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colgin

08-19-2004, 09:17 AM

Table is very loose.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $3.
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, MP3 calls, CO (poster) calls, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (21.33 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (7 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (21.16 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (7 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, Hero raises, UTG calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

River: (33.16 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets, CO folds, Button calls, Hero folds, UTG folds, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 36.16 BB
Main Pot: 36.16 BB, between MP2, MP3 and Button.

Did I pump up my draw too much or just right.

Tosh

08-19-2004, 09:27 AM

Um fold preflop?

Postflop played itself.

papawawa

08-19-2004, 09:44 AM

Don't raise the turn on a draw like that; you're paying someone off.

Rico Suave

08-19-2004, 09:49 AM

Colgin:

[ QUOTE ]
Did I pump up my draw too much or just right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Flop is routine. I am not sure the raise is bad, but with 7 players seeing the turn on the 2 tone flop with that much action, and the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif and K /images/graemlins/heart.gif unaccounted for, I probably do not make the turn value raise. But perhaps I am a 'fraidy cat.

Oh, and I fold this preflop.

--Rico

razor

08-19-2004, 10:14 AM

He's just picked up 4 more outs giving him a total of about 5 Million, may as well get some more money in the pot...

razor

08-19-2004, 10:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
the A/images/graemlins/heart.gif and K/images/graemlins/heart.gif unaccounted for

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/mad.gif

I may not raise here because A)I'm a little slow sometimes and it didn't cross my mind or B)I don't realize I have 5 Million outs or C)some other razor is ignorant reason... but it would never be because I'm worrying about Ax/images/graemlins/heart.gif or Kx/images/graemlins/heart.gif... I'm stubborn the way.

nothumb

08-19-2004, 10:28 AM

Preflop the odds that your suited queen is out-flush-drawn are pretty low, and once the flush draw comes off a Bayes whatchamacallit makes it even lower. If you were to lose this pot 10% of the time you make your hand, I think you still have a value raise here, with so many callers.

So I agree with you - not raising here is bad. I would definitely have pumped it.

I also would have folded pre-flop, so long as I was sober.

NT

InchoateHand

08-19-2004, 10:34 AM

Agreed with everything, just wanted to note that the final qualifier, is a pretty big qualifier.

Rico Suave

08-19-2004, 10:39 AM

Razor:

I admit I missed the additional outs with double belly buster. I need to go back to board reading 101. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

2:1 shot getting 5:1, yeah, that is quite an overlay. Passing it up is probably wrong.

--Rico

papawawa

08-19-2004, 10:41 AM

good call, I didn't even realize the gutshot.

papawawa

08-19-2004, 10:50 AM

Granted you picked up an additional 4 K outs on the turn; I was just wondering what you were trying to accomplish with the turn check raise? There are so many people in for one bet, do you believe some of them will fold for one more? Or is this a value or semi-bluff raise? In either case, I don't think this is the right move, the pot is HUGE so no one will fold for one more bet; you are drawing so you can't have the best hand; and you aren't drawing to the nuts, so a semi-bluff seems wrong. According to Sklansky, you should typically check/call if you have outs in this situation, and based on the circumstances, I would agree.
UTG seems to like his hand a lot and is very aggressive. With this in mind I think a better play would be to bet out. UTG is likely to raise forcing the rest of the field to call 2 cold. I don't think this is the right play, just better than the check raise. Any thoughts?

Tosh

08-19-2004, 10:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Granted you picked up an additional 4 K outs on the turn; I was just wondering what you were trying to accomplish with the turn check raise? There are so many people in for one bet, do you believe some of them will fold for one more? Or is this a value or semi-bluff raise? In either case, I don't think this is the right move, the pot is HUGE so no one will fold for one more bet; you are drawing so you can't have the best hand; and you aren't drawing to the nuts, so a semi-bluff seems wrong. According to Sklansky, you should typically check/call if you have outs in this situation, and based on the circumstances, I would agree.
UTG seems to like his hand a lot and is very aggressive. With this in mind I think a better play would be to bet out. UTG is likely to raise forcing the rest of the field to call 2 cold. I don't think this is the right play, just better than the check raise. Any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is for pure value, you don't expect anyone to fold for 1 more, thats why you raise.

Tosh

08-19-2004, 10:59 AM

He has a double gutshot, he will have 15 outs the majority of the time.

elindauer

08-19-2004, 11:02 AM

IMO, perfectly played on all streets. Note that you can check-raise no matter where the bet comes from in this huge pot. If they call, great. If not, there's more chance that an offsuit queen will be good, and more chance that a river bet will take it down unimproved (what a coup that would be!).

Since three players have shown strength on different streets, a river bluff, even in this huge pot, is probably not worth it, but I hope you at least considered it. Your bet will certainly get respect as a made hand, and there is some chance that everybody thinks they are drawing and missed and will "save a bet".

Well played.
Eric

arkady

08-19-2004, 12:17 PM

Definitely like the turn against all those villains, but pre-flop I have a problem with. Ok, I will call one at a table like this, but two with QTs? I think pre-flop that is a mistake.

Lost Wages

08-19-2004, 01:17 PM

I was just wondering what you were trying to accomplish with the turn check raise?

You have a huge pot equity edge here, it's a raise for value. You want (and expect) all 5 opponents to call your checkraise. You have 15 outs to a straight or flush so you are about 2:1 against but you are getting 5:1 on your raise. You would happily cap it with those odds. This is a very important concept in loose games so make sure that you understand it.

Lost Wages

Louie Landale

08-19-2004, 01:24 PM

On the turn I count 6 outs to the nuts and another 7 outs to the 3rd nuts and another 2 outs to a flush with a paired board. That's 15 outs. There are about 47 unaccounted for cards making you a 2:1 dog to make a straight or better, getting a whopping 6 callers. Lets exaggerate and say you will lose fairly often making you a 3:1 dog to actually win.

3:1 dog getting 6:1 for you money. Anybody who doesn't like that shouldn't be playing for keeps. Getting the last bet in on the flop and turn isn't a good enough excuse; you should have pumped it even more.

- Louie

The fact that you got all that action with your draw justifies the negative Skalanski dollars invested before the flop.

colgin

08-19-2004, 01:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Getting the last bet in on the flop and turn isn't a good enough excuse; you should have pumped it even more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wish I could have. How do you do that when everybody just calls your bet. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that you got all that action with your draw justifies the negative Skalanski dollars invested before the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my thinking. I paused before my pre-flop call. I expected to get around 16:2 immediate odds assuming everyone calls behind me (pretty assured). Even if it is capped I am still around 7:1. So I have about the right odds to flop a flush draw. If I do, with this many callers I should be getting the best of it the rest of the hand. If I hit my hand I will certainly make up the lost pre-flop bets. However, I thought some people would disagree with this thinking and I was not 100% sure myself so I posted the hand here.

Colgin

colgin

08-19-2004, 02:08 PM

As proof that top pair often does win in a big multihand pots, Button took down the pot with A /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif.

Thanks for your responses everyone.

Louie Landale

08-20-2004, 01:15 PM

Yup. I am EXTREMELY confident that I am a big-life-long winner betting best one pair into a 6-opponent field on the river.

Some folks say "But I only win 1/3 of the time against 6 opponents". To which I say "Right. 2 times you lose X and 1 time you win 6X. That's a net 4X over 3 hands or 1.33X per hand. That compares very favorably to the 1X you win heads-up against someone drawing dead; a situations EVERYONE likes are rightfully so." So they turn their fear into "checks" and fail to build a good pot.

- Louie

razor

08-20-2004, 01:51 PM

Louie RULES!

woo724

08-20-2004, 01:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
On the turn I count 6 outs to the nuts and another 7 outs to the 3rd nuts and another 2 outs to a flush with a paired board. That's 15 outs. There are about 47 unaccounted for cards making you a 2:1 dog to make a straight or better, getting a whopping 6 callers. Lets exaggerate and say you will lose fairly often making you a 3:1 dog to actually win.

3:1 dog getting 6:1 for you money. Anybody who doesn't like that shouldn't be playing for keeps. Getting the last bet in on the flop and turn isn't a good enough excuse; you should have pumped it even more.

- Louie

The fact that you got all that action with your draw justifies the negative Skalanski dollars invested before the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've only recently started learning mathematical side of this game. And it appears that I still have some problems counting outs. I hope someone can help me out.

Ok, after the turn card, I see that there are 4 hearts out. So you get 9 outs for flush. and 3 additional outs for straight. So isnt that 12 outs for straight or better? Can someone explain to me how this hand has 15 outs?

Also this means that there is 46 unaccounted cards at this point isnt it? (52 - 6)? so doesnt that make you 12:46? roughly 4:1?

confused /images/graemlins/confused.gif

razor

08-20-2004, 02:05 PM

either a 9 or a K give our hero a straight

9 hearts + 3 non-heart 9s + 3 non-heart Ks = 15

razor

08-20-2004, 02:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
so doesnt that make you 12:46? roughly 4:1?

[/ QUOTE ]

Since it's actually 15 outs we'll use that...

Hero has 15 good cards out of 46 unknown cards.

31 cards Hero loses
15 cards Hero wins (we'll assume all outs are clean)

therefore in ODDS TO format it would be

31 to 15

or

31:15

or

2:1

JTrout

08-20-2004, 02:20 PM

Here's my effort. (I had my pattern mapper working, THAT's why I played the flop the way I did /images/graemlins/laugh.gif) Do ties count?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
2 folds, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, 6 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.66 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP1 calls.

River: (10.66 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 16.66 BB
Main Pot: 16.66 BB, between Hero and MP1. > Split: Hero (8.33 BB), MP1 (8.33 BB).

Results in white below: 
Hero shows Kh Qs (straight, ace high).
MP1 shows Qh As (straight, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins 8.33 BB. MP1 wins 8.33 BB.

GuyOnTilt

08-20-2004, 02:38 PM

Hey Colgin,

Your preflop call gets 5 O's on the GoT Boo Scale.

Your flop check gets 1 O.

The rest of the hand gets like, 6 non-O's, so good hand I guess.

But yeah, since nobody else brought it up yet, you should bet out at the flop there. What's your play if it gets checked around to the preflop aggressor, as will happen a lot of the time? Your relative position should dictate a bet.

I saw a regular 2+2'er call from the BB after a MP open-raise, one cold-caller, and a solid Button 3-bet once with KJs in my regular online game. I've been happy he's been in that game ever since. Save these preflop calls for those who are less wise, less solid, and have larger trust funds.

GoT

BeerMoney

08-20-2004, 03:40 PM

YOU PEOPLE NEED TO REALIZE THAT THE TURN RAISE WAS A WELL EXECUTED VALUE RAISE AS ALREADY POINTED OUT. YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND THIS! HE WASN'T TRYING TO GET PEOPLE TO FOLD. For every bet he put in he was getting 5 people to call on a draw he was 2:1 to hit.

Colgin, nice job builing a juicy pot, too bad it wasn't yours.