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o0mr_bill0o

08-03-2004, 05:30 PM

So, the beta is over, and Party will now start taking a rake to progress the jackpot higher. Damn. However, it seems to me that there is definitely a point where, even with the added rake, the jackpot could be +EV even if the odds are highly against hitting it. First, does anyone know how much they're going to take from every pot for it? I couldn't seem to find taht information anywhere. Anyway, here are my general thoughts on it without having any of the exact numbers to back it up.

Let's consider it as just the 5000 that it has been. If you hit the jackpot, you win 2500. Let's assume that they take 1 dollar from each pot, which may or may not be true. So, you'd have to win at least once for every 2499 dollars you put in. But you don't put in money every hand, you put in money every pot you win. Let's just talk conservatively and say you win 10% of your hands, that would mean that you'd have to win the jackpot once in every 24,990 hands to make it profitable to play even with the added rake. And this doesn't factor in times where you may just be at a table where someone else hits the jackpot and you make a few bucks. Now, with the old rule that four of a kind had to be beat, I would be quite skeptical that the odds added up, or at least that they were so remote it wasn't worth taking the hit to your bankroll. However, now that the requirement is only that 10s full of Js get beat, it seems like it would almost certainly be +EV to play in the jackpot tables. And for the period at the beginning where it's 25,000 dollars to start, I can't imagine that wouldn't be +EV.

Any thoughts?

easypete

08-03-2004, 05:33 PM

Was just at the tables... got kicked off...

They had just reduced the requirement from quad 2's beaten to QQQTT or better.

Then Bam!! Bam!!

2 jackpots hit within 10 minutes of each other.

Wow.... next i see a message that my table is "closed for maintenance".

LOL

o0mr_bill0o

08-03-2004, 05:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Was just at the tables... got kicked off...

They had just reduced the requirement from quad 2's beaten to QQQTT or better.

Then Bam!! Bam!!

2 jackpots hit within 10 minutes of each other.

Wow.... next i see a message that my table is "closed for maintenance".

LOL

[/ QUOTE ]

this says TTTJJ or better... hmmm
http://www.partypoker.com/news/badbeat.html

Nottom

08-03-2004, 05:49 PM

I've played over 100K hands and would have qualified with QQQKK losing to AAAKK once and would have been the one laying the beat either once or twice (I've taken down JJJ99 and KKKJJ with quads) depending on how big the boat neads to be.

bisonbison

08-03-2004, 05:55 PM

This wasn't at a bad beat table, and I guess this wouldn't have even qualified, eh?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
5 folds, MP3 calls, CO raises, 1 fold, SB calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO checks.

Turn: (4 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP3 folds, CO calls, SB folds.

River: (6 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero shows 8s As (four of a kind, eights).
CO shows 9c 9s (four of a kind, nines).
Outcome: CO wins 14 BB.

o0mr_bill0o

08-03-2004, 06:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This wasn't at a bad beat table, and I guess this wouldn't have even qualified, eh?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
5 folds, MP3 calls, CO raises, 1 fold, SB calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO checks.

Turn: (4 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP3 folds, CO calls, SB folds.

River: (6 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero shows 8s As (four of a kind, eights).
CO shows 9c 9s (four of a kind, nines).
Outcome: CO wins 14 BB. 

[/ QUOTE ]

that would have qualified since your A kicker would play

bisonbison

08-03-2004, 06:25 PM

that would have qualified since your A kicker would play

touche.

jmark

08-03-2004, 06:29 PM

I like how CO missed about 4 BB

o0mr_bill0o

08-03-2004, 06:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I've played over 100K hands and would have qualified with QQQKK losing to AAAKK once and would have been the one laying the beat either once or twice (I've taken down JJJ99 and KKKJJ with quads) depending on how big the boat neads to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

hmmm... I feel like i've had a number of hands where I've seen JJJ-AAA come up, and i've got a pocket pair, and that would usually qualify.

Sloats

08-03-2004, 07:41 PM

No need to bet the flopped nuts. The money is going to be his. Can't Bluff the pot.

Zetack

08-03-2004, 07:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Was just at the tables... got kicked off...

They had just reduced the requirement from quad 2's beaten to QQQTT or better.

Then Bam!! Bam!!

2 jackpots hit within 10 minutes of each other.

Wow.... next i see a message that my table is "closed for maintenance".

LOL

[/ QUOTE ]

this says TTTJJ or better... hmmm
http://www.partypoker.com/news/badbeat.html

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see anything in there about the beta period being over...

--Zetack

o0mr_bill0o

08-03-2004, 09:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Was just at the tables... got kicked off...

They had just reduced the requirement from quad 2's beaten to QQQTT or better.

Then Bam!! Bam!!

2 jackpots hit within 10 minutes of each other.

Wow.... next i see a message that my table is "closed for maintenance".

LOL

[/ QUOTE ]

this says TTTJJ or better... hmmm
http://www.partypoker.com/news/badbeat.html

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see anything in there about the beta period being over...

--Zetack

[/ QUOTE ]

edit: inserting foot in mouth.... now. apparently it isn't over, i misunderstood or something.

Vern

08-04-2004, 06:11 AM

Website says 25c per raked hand, of that 22.5c goes into the jackpot pool and 2.5c goes to Party. So multiply your hands by 4, so nearly 100K hands to make it profitable.

Bad Beat Page (http://www.partypoker.com/news/badbeat.html)

Peter Harris

08-04-2004, 06:38 AM

farewell bad beat tables then; looks like i will slog it out at 1/2 without the drop.

You only get 70% of the jackpot value; 20% stays in as a seed and 10% goes to party; so to be bad beaten you will only receive 35% of whatever the jackpot is. winner and rest of the table get a pittance.

Not worth my money, i reckons.

Pete H.

Zetack

08-04-2004, 07:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Website says 25c per raked hand, of that 22.5c goes into the jackpot pool and 2.5c goes to Party. So multiply your hands by 4, so nearly 100K hands to make it profitable.

Bad Beat Page (http://www.partypoker.com/news/badbeat.html)

[/ QUOTE ]

10 percent to Party as and "administrative fee"...what complete and utter bullshit.

I'm with Peter Harris, back to the regular tables. Too bad.

--Zetack

Octopus

08-04-2004, 11:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You only get 70% of the jackpot value; 20% stays in as a seed and 10% goes to party; so to be bad beaten you will only receive 35% of whatever the jackpot is. winner and rest of the table get a pittance.

[/ QUOTE ]
You'll need to add back the value of being one of the ones receiving the pittance, but I suspect that it will not turn the tide unless the jackpot goes pretty long without a winner.

If we really want to find out the break-even point, we are going to need a better idea of how unlikely it is. To that end: In the 15,000 hands in my database, I have no qualifying hand where I was the loser.

easypete

08-04-2004, 11:22 AM

Is anybody factoring in that these tables will be a little more LP than most other tables. Better feeding grounds? The will still cold-call more often w/ anything that could make a jackpot hand.

I will watch a few tables before I jump back in. Right now, I'm in the no-play camp.

Rudbaeck

08-04-2004, 11:51 AM

Gotta admire them raking twice.

Octopus

08-04-2004, 11:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Is anybody factoring in that these tables will be a little more LP than most other tables. Better feeding grounds? The will still cold-call more often w/ anything that could make a jackpot hand.

I will watch a few tables before I jump back in. Right now, I'm in the no-play camp.

[/ QUOTE ]

My biggest problem with it is that Party's micro limit rake is already higher than just about everyone else's. Bumping that by another quarter is pretty steep.

Some numbers: At Party 1/2, I have paid 2.39BB/100 hands (!) in rake. (At Stars 1/2, that number is 1.68BB/100 hands.) Adding a quarter of rake to any hand with which I saw the flop and won would add .93BB/100 hands. So, ignoring the jackpot, I would have to be making 1BB/100 hands more than at the non-jackpot tables. This is possible (after all, we give up about the same amount to play at Party instead of some of the other sites), but unless I see a significant difference, I think I'll stick to the non-jackpot tables too.

rjc199

08-04-2004, 12:03 PM

Doesn't everybody sitting at the table get some of the money too?

Vern

08-04-2004, 01:00 PM

I have 56K hand and have one, My opponent had jacks, I had tens, and the flop had two kings. Turned a third king and rivered a rag so we each used both cards for Kings full of Jacks and I lost with Kings full of Tens.

Edit: Posted before I noticed they raised the limited to Kings full of Aces.

Vern

08-04-2004, 01:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My biggest problem with it is that Party's micro limit rake is already higher than just about everyone else's. Bumping that by another quarter is pretty steep.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since the jackpot tables only have limits of 2/4 and up now, there is no micro limit skew.

easypete

08-04-2004, 01:34 PM

Yes, a share of something like 25% of the jackpot.

But this will add less than 1cent/100hands to your win rate. Don't fall into the jackpot trap unless there's a real good reason to do so.