Pockets are top pair until river

[AncientPC]

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (10.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (14.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, BB calls $0.50 (All-In).

Final Pot: 22.75 BB

My question is, should I have folded to the bet on the river? To the 3-bet? I'll post results later.

Edit: This was fairly early into the session so I didn't really have a good read on any of the players.

[Bill Smith]

You really should 3-bet this flop. If you get capped here or someone plays back on a later street, then you have the right to slow down.

On the river, the pot is large enough that you should call for 1 BB, but fold to the 3-bet. There isn't even a 5% chance you are good here.

[The13atman]

I agree with Bill. I'm 3-betting this flop for information. If it's capped, then I go into call down mode unless the turn was a Q. I'd also fold on the river, you're beaten by way too many hands at this point.

[Navers]

I don't like the BB coming out of dormancy, he was just calling the other bets before he started to bet the river. I agree with Bill Smith, raising the flop is a must. There's a fair chance you have the best hand here. Protect it by raising.


I'm not sure, but would another alternative be to raise the turn instead of the flop? raising the flop would inadvertently give them better odds on the turn to call to see a river, whereas raising the turn would be better because the odds of hitting are much smaller because there's only one card to see and the flop isn't as big as it could've been had you raised the flop. Thoughts?

[Nottom]

You should have done something with your hand long before you got to the river. As it is, you got there and have no clue where you stand.

Either way, once the BB check-raises your hand should be in the muck.

[bisonbison]

3-bet the flop. Raise the turn.

[AncientPC]

Results in white below (gotta love Party players' stupidity): <font color="white">
MP2 shows 4c 5d (straight, five high).
Hero shows Qc Qd (one pair, queens).
Outcome: MP2 wins 22.75 BB.
(UTG+1 mucked AhKh)
</font>

[bisonbison]

(gotta love Party players' stupidity):

Dude, you misplayed your hand. Nobody won genius prizes on this one, so try to show your opponent some respect.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
Results in white below (gotta love Party players' stupidity):

[/ QUOTE ]


Don't call other people stupid while playing the hand worse than they did.

[bisonbison]

Nottom, I like your style, even if you routinely show up in strategy threads and explain why I am wrong.

[AncientPC]

Sorry, I'm just a bit frustarated that someone would play 54o following a 3-bet and chase the river.

[bisonbison]

Sorry, I'm just a bit frustarated that someone would play 54o following a 3-bet and chase the river.

He flopped an OESD. He shouldn't fold postflop. And you don't want 54o to fold to a QQ raise preflop.

You need to learn to deal with the frustration of losing pots. It's how you make money.

[cnfuzzd]

im sensing a future bad beat post in the poker theory forum developing right here. Bison, you are still my hero.

peace

john nickle

[Gatts]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I'm just a bit frustarated that someone would play 54o following a 3-bet and chase the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I sometimes get killed with rags when I'm holding a monster five times in an hour. It happens. But it's the people who cap a with 68s (which I've seen twice - and lost to twice) that will make you money in the long run.

[Riposte]

[ QUOTE ]
And you don't want 54o to fold to a QQ raise preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I thought was true, but yesterday someone told me otherwise. Theoretically, if you have the best hand preflop and raise with it, do you want anyone to fold preflop? If so, whom?

[bisonbison]

This is what I thought was true, but yesterday someone told me otherwise.

First, let's assume you're in a showdown situation with no blinds, where every player is all-in for one bet preflop. QQ wins about 4 out of 5 times while paying 1 out of 2 bets.

Then add A9o. QQ wins about 6 out of 10 times while paying 1 out of 3 bets.

Then add KJs. QQ wins a little more than 1 of 3 while paying 1 of 4.

Then add 77. QQ wins about 3 of 10 while paying 1 of 5.

Then add T9s. QQ wins about 1 of 4 while paying 1 of 6.

For most of these sims, 54o is either the lowest or the second lowest in winning terms. 54o has a pretty hard time against any hand but 53o, 52o, 43o, 42o and 32o. There are only a couple hands you'd want to call more here.

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]
54o has a pretty hard time against any hand but 53o, 52o, 43o, 42o and 32o.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget 53s, 52s, 43s, 42s and 32s. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
This is what I thought was true, but yesterday someone told me otherwise. Theoretically, if you have the best hand preflop and raise with it, do you want anyone to fold preflop? If so, whom?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I have QQ in a multiway pot, I would like anyone with an A or K to fold (unless there are a bunch of them hogging each others outs). Check out how fast your EV drops when you add overcards to your opponents ...

pokenum -h qs qc - 9h 8h - 2d 4d - 6c 6d
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Qc 556013 51.20 528040 48.62 1955 0.18 0.512
9h 8h 204351 18.82 879702 81.00 1955 0.18 0.189
4d 2d 162405 14.95 921648 84.87 1955 0.18 0.150
6c 6d 161284 14.85 922769 84.97 1955 0.18 0.149

pokenum -h qs qc - 9h 8h - 2d 4d - 6c 6d - ac js
Holdem Hi: 850668 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Qc 300205 35.29 549508 64.60 955 0.11 0.353
9h 8h 163440 19.21 686273 80.67 955 0.11 0.192
4d 2d 128513 15.11 721200 84.78 955 0.11 0.151
6c 6d 126529 14.87 723184 85.01 955 0.11 0.149
Js Ac 131026 15.40 718687 84.49 955 0.11 0.154

pokenum -h qs qc - 9h 8h - 2d 4d - 6c 6d - ac js - kc 5c
Holdem Hi: 658008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Qc 156957 23.85 500546 76.07 505 0.08 0.239
9h 8h 128541 19.53 528962 80.39 505 0.08 0.195
4d 2d 95236 14.47 562267 85.45 505 0.08 0.145
6c 6d 92801 14.10 564702 85.82 505 0.08 0.141
Js Ac 85490 12.99 572013 86.93 505 0.08 0.130
Kc 5c 98478 14.97 559025 84.96 505 0.08 0.150

Obviously you would like to see those overcards fold.

[papawawa]

3 bet that flop, you most likely have the best hand. It also might buy you a free card on the turn. After the Ace rivers and BB wakes up, I think its a prety clear fold tho.

[kiemo]

I must be getting really good at reading hands or I am just putting players on monsters too easily, as I put MP2 on the OESD with a 4 on the flop.

[skierdude1000]

And you can't blame AK for being agressive there, he had some outs that he was trying to buy/build the pot with such a big pot preflop. Your misplay of the QQ cost you less than it would've to play it right, but you will win more by playing it right and protecting your pot equity in this hand which was huge on the flop to say the least.