.

It's no accident that 58.3% is the 55% chance you estimate for this pot plus 3.3% = 100/3000, the fraction of the chip pool you put into the pot.

If you only have a 50% chance to win if you call all-in, you are better off folding if c&lt;=.765, corresponding to a 53.3% chance to win from the start.

[Scavengerfolk]

Is there benefit for you to fold here?

You did raise preflop and were called by a player that won't be able to beat you in the long run (he would not be counting so much on getting lucky this early on if he was a better player).

So let's say you allow this less skilled player to "bully you out of this pot." You certainly don't need this one pot to beat him over the long haul, but you will need the rest of your stack.

If all of what I just wrote is true of your situation then you should clearly fold and give him the impression that he can run over you. He'll bet strong at the wrong pot soon and you will not have to make as close a decision.

Peace,
Erick

[sirtemple]

Thanks for all the advice.

I see that the edge I had in this pot was less than the edge I had over my opp in terms of skill, therefore folding is the better option. A corollary would be that if you were severly outclassed you should be pushing your stack alot even when you were slightly behind - you would stand a better chance of winning than letting the skilled opp pick his spots.

Thanks for the insight.

Jason

[Louie Landale]

In a ring game you should call (except if you will be broke and its real hard to find a game this good). Early in a Tournament (when you are far from the paying positions) I would call (but others will disagree). Late in a tournament (close or in the paying positions) you should fold.

But that presumes you see his KQ.

Change your attitude: [1] You do not have a draw; you are a 5:4 favorite. [2] The fact that its a big bet into a small pot is irrelevant since you are the favorite [3] How much you've invested doesn't matter. [4] 5:4 favorite getting 8:7 money is NOT a "small favorite". That's more than the money you make raising early with AK

- Louie