using ESPN to practice counting outs

[kleinstadt1]

Hi all-

Have been reading here quite a bit the past few months, and really enjoy it. Now onto my question:

SSH really drives in the idea that counting outs is vitally important to being a winning poker player. I'm okay at this, but know I could improve.

A friend decided to practice when he was playing online. This is a good idea, but there is no "answer key". If I am continually miscounting outs, then I am just reinforcing mistakes. I love the hand quizzes in SSH and Ciaffone's Mid-Limit book.

Thing is, I need more.

My idea: use my newly-purchased TiVo and WSOP on ESPN. After the flop, extrapolate the percentages (33% becomes 2:1) then extrapolate outs (about 13 for 2:1?). Then make sure I can account for all the outs, and that I don't count incorrect ones.

Finally, my question: has anyone ever noticed errors in these percentages? I'm leery of using ESPN as my poker answer key.

Thanks for you help.

[LowDown22]

I suppose you could try doing this. I just see this generating a lot of confusion for you. Figuring your outs is more or less putting your opponent on a hand and then deciding what you need to hit in order to beat it. Watching ESPN, you skip the part of putting someone on a hand (an extremely important skill) and are just figuring probabilities. Practice with the play money games. You don't need to be perfect, your skills will grow with time.

[kleinstadt1]

I didn't want to make it sound like I'm a total newbie. My win rate at .5/1 PP is 3.5 BB/100 after 12,000 hands, according to PT.

I want to make sure I'm not counting outs that would make people's straights and flushes (like if I'm drawing to two pair or trips). I think I do that a lot.

[ChicagoTroy]

This was like a $10-20 hand I had Saturday. I limp-reraised with AKh. Flop came KJT with two diamonds, and I started getting a lot of action from three players. It became pretty clear that if I was behind, a Q was an out (except for Qd) but another K or A might not be, unless more than one came. Rags came and I smoked those foos anyway, but it would have been nice to know where I stood mathmatically.

[NuShoes]

Newbie question here but what is SSH?

[PITTM]

he is referring to small stakes hold em, the new ed miller book.

rj

[NuShoes]

[ QUOTE ]
he is referring to small stakes hold em, the new ed miller book.

rj

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks.

[VeraN]

Wouldn't it be easier just to count outs by % instead of 4 to 1 ratio etc? All you gotta do is multiply by 4 on the turn and river, 2 on the river.

http://www.pokernoob.com

[The4thFilm]

Keep in mind ESPN uses all of the players' hole cards in figuring the percentages.

[kleinstadt1]

I use the ratios because I then try to justify a call or fold based on pot odds (paying 12:1, getting 5.5:1, etc.) That's the way I think at the table, so it would flow more naturally for me, although your way is probably easier.

I'm open to suggestions, however...

[kleinstadt1]

This is exactly why I made this post in the first place. Very good to know, thanks.

[jumpthru]

Plus they are tons of errors in them--I have noticed a lot of errors at least.

[Lost Wages]

After the flop, extrapolate the percentages (33% becomes 2:1) then extrapolate outs (about 13 for 2:1?). Then make sure I can account for all the outs, and that I don't count incorrect ones.

This is not going to be practical <font color="red">on the flop</font>. Even when you can see both hands, the outs will not equate to winning probability when:
1)The player in the lead on the flop has a redraw if his opponent hits an out on the turn, or
2)The player in the lead can catch a turn card which nullifies some or of his opponents outs, or
3)The player chasing can catch a turn card which, while not putting him in the lead, does give him more outs on the river, etc.

The winning percentages on the flop are calculated by enumerating each possible turn-river card combination using a program like Poker Stove (http://www.pokerstove.com).

Lost Wages