hand against a tight raiser

[kgrad5]

MP2 is a tight raiser, so i right away put him on a pp or AKs

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Hero ...

DINGDINGDING, my spidey sense is tingling, im very sure he has aces, is there any way i should fold here? would this be a good fold or would it go against everything ed miller says?

[DeathDonkey]

The only hand he would 3 bet with preflop that your ahead of is AKs of clubs in this spot. How confident in your read are you though? No way he plays TT or AJs this way? If that's true, you can fold. But at Party 0.50/1 I probably call down. I think JJ is more likely than AA btw.

-DeathDonkey

[Blindfolk]

He has jacks. That's why he called on the flop.

[kgrad5]

he could have AKc, kk, jj perhaps qq too? all of those hands are bad for me with AKc being the best, at these limits a turn raise usually means strength right? so even if im not 100% sure on my read (havent been at the table long) the turn raise shows a great deal of strength.. would it be a travesty to fold? when i can see a showdown for at most 2 more BB? i dont think the pot is even big enough to draw to my 2 outs..

[kgrad5]

he 3 bet, i capped

[Aviston]

As a tight player, his 3 bet preflop screams JJ - AA, or AK. As a 'tight raiser', his turn raise doesn't exactly imply AKs (I don't really see a tight raiser raising the turn against one player with a flush draw). This means he most likely has JJ, KK, or AA which puts you far behind. I think folding is advisable in this situation (against another player, I'd have to call and check-call the river).

[Blindfolk]

Yeah, and he checked because if he had Jacks, he flopped a full house. I would be surprised if he showed aces since you would expect him to bet out on the flop with aces.

[tech]

If he is really *that* tight, then I would not have capped preflop since you are heads-up. On the turn you are probably behind (my guess is JJ), but you cannot fold this heads-up. You have to see a showdown.

[kgrad5]

oh whoops i thought you said preflop, disreguard heh, but his call did seem strange but he might not want to scare me off with a raise

[kgrad5]

Hero called, River brought 7 for full boat
hero checked villain bet, hero called, villain showed AA
i think i made the right play calling this down even if it smelled like a bigger pair..

[tardigrade]

This heads-up situation seemed simple enough that I could actually run some numbers on it. I'm not sure if I have an optimal solution to it, but here's my best shot...

IF you knew with 100% certainty that your opponent would only 3-bet with JJ,QQ,KK,AK (which you don't, but pretend you do), then with the jack in the flop it works out that you are ahead precisely 50% of the time (there are just as many AK combos as all of the remaining pair combos, and you can only beat AK).

This means that you can't bet or raise for value, since it's at best just a coin flip, and with draws left, it's worse since his draws are better than yours. The only reason to bet or raise would be to induce a fold or possibly get information.

The other interesting thing is that if any A or K shows up, you are going to lose with 100% certainty unless you pull another Q. Your odds of getting that Q are so below any conceivable pot odds you'd get, that an A or K on the turn or river makes you fold to any bet.

The only way you are ahead is if your opponent has AK. So let's just consider that.

You can't bet for value. You also can not induce a fold on the flop, since pot odds prohibit your opponent from folding AK for a small bet. You could bet for information, but only if you would fold for a raise. Pot odds won't allow you to fold for a small bet which could be a bluff 1 time in 5.5, so the information isn't useful. Basically, betting does nothing for you but increase your variance. Check-call is your best move on the flop based on this logic.

Now, on the turn your opponent no longer has odds to call a bet with AK. There is a 6.7% chance of an A or K on the river, so if you bet and an AK folds, you save the loss of the entire pot 6.7% of the time that your opponent indeed has AK, so 3.35% of the time you save the whole pot, and 50% of the time you lose one or more bets (unless you get a queen on the river, which I'll ignore). 3.35% of the current pot is about 0.19BB, which isn't worth risking 1 or more full BB for half of the time. If you bet for information, and he raises, then it's going to be another bet to you in an 8.75BB pot. If your opponent bluffs with AK 1 time in 4.425, then pot odds force you to call, so the information is worthless. Check-call again.

On the river, if an ace or king comes up, check-fold. If a queen comes, well, you know what to do. Otherwise, you will win the showdown exactly 50% of the time. If you bet and AK folds, you gain nothing, so you only gain if AK bluff-raises you or makes a crying call. In that case you'll make one or two extra bets. The other 50% of the time, a bet will lose you at least one BB. Unless your guy calls and raises AK with the exact same frequency he calls and raises when he has you beat, you're behind here. Check-call.

It looks to me like check-call all the way to showdown unless an A,K or Q comes up seems optimal. Of course there are a lot of assumptions built into what your opponent will 3-bet with and with what frequency your opponent will bluff, but if they all hold, then I think this analysis is valid. In the real world ... well, who knows?

[chief444]

I would cap pf almost all of the time with QQ. This is a time I would not...heads-up against a "tight raiser" as you put it.

If you're sure of your read (JJ-AA or AK) then this flop is no good for you. But I still think you have to lead the turn. This is honestly close IMO as to whether you call down or fold. There are some "rocks" I play against that I would lay this down to the turn raise. This sounds weak tight but there are some opponents who just will not make a play at you here and their turn raise can mean only one thing...you have two outs. I think in your case though (online, .5/1, probably not 100% on your read) you played it well.

[kgrad5]

wasnt sure about my read, had been at the table for an hour and only other times he raised was JJ and KK (he hit a set with the J's), could have just meant crappy cards other then those

[chief444]

Definitely well played then.

[tardigrade]

I goofed up the turn draw odds for AK (used 1 in x instead of percent as percent, but I think the end result is the same, but a closer decision).