Throwing away QQ with no overcards

[arkady]

Another one of my crazy folds, but I felt that the stack size of the poor player was important.

Absolute Poker 5/10 Hold'em (7 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG <font color="purple">(VeryLooseBetsWithNothing)</font> calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB <font color="purple">(SeemsReasonable)</font> calls, BB calls, UTG <font color="purple">(VeryLooseBetsWithNothing)</font> calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SeemsReasonable checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">VeryLooseBetsWithNothing bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, SeemsReasonable calls, BB folds, VeryLooseBetsWithNothing calls.

Turn: (8 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SeemsReasonable checks, VeryLooseBetsWithNothing checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">SeemsReasonable raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">VeryLooseBetsWithNothing 3-bets $26 (All-In)</font>, <font color="red"> Hero FOLDS </font> , SeemsReasonable calls.

River: (14 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: 14 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 13.80 BB, between SeemsReasonable and VeryLooseBetsWithNothing.</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: 0.20 BB, returned to SeemsReasonable.</font>

Any guesses on who had what?
Who do you think is the one to be afraid of here?

[Talex]

Wacky. I think the stack size of the poor player is important, but in totally the other direction. I would have assumed that given his 'bets with nothing' tendency UTG is in desperation mode and trying to buy a hand on a weak flop. You may be beat by Reasonable and J8, or maybe he's one of those players that seem to like limping jacks because they're 'always' beat. Mostly he seems to have picked up a jack with perhaps a flush draw. Forgot to add the possibility of a slowplayed set . I just couldn't have laid this down. I cap the turn because I want Reasonable paying me now if he's drawing and can get away on the river.

-Tim

[Guido]

I don't like this one. I don't think UTG is the one to be afraid of. He probably has a pair but not much more. If you have to be afraid of anybody at all it's the SB but what could he have? A slowplayed set? You said he was reasonable so 2 pair doesn't seem logical on a board like this. I would put him on AJo or something like that and that's why I would cap, especially because it's shorthanded. I don't think the 3-bet from UTG means much. I would check behind when the SB calls. I would at least call the 3-bet because I don't think you're behind if you are at all.

Guido

[arkady]

I am going to tell you that I was not particularly concerned with UTG as he has shown tendencies that would discredit any of his raises.

[Alobar]

so far it looks like I'm the only one who agrees with the fold. What kind of hand is a reasonable player going to call a raise with from the SB, and then two cold on the flop to checkraise you on the turn? AJs maybe, but I think he's prolly got the set.

[The Armchair]

I would have put the reasonable player on A/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif, and figured that the very loose player could be full of it. In any event, I'd cap that turn, as I think I am way ahead of the reasonable player, and at least this way I'm not drawing to a dry side pot.

The very loose player could have two pair or could have junk. I'm thinking Jx two-pair.

[Guido]

So why are you so scared of the C/R? The 3-bet doesn't mean much IMO. I think you should only fold when you are very sure he has a set. In all other cases I would at least call and probably cap.

Guido

[Guido]

Don't forget it's 7 handed. Folding is too easy and you have to be very sure he has a set to make a fold correct.

Thanks,

Guido

P.S. Lance Armstrong rocks...

[Talex]

99, 1010, I'd say AK for a lot of players, and I think AJ is a real possibility. If he's reasonable he doesn't have any faith in the maniac's raise on the flop and the bet is sort of assumed from the preflop raiser, so he could be calling with all kinds of stuff. When he checkraises the turn he could have a jack, a set, nines, tens, or AK and is probing the waters to see if his overcards are good, especially if it's AKs with a flush draw. I think there's a lot of hands queens beat here.

-Tim

[Holm Fries]

[ QUOTE ]
99, 1010, I'd say AK for a lot of players, and I think AJ is a real possibility. If he's reasonable he doesn't have any faith in the maniac's raise on the flop and the bet is sort of assumed from the preflop raiser, so he could be calling with all kinds of stuff. When he checkraises the turn he could have a jack, a set, nines, tens, or AK and is probing the waters to see if his overcards are good, especially if it's AKs with a flush draw. I think there's a lot of hands queens beat here.

-Tim

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too. I can't think of an instance where I would not at least call this down. Doesn't the small stack size discredit the three bet rather than make it scarier? This is the third post today where our hero mucks QQ with no overcards. Worlds are colliding....

[arkady]

Thoughts: Interesting responses, seems like the overwhelming majority is against folding when I did (with the exception of Alobar /images/graemlins/smile.gif). I am not entirely convinced that given the board that I could expect a decent opponent doing what he did with some of the suggested hands, but at the same time I dont think I can ever be convinced of that. Given the consensus not showing this down seems like a mistake...? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Results:
Loony toony in the head showed: 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Seems reasonable: 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif


I still dont know....

[Yeknom58]

To call 2 cold with AJo on the flop is certainly not reasonable. He could have AcJc but you said AJo. I'm not saying he can't be ahead, he could easily still be in 1st place, I'm just saying it's definietly NOT AJo or his read is clearly wrong.

[Yeknom58]

I pretty much never give credit to an all in especially one who is known to be laggy. So he could literally have anything.

Now on to the reasonable guy. People that seem reasonable can still be pretty loose in the blinds and call with hands like 9Ts, JTs, A5s, and J8s especially when the pot starts to get pretty big. I also know of lots of players that will CC with AA-JJ in this spot so you could be totally beat with AA/KK/JJ.

So this is how I see it. He's not going to call 2 cold with only overcards and he's probably not going to CR the turn with only a flush draw, and he might do it with a double draw. So I'm thinking he could have (hands you beat) A/K/Q-Js, and sometimes A5s and 9Ts or (hand you don't beat) AA/KK/JJ/88/55/33 and sometimes J8. So mattering on your more specific read of the reasonable guy, I'm thinking you have to be pretty confident to fold. I'm thinking you should call down and sometimes be raising.

[sthief09]

funny... after reading this fold, I expected to see it say "Party Poker 5/10" at the top.

so yeah, I don't like this fold at all. I wouldn't have that much of a problem if you folded the river with all this action, but considering that most of the time you'll have some outs, and usually 8 of them, I can't justify folding the turn.

[balkii]

my biggest problem with the fold is the description of the player: " Seems reasonable"

not a good enough read to make me lay it down, especially with a looney in the hand - they tend to rub off on others

[Nate tha' Great]

That's a pretty scary board. He might have something like a pair, a flush draw, or even a pair and a flush draw. Good fold.

[arkady]

now that is some high quality mockery.

[joker122]

I've already read the results but...

"Seems Reasonable" is the one to be afraid of, for obvious reasons and not so obvious reasons. If he's reasonable, he's not calling 2 cold on the flop with overcards, especially against a pf raiser because his overcards might not even be good. He could have 2 big clubs, but when he comes alive on the turn we can rule out a flush draw. It looks like a flopped set for SB. One other possible hand is AcJc, however.

There's a problem though. He could put you on a hand like AK or AQ and be trying to push you off of it with "veryloose's" unwitting aid. Given your description though, I think the chances of this are small.

I think folding this turn is correct no matter what the results were.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
I've already read the results but...

"Seems Reasonable" is the one to be afraid of, for obvious reasons and not so obvious reasons. If he's reasonable, he's not calling 2 cold on the flop with overcards, especially against a pf raiser because his overcards might not even be good. He could have 2 big clubs, but when he comes alive on the turn we can rule out a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

A /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif
K /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif
T /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif
9 /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif

Those four hands could and probably would be played exactly this way by a "reasonable" player, so that's 4 hands versus 9 combinations that flopped a set. That's enough of an overlay to call down, and most players don't play nearly that tight.

[Yeknom58]

"they tend to rub off on others "

This is another good point.

[Alobar]

Doesn't the fact hero has to call 2 more bets instead of just one, change the situation any? Wouldn't this raise the % you'd need to be ahead in order to call? or does this not matter

[tolbiny]

Doesn't the fact hero has to call 2 more bets instead of just one, change the situation any? Wouldn't this raise the % you'd need to be ahead in order to call? or does this not matter

i think it depends on how good the Sb is, but with the UTG almost all in and willing to through his money aways the sb could be using his raise to put more pressure on you, which makes a semi-bluff an even stronger possibility.

[Nate tha' Great]

Assuming that you decide to call down regardless of what cards come, you'll lose 2.6 BB those times that you're behind and win 15 BB those times that you're ahead.

Against the specific range of hands that I've identified, and a random broadway or pair from the all-in player, you have (booting up PokerStove....) 19% equity.

So the EV from calling down is
-2.6 BB x 81% = -2.11 BB
+15 BB x 19% = +2.85 BB
============
+0.74 BB

Your fold cost you about $7.50, and that's with some very conservative assumptions about BB's potential range of holdings. I suspect that against an actual, real life online opponent, your equity is something more like 35%.

EDIT: missed the fact that it will cost him 2.6 BB to call down, rather than 2.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't the fact hero has to call 2 more bets instead of just one, change the situation any? Wouldn't this raise the % you'd need to be ahead in order to call? or does this not matter

i think it depends on how good the Sb is, but with the UTG almost all in and willing to through his money aways the sb could be using his raise to put more pressure on you, which makes a semi-bluff an even stronger possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I would agree with this if the reasonable player acted after the loose player, then his raise could be trying to push you off your hand. But in this hand he checkraises you, he can't really expect that the loose player is going to make it 3 to go. So under normal circumstnaces if all you had to do was call his CR because you think you have enough of a chance to be ahead, now you have to call 2 bets, doesn't that mean you have to be even MORE sure you have a chance to be ahead?

[bunky9590]

Without him Jumping up and down, flapping his arms, running around nakedscreaming "I have a set!" (and actually showing it to me) You couldn't pull those Queens from my cold dead hands until after the show down.

[Alobar]

I just thought of something. If you call UTGs $26 all in, can the BB cap it? If he can, then the times he has the set you actually stand to lose 4BB not 2.6BB

[Nate tha' Great]

You'd lose 3.6 BB, not 4.0 BB, but, yeah, that changes things. In fact, if your equity really is just 19%, you're at almost exactly breakeven (btw, capping it yourself would be the better way to go, since there's some chance that a timid player would check the river fearing JJ, or another scare card that came like a K, an A, or a /images/graemlins/club.gif).

I still think that you're going to win way more than 19% of the time in real life, as other random pairs + flush draws will play it this way.

[Nate tha' Great]

I'll concede that this one is much closer than I thought, because of the presence of the all-in player, which render a lot of BB's potential semibluffs ineffectual. He has to have a hand has a chance being the best hand at showdown, but also has at least some chance of being best without further improvement.

[tolbiny]

normally you wouldnt bank on the utg three betting to push you out, but with only 1.5 BB's left or so i would usually expect that he would put them all in at the same time.

[arkady]

[ QUOTE ]
because of the presence of the all-in player, which render a lot of BB's potential semibluffs ineffectual

[/ QUOTE ]

that is very very close to what I was thinking when I made the fold and the fear of him capping it, made the choice raise or fold. This reply of yours seems more along the line than your initial one that made me cry and want my mommy.

[arkady]

yes, he most certainly can!