DakotaKid
08-10-2004, 12:01 AM
So I've been reading this board on and off over the last few years. I'm a man of few words, based on my posts, but I've got a question for the group...
I was just reading another post with the old scary statistic (paraphrased): "AA is only going to win 30% of hands against a table of random hands..."
My question has to do with SNG's when you raise all in preflop with this hand. I'm used to very low calling standards (low buy-ins) in SNG's, especially early, so the random hand theory holds somewhat true. I see this as a winning bet, risk 2:7 winning percent to get paid off 9:1
The EV here seems like 9/3.5=2.57 (assuming the remote chance that EVERYONE calls with a completely average distribution). If I'm off base here, please clarify.
I also don't cling to the hope that this will every happen to anyone, so I'm asking how the EV of this push ranks against n random hands, and for that matter, if instead of average hands (50th percentile) how about 60th, 70th... percentile hands played by opponents? When is this NOT a profitable move? A pure guess is when you're more than 2 smaller pocket pairs. I'm assuming anyone who's in the pot is all in with equal stacks.
Thank you everyone for years of advice!
DakotaKid
I was just reading another post with the old scary statistic (paraphrased): "AA is only going to win 30% of hands against a table of random hands..."
My question has to do with SNG's when you raise all in preflop with this hand. I'm used to very low calling standards (low buy-ins) in SNG's, especially early, so the random hand theory holds somewhat true. I see this as a winning bet, risk 2:7 winning percent to get paid off 9:1
The EV here seems like 9/3.5=2.57 (assuming the remote chance that EVERYONE calls with a completely average distribution). If I'm off base here, please clarify.
I also don't cling to the hope that this will every happen to anyone, so I'm asking how the EV of this push ranks against n random hands, and for that matter, if instead of average hands (50th percentile) how about 60th, 70th... percentile hands played by opponents? When is this NOT a profitable move? A pure guess is when you're more than 2 smaller pocket pairs. I'm assuming anyone who's in the pot is all in with equal stacks.
Thank you everyone for years of advice!
DakotaKid