How to proceed with this?

[Saborion]

I'm up against A /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif and 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif on a A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif board. I have Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif for a gutshot + backdoor flush draw. I'm trying to figure out how calculate the money I make when I hit my gutshot on the draw. And I do need some help with this. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

4 times I'll turn a T for the nut straight. I'll
1: turn a non-spade T 3 times, in which case the board needs to pair for me to lose. I'll win 38 times out of 46 ~ 80 %, meaning I'll win 3*.8*(10+2+2+1) = 36 BB's.
2: turn the T /images/graemlins/spade.gif 1 time. Now I'll lose if the river card is a flush or if it pairs the board. I'll win 29 times out of 46 ~ 60 %, meaning I'll win 3*.6*(10+2+2+1) = 27.

Ok, so far so good, right? Now, that means that 3 times I'll lose 20 % of the time, and 1 time I'll lose 40 % of the time. Right? How do we weigh all this?

[Nottom]

Don't forget the time when you turn the T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and river the K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif for a big payday.

[Saborion]

I did forget that. Thanks, and, damn you! It'll give me more stuff to take into considerations. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Well, not quite true since that'll happen so infrequently that it can be neglected huh?

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, not quite true since that'll happen so infrequently that it can be neglected huh?

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno, if it means you will get 3 way capped action on the river it might have a noticable impact on the bottom line.

[Saborion]

Yah, and it won't be that hard to include in the calculations. I'll compate it with and without and see if it do have a noticable impact, but it should have.

Now, I just need someone to tell me how to continue on with this. /images/graemlins/smile.gif